Thursday June 27 2024 Forecast (7:46AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

After an active night for a good portion of the region with showers and thunderstorms, including a complex of storms that caused a swath of wind damage in CT, RI, and southern MA, we are going to get a break today. The last of the showers exit the eastern shores first thing this morning, then it’s a clearing trend that follows as drier air moves in. But one more trough has to move through the region from northwest to southeast during the last few hours of daylight, and that will likely trigger at least a broken to solid but narrow band of clouds with vertical development, which can be tall enough in spots to release one more shower (very low risk of thunderstorm). These should be the exception, not the rule, and if you do get one it will be short-duration, most likely under 30 minutes. Most likely time for this is 4PM to 8PM from northwest to southeast across the WHW forecast area, with the greatest chance in the northern and western portions of the region. Shower or not, dry air overtakes the area tonight and is with us through Friday – a sparkling early summer day with mild air and low humidity, along with a nice breeze. As previously mentioned, we are in a progressive weather pattern, and the next trough and frontal system will be moving through our region over the weekend, but that doesn’t mean we’re losing both days to overcast, rainy weather. Saturday will be a rain-free daytime with just some clouds moving in at times ahead of an approaching warm front. It’s Saturday night when a round of showers and possible thunderstorms move in, but first to the west and north, eventually working through more of the region. But the bulk of this may occur during the overnight hours. Sunday will be the more unsettled day with a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms in a very humid air mass, until a cold front finally passes by. It may take much of the day for that front to get all the way across the region, and we can fine-tune those details as we get closer to and into the weekend with upcoming updates. As we welcome July on Monday, it looks like we’ll have a cooler / drier air mass in place, but with a chilly pool of air crossing our region aloft, that can be a trigger for at least the development of clouds and possible some diurnally-driven instability showers – another aspect of the forecast to be detailed as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Early showers eastern coastal areas, otherwise clouds give way to sun west to east, then additional clouds with a slight chance of a passing brief shower late-day from northwest to southeast. Highs 80-87. DP starts in 60s, ends in 50s. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late-day.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP falls to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. DP lower 50s. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Late-day showers possible mainly well west and north of Boston. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. DP rises back over 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms become more likely from west to east late evening and overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely in the early to mid morning. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. DP 60+ much of day, lowering late. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. DP 55 or lower. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Pop-up showers possible. Highs 76-83. DP sub-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

Independence Day falls right in the middle of this forecast period which will be important for many travel / vacation / outdoor plans. The weather pattern features a west to northwest flow, starting out dry with low humidity, eventually with a warming trend and increasing humidity, but it looks like a mainly dry pattern, in terms of rain-chances, with shower and thunderstorm opportunities finally increasing toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

Typical July pattern, seasonable warmth on average, a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, and rain-free most of the time.

65 thoughts on “Thursday June 27 2024 Forecast (7:46AM)”

  1. Crazy 30 minutes this morning . I got awoke with my phone going crazy with a loud severe thunderstorm warning at 11:59 & destructive winds up to 80mph destructive winds & to take cover. It came in quick loud thunder , house lit up like a Xmas tree , wind was insane & rain was heavy ! Luckily it was very fast moving . Got my haircut in Halifax this morning where I came across closed roads & got my haircut in the dark as they had no power . I was told by the DPW town of pembroke has lots of down trees . I admit , I was actually nervous when this thing came through as it meant buisness

      1. Yeah he’s the best & he just turned 80 . One of the guys was cutting on the sidewalk . I’m hearing major issues in Duxbury & it’s a blessing that this was quick as if it went any longer it would have been very bad .

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    What a lightning show last night around here.
    Earlier evening storms were worse here than the “main” event that came through around 11-Midnight. I know the late
    storms were bad to the south, but here simply not so.

    Although earlier storms featured down pours and frequent lightning, I would NOT categorize them as severe. not at all.

    Pete was phenomenal last night keeping up with that line down to our South! Kudos Pete!! OUTSTANDING!!!!!

    We made 88 yesterday with dp as high as 71 early last evening.

    Over night low: 66

    Currently: 68

    Ocean temperature: 64.6 (Boston buoy)

    PS TK do you know when we might know for sure that
    last night’s wind event was a derecho? Many thanks

    PPS Will there be a NWS team investigating the tornado
    warned area from last night.

    Pete wasn’t sure, but did say that it cold have been a spin Gustnado from the out flowing down drafts and not a classic tornado.

    Something in the order of this:

    Tornadoes sometimes can be tucked within a subtle weak echo region (WER) on the front forward flank of an organized bow containing high precipitation (HP) supercell characteristics

    Many thanks

  4. Thanks TK
    WOW what a line of thunderstorms that came through CT RI and areas south of Boston! As I said last night this is the strongest winds I have seen in a thunderstorm since the overnight severe weather outbreak of February 2016. Thankfully I only lost a few branches from my lilock bush. I thought there was going to be more damage the way that wind gusted as the storm came in.

    1. I guess so.

      Texted my daughter, but she’s probably still asleep.

      Wondering how the dog did with the thunder/lightning that SSK described above ….

      1. I probably would have slept through it Tom if not for my phone as it made the amber alert loud signal & I knew obviously it could not be good , I actually though it was a tornado alert , but it was for the severe thunderstorm with destruction alert

        1. You all got the brunt of it. Glad all is well.

          Seriously, the Northern part of it up here was not that bad at all. 🙂

      2. Our dog could NOT be comforted and often vomited!!!
        Our guy passed long ago after being with us for 16 years!

        As my wife always says DOG is GOD spelled backwards.

    1. I am so sorry I missed Pete.

      JPD like you, we had an amazing light show as the storms went south of us. It was probably the most intense and long lived distant lightning I’ve ever seen.

  11. Just catching up. So glad everyone is safe but what a mess. My son in lincoln RI sent pics. He said same as JJ and Sue and others. The town is a mess.

  14. Looks like the worst of the storms passed about 10-15 miles south of the StormHQ World Headquarters Compund last night. I was working through it all (and quite busy at that). We did pick up another 1.04″ of rain here, putting me over 4″ for June (4.03″), and over 35″ for the year (35.18″). 30-year normal through the end of June is 24.97″

    Switching gears – the system way out in the Atlantic is still rather disorganized, but the models are pretty unanimous that it will get its act together quickly. As I said yesterday, it will likely stay pretty far south, only slowly gaining latitude once it is in the Caribbean. If it becomes a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands, it will become only the 2nd hurricane to develop in the month of June east of the Caribbean. The only previous one was Storm #2 in 1933, which became a hurricane on June 27 a little southeast of Trinidad and Tobago. 1933 of course has the highest ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) of any Atlantic season on record, so this is not the season you want as a precedent.

      1. Oh my. You are all ok though????. Sorry if you’ve answered I’m in Hopkinton for a yearly checkup so reading sporadically

  16. The NWS is experimenting with a new site for the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS). You can go to the legend on the right and switch between current observations and the long range flood.

    https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/mhx#@=-71.5030935,42.0249133,7.4422788&b=topographic&g=obsFcst,1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!0!0!0!0!0,0.5,1!1!1!1!0,0,0&ab=0,0,#D94B4A,1,1,1,#cccccc,1,0,0,#B243B1,1,0,0,#98E09A,1&a=hydrologic,0.35&s=0,0,0.9,0.9&n=false,#72afe9,0.9,0,0.9,0,0.9&p=false,0.75,0,7,0,1,2024,6,27,0&d=0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF&q=wfo%3Abox

  17. Short range guidance nailed last night’s main event after under-forecasting the convergence line storms preceding.

    The rotation and tornado warning was no surprise. A low pressure circulation was present, providing shear.

    Main event probably to be classified a “derecho”.

    1. Thank you TK.

      So then was the initial stuff what you described in the blog yesterday as storms firing along the sea breeze from from the wind off the waters from our South and SouthWest?

      If so, you NAILED that sucker!!!

      thanks

      1. The storms on the sea breeze boundary were a little more widespread and persistent than I envisioned they would be when I wrote the discussion. HRRR actually misfired on that a bit. The main event was pretty much as I expected it to be, but maybe in eastern areas stayed a little further south than I initially thought. Still the general idea was something that verified. HRRR did a much better job with that part of the event.

  18. Question also. The initial storms trained only a few miles north of my area of sutton but still through sutton for 2-3 hours. That was 6:00-8:00ish. Did those storms impact energy in that area keeping the main event just to our south??

  20. From WG Calendar…

    On this date (or more like on these dates) June 26-28 1954…

    Heavy rain from the remains of Hurricane Alice helped fuel the Rio Grande River’s worst flooding event on record. 27.1 inches of rain fell at Pandale, Texas. At least 55 people were killed. The crest at Laredo shattered the former record by 12.6 feet. On the second day of the storm, June 27, the US-90 bridge over the Pecos River was covered by 30 feet of water!!!

    1953 through 1955 saw some of the most unusual, rare, and in many cases unprecedented weather events for the country as a whole. A very dynamic period of time.

  21. Tornado confirmed from Lincoln RI to Cumberland RI to North Attleboro. Glad we went to the basement!

      1. Me too. I was still up but I got Ivy up and we went down to the basement with our dog. I guess we are becoming the new tornado ally. 3 in the past 12 months maybe 4.

        1. So smart to head to the basement. And yikes I didn’t realize you’d had that many. We have had three or maybe four in the nine years we have lived in this house. In the six plus decades before, I never had to take shelter. Someone else mentioned the new tornado ally yesterday. I think you are onto something

          I am now kicking myself for not calling son and DIL. I know they get up before the crack of dawn but it really doesn’t outweigh the risk

          1. State averages three tornadoes a year according to Eric. North Attleboro has had 3 in the past 11 months!

  22. Sue, Glad you and your family are ok. The returns on the velocity scan were very bright over Halifax.

    1. Thanks North, and I am glad you and your family are safe also. I asked my neighbor who works for the highway department if he thought we would get our power back tonight and his response was “I don’t know, its bad”.

      1. Oh noooooooo. Sue, we have two small generators. I know we are a distance away but if you think it’s worth the trip, they are yours to use.

  24. Does that mean it will not be classified as a derecho or can a portion also be a derecho. I have no idea how that works.

    1. It still can be called that (if it qualifies by definition). A system that is a derecho can produce a single or multiple tornadoes as well.

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