Sunday June 30 2024 Forecast (8:16AM)

154 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

We finish June today with another “unsettled” day, but not a washed-out one. The overnight showers exit southeastern areas early to mid morning and we get through several rain-free hours while we wait for re-ignition of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front today. This looks like it will take place in northern and western portions of the WHW area early to mid afternoon then progress east southeastward as a broken to solid line of showers and thunderstorms. While coverage looks high percentage, duration does not. When it visits any particular spot, we’re looking at a 30 to 90 minute duration of rain, and shorter duration of heaviest rain, but enough that some brief flooding can occur in areas prone to it. Storms do have the potential to produce some damaging wind gusts and small hail as well. Rotation risk is low but non-zero, and we’d have to watch for a cell that was separated from the line – maybe an isolated cell ahead of it or just to the south of it – for that to be most likely to occur. If one of those cells were to get going, they would also be capable of producing larger hail. After the initial line starts to head out later this afternoon, a follow-up broken line should impact areas mostly from I-90 southward early this evening. Then it’s onto the dry-out tonight with a more comfortable air mass replacing the muggy one we have in place today. The outlook heading into and to the Independence Day holiday is pretty much unchanged. Monday’s a comfortable day with low humidity, but upper level low pressure will trigger diurnal cloud development and perhaps a few pop-up showers. Tuesday and Wednesday look stellar with lots of sun, manageable humidity, and a warming trend as high pressure moves in, then shifts off to the east. The holiday looks ok to me! There will be a weak frontal boundary heading through – current timing looks like morning hours – when we have to watch for a couple passing showers, and the balance of the day looks dry and warm with moderate humidity. Fine-tuning to come on that, of course.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Showers exit the South Coast region by mid morning. Showers and thunderstorms visit many areas this afternoon from west northwest to east southeast, and one additional shower or storm possible mainly I-90 southward this evening. Any storms can be strong to locally severe, but most locations will see a lesser version. Highs 79-86, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+, but starts to lower from northwest to southeast late day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW late-day and evening from northwest to southeast.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point falls through 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Pop-up showers possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. DP middle to upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. DP near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A possible morning shower. Highs 81-88. DP near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-8)

The extended holiday weekend through July 7 features more humidity and a few shower and thunderstorm chances with a trough of low pressure moving through the region. Fair weather follows to end this period. Temperatures generally around seasonable levels.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)

West to northwest flow at upper levels. A few disturbances pass by with shower / t-storm chances, but otherwise mostly dry weather, with some variation in temperature, averaging near to a little above normal for the period.

154 thoughts on “Sunday June 30 2024 Forecast (8:16AM)”

  1. Nashua is reporting 79 with a 78 dewpoint right now. Knee-jerk reaction is that the dewpoint sensor is broken. I’m at our office right on the Nashua River in downtown Nashua, and we’re currently 80 with a 77 dewpoint, so it is in fact, a valid ob. In fact, there are quite a few obs along the Merrimack River from Manchester to Lowell with dewpoints in the 75-78 range.

  3. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=taw&band=Sandwich&length=24

    Yesterday, in the back of my mind, I’ll admit I was thinking, perhaps it’s here where Beryl surprises, in not strengthening further, because early in a hurricane season, storms tend to struggle approaching the lesser Antilles.

    NOPE !! Look at that eye.

    I’m just stunned by the whole atmosphere down there. Yes, the water’s unusually warm, and yes, Beryl is small, but the atmosphere being so unsheared, conducive to this development, in late June, wow !!

    I’ve seen some other examples of June development, but I need to think about those other examples because they were in the western Caribbean and the gulf, I believe. I think they are a little more climate friendly to development in June. This is way out in the Atlantic.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK

    SPC update coiming in a few minutes. We shall see if there are any change TK covered the threats well on his discussionn.

  6. Beryl is grabbing the headlines, and deservedly so, but there’s another story about the tropics out there that nobody is talking about – the complete lack of activity across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Those 4 basins (N. Pacific/C.Pacific/E.Pacific.Indian) normal account for 9 named systems, 4 hurricanes/typhoons, and 2 major hurricanes/typhoons by the end of June. So far, they have produced 2 named storms and 1 typhoon. That’s it. This is the latest we’ve ever gone without a named storm in the Eastern/Central Pacific. The first storm and only typhoon in the Western Pacific formed on May 22, the 5th latest start on record.

  8. Thanks TK
    Quick look at the latest SREF the only areas in New England with a low tornado risk are in parts of VT, NH, and ME.

    1. They have increased the wind threat.

      That wind contour and the enhanced contour line up exactly.

      Tornado contour stayed the same at 2%.

  12. Greatest buoyancy is possible over the coastal plain between the
    Delmarva peninsula and eastern MA. Wind profiles will be largely
    unidirectional from the southwest or west-southwest, limiting
    low-level hodograph size and overall vertical shear. However,
    strengthening flow aloft with northward extent will support
    increasing potential for a few supercells northward from the
    northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, and especially across ME

    Great (last sentence) !

    While southern New England has the wind threat, the 12z HRRR parameters for supercells and tornadic parameters are noticeable right up here where we are and the simulated radar shows some cells. Lovely ! And the dps rose overnight to 70F.

    And the sun is breaking out. ……..

  14. Sun is not our friend today. Sun will only further destabilize the atmosphere. Sun is in and out where I am.

  15. 80, 73 here with sun poking out here and there. It really looks like the sun wants to come out. YUCK!!!!
    Can you say FUEL?

    I almost shit when I saw the enhanced area and I thought, oh crap the tornado risk must have moved up to 5%. Thankfully, NO!
    Still remains at 2%, so that is a good thing.

  16. What that is telling me is strong to damaging winds is the top threat with these thunderstorms secondary threats are hail and tornado. If you have property damage like we saw with the thunderstorms Wednesday it doesn’t matter if it from straight line winds or a tornado.

  17. June 30th

    How many times has Boston’s dps been 73F or higher already ?

    All 3 afternoon’s during the heatwave. Today. Has there been another day ??

    And I’m looking at the medium and long range with hints of a trof to our west and the western Atlantic ridge just to our southwest and deep, rich tropical flow.

    And the ocean is to warm some more.

    There have been some real crisp interludes like Friday.

    Overall though, very high dps quite frequently, seemingly.

    2. Too many Tom. Too Many!!!
      And they just want to go HIGH.

      Your theory about the moisture in the soil is quite interesting
      and could be a major factor. AND we keep adding moisture to it!!!

  20. I was surprised the low tornado risk was not showing on the latest SREF run for SNE. Still I would not be surprised somewhere in SNE there is not a tornado warning today.

  21. A week ago Friday SREF was not indicating a tornado risk nor was the SPC and there was an EF0 tornado north of me in Harwinton which was caught on video. I am not saying there will be a tornado in SNE today but it is still to me a non zero risk.

  22. Quick peak at the latest 13z HRRR run it wants to bring two lines of storms in. One between 2-5pm which looks like pre frontal action and the next with the cold front between 6-8pm

      1. However, it also looks like any tornado risk would be from
        the 1st line. 2nd line routine stuff? Who knows.

  24. It seems that all of the models have some degree or other tornado threat, but the main threat is spread all over the place. IN other words, NO model agreement on placement of main threat.

  26. Norton NWS discussion

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
    10 AM update…

    The main concern this afternoon is severe weather. Already a
    pretty unstable environment this morning with MLCAPES up to 1500
    J/kg across the interior. Lots of breaks in the low clouds away
    from the south coast will lead to further heating. This
    combined with rich low level moisture with dewpoints in the low-
    mid 70s will result in MLCAPES likely increasing to 2000-3000
    J/kg which is rather robust instability for SNE. Combined with
    deep layer shear 40-50 kt is a very favorable environment for
    organized storms to develop including supercells if there are
    any discrete storms. CAMs indicate the most likely storm mode
    will be line segments or even a QLCS as linear forcing ahead of
    the cold front and pre-frontal trough results in storms
    organizing into a line. Damaging winds will be the primary
    threat, but large hail or an isolated tornado will be possible
    with any discrete supercells although this is a lesser threat. A
    QLCS tornado is also possible given orientation of increasing
    0-3km shear. In addition to severe potential there will be a
    heavy rain and localized flash flood threat with any training of
    storms.

    It appears storms will initially fire along a pre-frontal trough
    early to mid afternoon in the interior before approaching the
    south coast late afternoon/early evening. Given the marine layer
    near the south coast would expect storms to weaken somewhat as
    they approach the coast but strong shear may help to sustain
    them longer than they otherwise would be in a weaker shear
    environemnt. Some of the CAMs also indicating a second line of
    storms with the cold front late afternoon and evening.

  27. There is the reason from the text you just posted from NWS Boston why the upgrade to an enhanced risk happened.

  28. I think we need discreet cells for much trouble today. We’ll have to see if any actually form. Not thinking linear convection produces a wide swath of problems but there could be a few straight-line and/or downburst wind issues.

  29. Not sure what model NWS was showing in their website “weather story” section, but I have a one-word opinion on it: “overdone”. My thoughts are outline in my discussion above and I will elaborate in the comments section as the day goes on.

    Re: Beryl. Major impact for the small islands of the southeastern Caribbean. The tiny nature of the system makes it less likely to impact other areas significantly, but a stormy Wednesday in Jamaica seems likely.

    Also think the NHC may need to adjust for a more rapid weakening after an initial powerful peak. Conditions are not as favorable down the road for the storm to stay jacked up.

    Did anybody get a chance to check out the 2 major June hurricanes from the 1950s and 1960s I posted yesterday? I know a lot of people will say a major hurricane in June is “unprecedented”, but it’s not. It’s “rare”, not “unprecedented”. The media needs to learn those definitions. It’s a responsibility that falls on them and they often neglect. 😉 But hey, makes the story sound more sexy doesn’t it? Just telling it like it is, as I always do, and always will. #science … #facts .. #nohype .. #nocherrypickinginformation

    I will add though that having a major hurricane in the position that this one is in is something we have not seen this early during our time of observing weather with any degree of accuracy. So that aspect is very unusual.

  34. Timing for this area? Granddaughter plans to ride. I’m wondering how 1:00-3:00 look. Thank you

  38. More on Beryl:

    Steve Bowen
    @SteveBowenWx
    There have been 24 Atlantic storms in the Satellite Era (1966-present) which have gone through a >70kt rapid intensification within a 36-hour period. (Min start of 35kt)

    All of those storms originally formed in Aug, Sep, Oct, or Nov.

    Until Beryl.

    #Beryl is doing this in June.

  40. In Vilnius. Perfect day all around. Sort of a Cultural Celebration Day. Stood about 50 feet from Lithuanian President with an absolutely clear view … although there was a Secret Service guy standing behind me who made The Hulk look like skinny wimp.

    Weather: temp hit 85, clear, sunny, winds 5-10 mph. Light out 4 AM-10 PM. Walked 8 miles.

    Looks like some action today in SNE.

    To TK: Agree it is not unprecedented, but at the same time I do not think we often see it in June. As you said, unusual. There’s one behind Beryl too but I haven’t looked at the track(s) either.

    2. Yes. I said that, to clarify.
      🙂
      I’m not downplaying anything. I just add additional facts. Always do. It’s my duty as a scientist.

  42. Already two severe thunderstorm warnings in CT at the current time. I just heard a rumble of thunder.

  43. The area where I am which is not warned has looked to gain a bit of strength in the past few minutes.

  44. Thanks TK.

    Sultry with partial sun here on the softball fields in Meriden CT. Starting to cloud up more though now as storms approach from the NW. Multiple warnings issued to the NW and I’m sure we are going to be next. Not sure how/if they are going to get the rest of the games in today.

  47. Latest NHC advisory has Beryl weaker but still maintaining 100mph sustained winds upon landfall in the Yucatán Friday. There are three ports we are scheduled to stop at in that area next week. I think we will be really lucky if none of them are impacted in some way. Models have been in very good agreement on track with this system.

    1. You haven’t had good luck with some of these planned trips.
      Here’s hoping ALL IS WELL for you!!

  49. Dew points are OUTRAGEOUS!!!!!@()@*#!@(#*!)(@*#()!*@#)(*!)@(#*!)(@*#)(!*@#)(*!)(@#*)(!@*#)(!*@#)(*!@)(#*!()@*#()!@*#)(*!@)(#*!()@#*)(!@*#)(*!@()#*!()@*#()!*@#()*!)@(#*()!@*#()!*@#)(*!(!@#*(!@*#(!*@()#*!(@*#()!*@#()*!()@#*()!@*#()!()#@*()!@#(#*(

      1. In AC, so OK so far. A one day stint of this, she can survive with the ACS. 3 or 4 days is torture!

        Many thanks

  52. Flash Flooding Warning where I am. I am not surprised with the way the rain has been coming down in the past hour. Some rumbles of thunder a little bit with the wind but nothing like Wednesday night so far.

        1. Lol – I don’t know much about riding so I read “cooking” and assumed it was a way of saying she crushed it!

  53. I wonder if we will luck out with these storms. They have been rain producers, but from I can see, Not all that severe, even though some have been warned. AND the worse of it appears to be remaining in CT. We shall see over the next few hours.
    Fingers Crossed.

  54. New cell seems to be popping right over Sutton. How bad will it get. AND that is one of those discrete calls TK was mentioning, so, we best watch this one.

    1. Rain was intense. We were right under it. Not much thunder and lightning. Home now and no sign of rain here

  56. Thanks TK! – quite an interesting day in Connecticut – may be a gray Sunday but weather will keep us entertained. Good stuff about Beryl.

  57. Areas near Willmantic CT tennis ball size hail POSSIBLE as I am reading the severe thunderstorm warning along with 60-70 mph wind gusts

  59. Area #1 is a tiny bit ahead of short range guidance projection, time-wise. Always a thing with convection and modeling. It’s a simulation. You HAVE to watch satellite, radar, real time obs.

    1. I wonder IF the 2nd line of convection will actually be worse in this area, than the 1st one. Wouldn’t take much, that’s for sure.

      In the middle of it here and I can tell you it is pathetically weak. We heard some thunder once. Barely raining. WIMPORAMA!!!

      1. The first line is certainly no wimp where it’s actually hitting. You’re just getting some anvil precipitation to its north. Someone was going to end up with that. We have the same here.

        Second line may initially be nasty where it forms, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that one becomes outflow-dominated rather quickly.

        What may then happen is some follow-up storms get areas south of I-90 early tonight with some energy moving through and the frontal boundary in the area.

        1. So stuck in the middle again. Figures. 🙂
          Oh I know, to the South there were some good storms.
          Practically Nothing here.

      2. The second area was worse south of here Wednesday than the first which trained through here. Or is that not the same thing

  60. OK, so South of the MA/CT/RI border is where the action was/is.
    Up this way a total WIMPORAMA!!

    Pretty juicy system down by Coventry, RI now.

    1. Son In Lincoln RI said was very dark and crumbly but I think it’s even going south of him. Thank goodness. His neighbor and I’m sure others still have gaping holes in their homes from the tornado

    1. Definitely worse down that way, but I assure you, NOT up here. 🙂
      I was hoping for some action, but I SHOULD be happy that not much is happening.

  65. It looks as if the most intense weather will go just to our south: Dighton. Swansea., Somerset, Fall River. We’ll see.

  70. I’ve had a feeling most of the day that the second line is going to generally underperform and I still have that feeling.

    It won’t be long before we know.

    There’s a little disturbance swinging through New York that could trigger something south of interstate 90 later this evening…

  73. Beryl’s good news beyond initial impact in SE Carib … mainly over water for its most powerful hours before it starts a weakening trend, probably more quickly than guidance (and NHC) indicate.

    1. Hoping you are correct on that weakening trend and that any impact on the Yucatan is minimal. We have things planned in each of our three stops there next week.

  74. Got crushed pretty good earlier in Meriden. The rest of the softball games for the day were cancelled. As we were leaving there were cells both north and south of me warned for golf ball size hail. Driving north on 91, had some very heavy rain and a few very close lightning strikes which was a bit unnerving, but fortunately avoided the hail.

    Back home in Coventry, we received 1.38″ of rain from the storm, most of it falling in one hour. Now up to 4.59″ of rain for June and 33.51″ for the first half of 2024.

  75. Saw your comment above,,TK about second performance today. I came here to ask if it fizzled. ??????

    1. Radar looks pretty paltry to the west aside from a few isolated cells. I think that first line really took a lot of the juice out of the atmosphere.

    2. For the most part, yes. The batch coming across the MA/VT/NH border ran into worked-over air that had no solar boost for hours and that did that one in. Now we have the actual frontal boundary that is shown by some showers/storms in south central NH and western MA with a break in between, but these are fairly thin and not that strong. It’s still going to take all night for that boundary to make its way through, so I can’t really rule out something developing ahead of, on, or slightly behind the boundary as it moves along. As previously mentioned, there’s a little disturbance coming along for southern areas that may aid in some additional shower and thunderstorms development later, but I think anything “bigger” would be more the exception than the rule.

  77. I think ENSO is completely neutral right now. If so, how long is this expected to last.?

    1. Probably longer than expected. La Nina may be a fail – at least for the next few months, and that may do in the gloom and doom tropical season forecasts somewhat. Even with Beryl being a remarkable early season storm, that doesn’t mean a thing about July, August, September, and beyond. It’s just one system taking advantage of a very narrow strip of ideal conditions. It’s like winning the lottery, weather-style. That thing tracks 200 miles north of where it is now and it’s a nothingburger.

      Yes, we have very warm water, but you need more than warm water for a hurricane. You need favorable atmospheric conditions. Beryl has that right now – ideal conditions. It got very lucky, basically.

  78. ThanksTK.

    Jimmy B, I saw your post from this afternoon, and siri kept us from being in it.
    We started around noon from NJ (which was 79/75 at 9am) and the phone directed us to go all the way east on 287 and up 95 and 395 to avoid that first dose of storms affecting 84 and the Merritt. Then the phone changed its mind and said to cross over to the Parkway in Milford (the temp went down from 86 to 70 in the three-mile transition!) to avoid what you saw on radar.
    We had to drive through rain to get west/north of the line, but it wasn’t terrible, just annoying. Glad to be home.

    1. My son left NJ at 1:30 and with his planning and my guidance he has avoided the worst weather. He did get to watch one good t-storm during one of his breaks in northern NJ, just west of NYC.

    3. Glad you made it home safely Jean – that was an impressive line of storms. That’s a challenging drive on a sunny day!

      1. I agree about the ride. Mac grew up driving in the challenges of Rome and yet detested NJ to home on our return trip from Charleston

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