Monday July 1 2024 Forecast (8:28AM)

72 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

July starts off with a comfortable, slightly cooler than normal day, but it won’t be a “fair” day in its entirety, for we have an upper level low pressure area crossing the region with a cold pool of air aloft. As I write this update at 8:00 a.m. I already see diurnal cloud development outside my window here in Boston’s northwest suburbs. They are rather high-based, but regardless will continue to build with the sun’s help, and we will see isolated to scattered showers and potential thunderstorms by midday which will be around until about sunset before completely dissipating. While many areas will be missed by any rainfall, areas that do see a shower or storm can see briefly heavy rainfall. The later in the day we get (once the sun drops below 45 degrees elevation angle), the opportunity for seeing a rainbow will increase if you are in the right place between the sun and a shower. So rainbow seekers, take note! We clear out tonight as the upper low moves out and a clear sky and fairly light wind will make for a pretty cool early July night. High pressure builds in with great weather Tuesday, light wind, light sea breezes at the coast, mild to warm air after the chilly start, and low humidity. High pressure slips offshore Wednesday, another nice day with manageable humidity, but up a few notches from Tuesday with a southerly air flow developing. A weak cold front will cross the region in the early hours of Thursday with some clouds and no more than a brief light shower, but the balance of the Independence Day holiday will feature a sun/cloud mix, warm air, and moderate humidity as what’s left of the frontal boundary dissipates. If there are any other showers that day it would be a couple that generate along the dissipating boundary and/or a sea breeze boundary near the South Coast. By Friday, a trough moves into the Great Lakes while a fairly flat high pressure ridge sits to our south. We’ll see some episodes of cloudiness that day and perhaps a few showers around, though wet weather looks like the major exception rather than the rule. We will be on the warm side and a bit humid to end the week as well.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms midday on. Highs 73-80. Dew point around 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Ground fog patches forming. Lows 55-62. Dew point under 60. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A pop up shower possible near the South Coast. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day shower possible. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

The extended holiday weekend through July 7 features warm and humid weather with a daily chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but mostly rain-free weather. High pressure brings fair weather early to middle portions of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

West to northwest flow at upper levels. A few disturbances pass by with shower / t-storm chances, but otherwise mostly dry weather, with some variation in temperature, averaging near to a little above normal for the period.

72 thoughts on “Monday July 1 2024 Forecast (8:28AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    Yesterday we saw very little rain here.

    Temperature made it to 88 with dew point as high as 76!
    Overnight low: 69

    Ocean temp: 62.6 (Boston Buoy)
    Weird, Ocean temp is “about” the same as it was the beginning
    of June.

    1. Currents. 🙂

      Also, there’s a kind of misconception about ocean temps. This is never mentioned by media, but is mentioned by scientists often.

      When talking about anomalies and temperatures that are typical for such and such month, the variation is far less during the course of the year the closer you get to the equator than it is the further away from it you are, so this has to be taken into account when discussing the anomaly portion. It isn’t, so saying “we have July temperatures in May” for example has a huge impact on the sound, when in fact the anomaly is rather small. If we had July water temperatures in May in the northern waters, the anomaly would be much bigger.

      These are the types of things that science knows but media never mentions. Instead of putting things in relative, real terms, they inflate everything to sound dramatic. I hate it.

      1. yup, understood. I know those ocean currents has much to do with the temperatures.

        Many thanks

  4. OTDIWH from WGC

    July 1 1988. Mount Washington NH. 5 inches of snow on the ground at the observatory (5.1 inches fell on June 30). By the end of the day, 3 inches remained on the ground after a low of 29 and a high of 35. The cause: An anomalous upper low passing through New England.

    Note: This upper low resulted in a very cool day down here in SNE with instability showers and thunderstorms popping up, and while the cloud tops were not that high, many produced hail because of the anomalously low freezing level.

    1. Let’s keep that kind of set up away, although dry Canadian air is welcome, just don’t over do it. 🙂

    2. I remember that but only because it gave my dad a chance to reminisce about the years he’d ski Tuckerman and the Head Wall on Memorial Day.

      1. It might be something, or maybe just a normal fluctuation in a strong hurricane.

        Per the recon plane, Beryl’s pressure dropped from 960 to 956 mb.

        The outflow in all 4 quadrants looks textbook this morning and the eye seems, after briefly looking ‘less good’, to have improved again.

  9. June 2024 climate data from Norton NWS climate page

    Logan: temp: +2.9F
    Worcester: +4.0F
    Providence: +2.4F
    Hartford: +5.2F

    1. Put me down for these results or even higher in June.

      I believe we’ll get many anomolous overnight low temp anomalies due to episodes of oppressive humidity.

      The day time highs, I believe will avg above average in July but the night time lows will be well, well, well above average and that will create similar if not higher anomolies than listed above for June.

        1. Aside for today, the rest of this week looks warmer than average. Not super hot by any means, but certainly above average.

  12. Warmest June on record for BDL. 8 days of temperatures 90 or higher along with a five day heat wave.

    1. Thank you ,JJ. We just keep on keeping on where heat is concerned. I think Boston tied for 10. The 10 maybe soon to be 11 warmest years in record globally have beem from 2014-2023 maybe 4. This data is from records beginning in 1850

  13. It’s Canada Day, and they wanted to include us by sending a nice air mass down here. 🙂

    2. Thanks TK – I feel over the last few weeks it has been more windy than is typically the case this time of year. Is this due to the strength of high over central US or the strength of storms passing by?

  16. So, looking ahead in July in the tropics, I kind of think things may quiet again for a while, relatively speaking.

    My takeaway from June is that the atmosphere was very conducive in the open Atlantic from 10-15N Latitude and at 20-25N Latitude in the western Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche.

    So, for July, I guess I’m interested to watch the open Atlantic at 15-25N Latitude and see if the great atmospheric conditions move northward.

    Also curious to watch in July if a washed out front evolves into something, either in the Gulf of Mexico or off the immediate southeast US coast.

    1. Well, wait, 121 mph looking at the actual obs, but I do see 161 mph from the summary below the ob, but not on the details. So, 121 mph, I guess. Not good, either way.

  19. Thanks, TK.

    It was cool enough today so I could run outdoors. Yeah! But during about half of the hour long run it rained, sometimes moderately, too. It’s still raining now. Thunder in the distance.

    July begins as so many months have for the past year or so. Even when it’s not raining as much and precipitation chances are limited rain somehow finds its way into our area.

  20. So where is the dry air. DP 62 here!
    GEEZ !@#()!@*(#*!@()*#()!@*#()!*@#()*!@()#*!()@
    I lift a finger around here and sweat bullets!!!

    61 Logan
    64 Norwood
    63 Beverly

    !_@)*(#)!*@(_#*!@(#*(!@*#()!*@#()*!@)(#*)(!@*#()!*@#)(*!)@(#*()!@*#()!*@#)(*!@()#*()!@*#()!*@#(*!@()#*()!@*#()!*@#(*!@()#*!()*@#()!*@#)(*!)@(#*()!@*#()!*@#)(*!)(@#*()!*@#()*!@)(#*!()@*#()!*@#()*!()@#*()!@*#(!*@#()*!()@#*

    1. Sorry JpDave.

      Though I think this upper feature that is passing thru today might help bring drier air starting this evening.

  21. In my opinion, the next recon flight, unless the NHC decides to do it themselves, will find/classify Beryl as a cat 5. The satellite presentation looks even better !!!!!!!! the last 2 hrs.

    Perfect central dense overcast, symmetric eye.

    Perhaps sub 935 mb ???

  22. Beryl could though, as it continues westward, come into a more hostile environment and if it does, it can weaken or weaken quickly.

    But right now, amazing !!

    And I’m seeing stuff on the internet that there is a ton of lightning the last couple hours in the eyewall.

    Just like the hurricane that hit fort Myers and intensified right to landfall. The name escapes me and it was very recent 🙂

  28. I just heard a “back to school” ad on the radio. I nearly choked on my dinner. This should be prohibited. Executive order from the President of the United States: “No Back to School Advertisements until August 1.”

    I don’t think as a kid I would have survived the anxiety that hearing such ads would have produced when aired within a week of my being let out for summer vacation. Back when I was a kid and such ads began in late July at the earliest it was bad enough. I started becoming anxious by, say, July 28th. But at least I had 5 weeks of feeling liberated from school, which I hated with a passion.

    1. I suspect it is because A lot of southern states go back in August and many folks from the warmer states head north for the summer.

      Maybe?

  29. We just got back from a walk around the neighborhood. It is wonderful out. Temp 72 and DP 57.

  30. Vicki, you’re right about the states where kids go back to school in early August. But this was a local ad.

    It’s a phenomenon that I’d like to call the HSN effect. HSN was one of the first to start promoting Christmas shopping in October. They now have a Christmas tree in the studio the first or second week of October, which is a bit much. They also start promoting fall items in July and spring items in the dead of winter. It’s consumerism on steroids.

    1. I agree. But a lot if people from down south head up this way in summer.

      As I think everyone knows, I don’t mind early advertising. Especially Christmas. I’m watching Christmas in July on hallmark. I figure we can just look away.

      My Christmas decorations don’t start in October but the do start November 2 😀

  31. U.S. men’s soccer continues its dreadful regression. Awful coach. Lack of talent on the team is conspicuous. The team looks discombobulated.

    Frankly, under the German coach Jurgen Klinsmann’s direction the team at least was getting better. Now it’s kind of a train wreck. Very hard to watch as it’s mostly bad soccer.

  32. Re: Dew points yesterday / last night. They did what was expected per my discussion / forecast.

    Yesterday: “Around 60”.
    Last night: “Under 60.”

    No surprises there.

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