Tuesday July 2 2024 Forecast (7:02AM)

38 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

As expected, dew points fell to the 50s last night as a Canadian airmass moved in behind a disturbance that caused a few showers and storms yesterday. This comfortable air will be with us today into tomorrow, though tomorrow you’ll notice a slight up-tick in the humidity toward day’s end. This takes places as high pressure dominates the weather, moving into the region from the northwest today then sliding southeast offshore Wednesday, another fair weather day. You will notice more high level cloudiness Wednesday as it warms aloft. A weak cold front will move through the region Thursday morning and may be responsible for a few showers in the region (nothing like last year’s July 4th’s period of rain). As the front settles off to the south and a South Coast sea breeze boundary forms, a few more showers can be triggered near the South Coast in the afternoon with higher humidity levels, but the balance of the region should be rain-free for afternoon gatherings and nighttime fireworks displays. Even areas that see pop-up showers should lose them in the evening with the only risk of interruption to fireworks being patchy fog in some South Coast areas. Friday looks a little nicer to me today than it did yesterday with weak high pressure to the north in control. Saturday, a warm front scoots through with some clouds and perhaps a shower, otherwise a return to very warm and humid weather is expected.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A pop up shower possible near the South Coast. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 60+ Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. A shower possible, mainly morning to midday. Highs 80-87. Dew point climbs toward 70. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

A cold front slides through early July 7 with maybe a shower or thunderstorm, otherwise lingering clouds but still humid and warm that day to finish the weekend. Pattern into next week features high pressure and fair weather at first but shower / storm chances go up toward midweek between offshore high pressure and a Midwest / Great Lakes trough.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Westerly flow aloft – high pressure off US East Coast, trough Great Lakes and Midwest. Surface front west of region, generally warm, humid pattern here with a few shower / thunderstorm opportunities.

38 thoughts on “Tuesday July 2 2024 Forecast (7:02AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    The one positive of Beryl is, it has helped released a good amount of heat from the ocean, as well as all the heat and humidity above the ocean surface that it has ingested.

    I assume we’ll see additional massive heat engines, like Beryl, in August and September as well, should excellent atmospheric conditions overlay the above avg SST’s that are out there.

  6. 5AM AST discussion had Beryl as CAT 5 with top sustained winds
    of 165 mph!!!

    Pretty impressive, especially for this time of year!!!!

  7. Thank you TK.

    Also thank you for your answer re my green line. Outflow boundary. My oldest and her daughter were out for a walk with their new pup. She said the wind came out of nowhere and the gusts were really cold, especially compared to the thick humid air. I sent her the video I posted here last night. Weather sure is fascinating

  11. As of 11 AST , Beryl has begun the weakening process, albeit
    EVER SO SLIGHTLY at the moment.

    Down a whopping 5mph to 160 mph max sustained winds.

    This process should continue now, unless this was part of the eye wall reforming????

  13. Beryl is a fascinating system to follow. Thank you to everyone posting links and updates. I wouldn’t know half….or maybe any…of this except for this awesome blog
    .

    1. Thanks JpDave !

      Seems to be experiencing some shear, but not at the top.

      The cirrus ventilation looks outstanding in all quadrants.

      Perhaps in mid levels ….. 15-35 thousand feet ??

  15. Beautiful out !

    We are working our way back southbound, stopping in Biddeford again for lunch.

    I see a TV for the 1st time in 9 days !!!!!!! 🙂

    2. ❤️

      I loved that about the area. We’d stay up all night playing pitch and drinking birch beer.

      Safe travels home !

  17. Eric and Jim

    Very bad look for Jamaica tomorrow as #Beryl approaches. Here’s the latest track from @NHC_Atlantic. Expecting the worst hurricane on the island since at least Dean in 2007. #wbz
    https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1808240921437237427?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

    After #Beryl impacts the Yucatan Thursday night and Friday, hopefully as a weaker hurricane, more and more guidance starts to turn it north once it reemerges over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday. Even though some guidance has Beryl a TS at this point, some keeps it as a hurricane so the western gulf needs to be on alert potentially for the later part of the holiday weekend and early next week.

    Much of the future fluctuation and strength will depend on shear and land interaction, but we still have lots of warm ocean out there to keep it going or strengthen it up at times. Stay tuned!

    https://x.com/jimcantore/status/1808068454806602085?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

  18. Thanks, TK.

    Turkey – Austria was a treat. Game was played in the rain during the second half – there’s been quite a bit of rain throughout the tournament. It was soccer at its finest.

  19. Dvorak which is the best way to gauge indicates Beryl is not 155. It’s weaker, and likely weakening steadily from here on. Better news for Jamaica – not great – but better than it might have been. May still be comparable to Dean (2007). Need more than just warm ocean to keep it going and there are some hostile conditions ahead.

    Recon should be in for a bit of a surprise next check. We’ve seen the worst.

  20. There’s a rumor going around the internet / social media that Beryl is going to “reach category 6 and make history”. There is no category 6 on the scale. Clowns.

  21. On a lighter, happier note, what a great beach day today was. I was at Hampton for a few hours. It was very comfortable, a light sea breeze, mild to warm air, low humidity. Water was chilly, as it still is in early July, but not “bad”.

    They have fixed the jetty which had been damaged over time, and they did a great job! Next time I’ll be walking it. Didn’t have a chance to do that today. But I did have a fabulous breakfast at the Sea Ketch restaurant. Yummmmmmm!

    Off to my next pyro event. Fireworks in Tewksbury MA. I had a choice between there, Patriot Place, and Boston Harbor.

    I’ll be in Gloucester tomorrow and Charles River Boston on July 4, so I opted for a suburban shoot tonight. 🙂

    2. I been told by certain tropical weather forecasters that Dvorak is good in some cases but not in others.

  23. This is a side of tropical weather that you will not hear from any media source, because it’s not “exciting” enough, but John Hope from TWC would have been very excited about this tidbit of info.

    We have seen the record broken for the latest date without a named storm in the Eastern North Pacific, and the record will continue to be set until we get a storm. There is finally a disturbance south of Mexico that has a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours, but until then we add to this unprecedented happening.

    Beryl has plenty of attention, as it should, but the rest of the tropical world is asleep zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. There are NO suspect areas anywhere in the central and western North Pacific, almost unheard of at this time of year, and also the northern Indian Ocean, also almost unheard of. But in the name of science while the mainstream media turns a blind eye to these facts, I bring them to you on WHW. 🙂

  24. Jean, I played violin for many years. Not very well, but I was a second violinist in ensembles and youth symphony orchestras in the 1980s and 90s in the Netherlands. I haven’t played in a long time. Could I take it up again? Yes. Would it require a lot of work? Yes.

    1. There are community orchestras all around; if you think you would find that fun, it might be well worth the work (some of which you would do as you go along). There’s nothing quite like making music in a group!

    1. I hope it weakens quite a bit. We have been there many times over the years with our most recent time last year to mostly the same resort in Montego Bay. We are keeping all the friends we have made there over the years in our prayers tonight.

  26. Though Beryl was so far south, it created windy conditions over the NE Caribbean. We had a massive swell, waves were crashing halfway up the cliff side among Blackpoint road and Fortuna today. Very impressive. Last night had a lightning show in the distance over water. PR today got hit by one of the outer bands. Hispaniola is getting hit now. Beryl is weakening lets hope that shear keeps weakening it and make it happen quickly. Hurricane models right now start to rapidly decrease its intensity but what ever the case those islands are getting floods. Luckily after Beryl the Atlantic looks to be unfavorable for the next handful of weeks. CCKW/200V but also Saharan dust and wind shear making it unfavorable. Thank you everyone for the birthday wishes. 🙂

  27. Beryl still with a very strong north side.

    Its southern side has weaker winds, but that does Jamaica no good.

    Southern third to half, at least, of Jamaica is going to take a fairly hard hit, I’m afraid.

    That eyewall keeps wrapping massive convection around its north side and staying somewhat centered in it, despite decent shear.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02L&product=ir

    Satellite loop credit to tropical tidbits.

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