Wednesday July 3 2024 Forecast (8:13AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

With Independence Day on a Thursday this year, there isn’t really a clear cut “4th of July Weekend” as we like to call it, but using the day-rounding process, with the holiday just 2 days away from the standard weekend, it’s basically the weekend for all intents and purposes for the next 5 days – this forecast period – if you include today as a “get-away day”. So here we are in a stretch of weather-important days for plans that include travel, pools, beaches, cookouts and other gatherings, and of course many fireworks displays over a stretch of nights. And the weather doesn’t look all that bad for most of the time, to be honest. We have a few showers and thunderstorms to dodge, no doubt, as would often be the case in many 5-day stretches in early summertime, but we’ve certainly had more unfriendly patterns than the one that will be ours for this time period.

Today, high pressure governs with fairly comfortable humidity but a little warmer than yesterday. You’ll also notice some cloud patches fanning across the sky from northwest to southeast as the air warms up aloft too. A “quiet” warm front will slide through during today and this evening, made evident only by the cloud patches but no precipitation, so it’s going to be a really nice day! Weak low pressure will travel north of our region tonight and Thursday, and a weak cold front trailing it will move into the region until it gets to about the South Coast where it essentially becomes indiscernible. Nevertheless, this boundary can help create a few passing showers mainly during the morning hours north of I-90, and along with a sea breeze boundary on Thursday can initiate a few more showers mainly south of I-90 Thursday afternoon, which I do expect to fade away for evening fireworks. While humidity levels will be noticeably up for Independence Day, it won’t be oppressive, and there should be a ventilating breeze if you’re outside, with cooler air to be found at the shoreline compared to inland locations. If there are any issues with fireworks, as previously mentioned, there could be a few fog patches near the South Coast during the evening on Thursday. Hopefully they don’t form extensively enough to hinder fireworks views. Looking beyond the holiday to the rest of the weekend, the pattern is a little more unsettled, but not bad. Friday’s weather will feature more cloudiness especially across southern portions of the region with the hold frontal boundary still hanging around there, but there should be partial sun too – more to the north – and only a limited chance of a passing shower at some point, nothing that I see as causation for cancelling any outdoor plans. With the larger scale pattern starting to feature a trough in the Midwest and Great Lakes, another low pressure area is expected to travel to our north over the weekend, dragging another warm front / cold front combo through our area. The warm front should trigger showers late Friday night into Saturday morning under an abundance of clouds, but we likely break out into some sun on Saturday with a spike of more oppressive humidity, though not especially hot – just quite warm. We’ll have to watch for another shower or thunderstorm sometime later Saturday to the early hours of Sunday, depending on the timing of a trailing cold front. Indications are this point are for limited activity with this front, despite the high humidity, but with these conditions you can’t really rule out at least some scattered downpours at some point, so keep this in mind during that Saturday PM to Sunday AM time period and I’ll fine-tune that part of the forecast asap. Cloudiness may linger around on Sunday even after the front goes by as there is no real strong push of dry Canadian air to be found this time… However I would expect the muggy air of Saturday to be replaced by at least less humid air for Sunday. Again, this will be something to refine in coming updates.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A couple passing showers possible north of I-90 morning. A pop up shower possible south of I-90 afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog South Coast region. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A possible late-day shower in a few locations. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 60+ Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Showers possible, mainly morning to midday. Chance of a late-day thunderstorm favoring areas to the weest. Highs 80-87. Dew point climbs toward 70. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point falls toward 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: More clouds than sun. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

Pattern next week puts high pressure in the Midwest and adjacent Canada, and another high off the Atlantic Coast, with our region in between, where a boundary will reside. This increases the chance for high humidity and episodic showers and thunderstorms. But it’s important to note, this is not likely a “rainy week” but rather a humid, hit and miss shower/storm pattern. Much detail to be worked out.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

Pattern for mid month strongest indications are for westerly air flow aloft, high pressure still off the East Coast but flatter / weaker, and a trough more persistent Midwest / Great Lakes. For our area that’s a warm pattern, not persistently hot though, more often humid than dry, and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities but more fair weather than unsettled weather.

62 thoughts on “Wednesday July 3 2024 Forecast (8:13AM)”

    3. Wow. Exceptional article, Joshua. And something I would not have known had you not written your article. May I share?

  8. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Jamaica_relief_location_map.jpg

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02L&product=vis

    I think, even without a clear eye, that northern eyewall with the tallest bubbly clouds is evident.

    Looks like beryl’s center is moving slightly north of due west.

    It’s going to be close for Kingston if they get that northern eye wall.

    I’m sure there’s torrential rain and a good tropical storm event north of that wall, but in that wall is THE worst part of the hurricane.

    Now, Jamaica seems to stick a little further south as one heads west on the island so, I think more area towards the west side of the island may get the northern eye all, but I don’t know how populated it is.

    Credit to tropical tidbits for satellite loop

    1. https://images.search.yahoo.com/images/view;_ylt=AwrFEdpGXoVmUpMESQqInIlQ;_ylu=c2VjA3NyBHNsawNpbWcEb2lkAzhmZWE1YWQzN2U0NTVkNGFjMTdlZTUzZGMzZDFkNWMwBGdwb3MDMwRpdANiaW5n?back=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.search.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%2Fimages%3Fp%3Dkingston%2Bjamaica%2Blocation%26ei%3DUTF-8%26fr%3Diphone%26fr2%3Dp%253As%252Cv%253Ai%252Cm%253Asb-top%26_tsrc%3Dapple%26tab%3Dorganic%26ri%3D3&w=728&h=425&imgurl=www.worldatlas.com%2Fimg%2Flocator%2Fcity%2F067%2F12267-kingston-locator-map.jpg&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.worldatlas.com%2Fna%2Fjm%2F01%2Fwhere-is-kingston.html&size=27.5KB&p=kingston+jamaica+location&oid=8fea5ad37e455d4ac17ee53dc3d1d5c0&fr2=p%3As%2Cv%3Ai%2Cm%3Asb-top&fr=iphone&tt=Where+is+Kingston%2C+Jamaica%3F+%2F+Kingston%2C&b=0&ni=64&no=3&ts=&tab=organic&sigr=jmMmk3G9Pv51&sigb=vmIrk7Mi.FxX&sigi=ycJkSEgzCihN&sigt=X_mwsdpQPUEV&.crumb=oy8Z3SMbx9B&fr=iphone&fr2=p%3As%2Cv%3Ai%2Cm%3Asb-top&_tsrc=apple

      1. That southern most part of the island that is southwest of Kingston, I think they are going to get that northern eye wall.

  10. Just have to watch for any brief northwest wobble, which is unforecastable, in the next 4-10 hrs

  11. But, as JpDave’s radar post shows above, the torrential rain is extending further north than the northern eyewall, so they won’t miss that.

  13. Great info Tom. Thanks

    I’ve been too busy to monitor much.

    I am expected to complete 8 hours of work in 4 hours!!!!

    🙂 🙂 🙂

  15. RadarScope

    Does anyone have RadarScope installed on their desktop?
    Curious to know.
    I am having great difficulty with it. It worked for one day
    and now it does not.

    Their customer service SUCKS!!! MicroSoft customer service
    SUCKS!!!!

    It will load up. I can see the maps and the list of radars and display options but absolutely ZERO radar data is coming across my screen. Something is wacky and so far I am getting NO WHERE with support.

    I love this app. Is it asking too much to have it work>>>?>>>>>>>

    I guess it is

    1. Sorry I only have on my iPhone and iPad. But I sure wish you luck. It really is a great app.

        1. That’s the type of thing that frustrates me to no end so I understand. Have you tried myRadarPro. I have it. If it needs a $$ subscription, I’m happy to get my user name and pw to you. I prefer radar scope but radar pro works if you know what you are Doing. Which you do and I mostly don’t.

  16. Happy birthday, Ace! Hope the temps have cooled some in Italy but know you are having an amazing vacation!

    1. Thanks Vicki! We just made it back to Sulmona after 3 incredible days at the beach. Couldn’t imagine a better way to spend a birthday. Temps have cooled considerably which is the icing on the cake. Even the scorpion in our room couldn’t ruin a perfect day. Hope everyone has a great 4th!

  18. Vicki, you may indeed share my article.

    I hope it offered a balanced perspective. I’m not one for hyperbole on any topic, including climate change.

    By the way, what I highlight in the article, the Biden Administration’s proactive stance on establishing heat-related protections for certain workers is emblematic of the Administration’s exceptionally active executive and legislative work since 2021. Regardless of one’s opinion of whether Biden should step aside (I think he should) or even one’s views on the Administration’s political perspective (I’m sure many differ because they’re more conservative and I respect their opinion) it’s been the busiest in my lifetime since LBJ and Nixon. No Republican or Democratic Administration has done more (since LBJ and Nixon) in such a short amount of time, often without fanfare or showmanship (not Biden’s thing).

    1. Thank you. I also thought he should step aside. If you don’t follow heather cox Richardson who is an exceptional historian, she explains why he should not. Doesn’t mean she supports anything but the reasons she lists make a ton of sense. She’s on FB. Please let me know if you cannot find her.

  20. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02L&product=ir

    Credit to tropical tidbits for loop.

    I’d say the center is about due south of Kingston.

    Kingston is having tropical storm force winds, I really think they may be far enough north to escape the worst winds.

    This beryl is tenacious.

    Now it’s firing new convection on the east and southeast side of the center.

    It may not reintensify it, but it will slow down any weakening if major convection is wrapping around the center.

  21. I don’t, until it happens, believe these continued weakening predictions as it approaches the Yucatan

    The last few hours yet another convective burst around the center that has made the eye look the best it has all day.

    1. It will weaken. Sustained down to around 100 or even less by Yucatan landfall.

  24. Big cities of Jamaica are missing the worst. That’s good news in a rough situation.

  25. Vicki, thanks for reminding me of Heather Cox Richardson. She’s excellent. She may convince me to change my mind.

    1. It may have been in her live talk yesterday that she outlined the reasons. But starting with June 28, her posts are chilling

  26. Reporting in from Olive Branch, Mississippi.

    Current temperature 99…feels like 107.

    It’s like an every day occurance here. Don’t know how they do it!

      1. Having the fun…..trying on the cool.
        And the propane tank just went empty so off we go to get a full on.
        Dinner will have to wait, sadly.

  27. Wishing everyone a fantastic Fourth of July with family and friends!!! Here’s hoping most are on vacation or, at least, have a long weekend!

    Enjoy!

    Happy “Sum-mah!” 🙂

    2. I’m half way thru a 9-day weekend. I don’t work a full week more than 1 time until mid August. 🙂 Including a 2-week off stretch upcoming.

  32. Thank you TK!

    Still waiting to hear from my husband’s family in Jamaica. They are a little west of Kingston in Spanish Town and Old Harbour and I am sure have no power or internet.

    Hope everyone has a great 4th.

    1. Sue, prayers for your husband’s family. If you have time, can you please keep us updated.

  33. Jamaica spared a full direct impact, limited to the far south. Could have ended up a lot worse and thankfully it will not be. Still hard hit southern areas.

    Steady weakening underway (more quickly than NHC indicating), should be a CAT 1 before Yucatan landfall, may return to low end CAT 1 before upper Mexico landfall down the road.

    The worst of Beryl has already taken place.

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