Thursday July 4 2024 Forecast (8:33AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Happy Independence Day! I’ve been eyeing a frontal boundary set to pass through the region today, weakening / washing out as it does so, but it holds just enough impact to produce a few showers this morning, mainly north of I-90, and, with the help of a South Coast sea breeze boundary, potentially initiate a few more this afternoon, mainly south of I-90. A little disturbance coming along tonight can bring a very late evening or overnight shower or thunderstorm to some areas, but that activity will be fairly low coverage. Other than those few showers and maybe a spot storm around today, and some fog patches which may form this evening near the South Coast, I don’t see much in the way of weather-related interruption for daytime 4th of July activities and evening fireworks displays. As always, keep an eye on the sky, and the radar if you can, and stay safe. As we move through the extended holiday weekend, and you can include Monday in this if you are lucky enough to have done so, we’ll see some unsettled weather around for a while Friday and Saturday, and more settled weather Sunday and Monday. The frontal boundary that comes by today, even though it’s not showing much contrast from one side to another, sits around Friday just to the south when a few showers can form over it with the help of an approaching disturbance from the west. As a trough moves into the Great Lakes this weekend, a stronger push of moisture will occur into the Northeast Saturday, upping the potential for a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms at any point during that day. While I wouldn’t cancel plans, keep in mind that this is the day that has the highest chance of outdoor plans being interrupted by weather. The passage of a warm front early in the day will open the door to oppressive humidity, but this should drop off again during Sunday as a cold front settles through. Clouds may hang on for a while on Sunday before sun reappears, and it will be quite warm even behind the front, including Monday, which will feature fair weather.

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy morning with passing showers possible. Partly sunny afternoon with an additional shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly south of I-90. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod / South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Dew point rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower is possible, especially late evening and overnight. Patchy fog South Coast. Lows 63-70, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Showers and thunderstorms possible at any time, but greatest chance early morning and mid afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point rises to 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lowers to lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Clouds dominate the morning, sun dominates the afternoon. Highs 83-90 except a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

The large scale weather pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast, a low pressure trough Great Lakes and Midwest, which creates a humid southwesterly air flow here, with warm weather and several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. It sounds worse than it is, as I don’t expect persistent major heat. There will also be more rain-free time than raining time. Day-to-day details have to be worked out closer to each time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

No major changes from the previous outlook. Indications of a generally westerly flow aloft with a mean trough position in the Great Lakes and Midwest and weaker high pressure off the East Coast. This is a typical summertime pattern for here, warm, a hot day or two, on the humid side, a few shower/thunderstorm chances from time to time but fair weather more often than unsettled weather.

62 thoughts on “Thursday July 4 2024 Forecast (8:33AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 84 here yesterday.
    Overnight low of 65
    currently 71

    Ocean temp: 60.4 (Boston buoy)
    FWIW, water currently cooler than it was on June 1st.

    1. Currents. 🙂 There’s often a misconception that the ocean temperature increases and decreases neatly and systematically throughout any basin, but that’s simply not the case. Yes there is a “cold point” and a “warm point” as we go through the year, but there can be some pretty significant variations based on currents, and impact from larger events like hurricanes / storms.

      Distinctive cooling trend recently.

      1. Yes, I Understand and I also have noticed big time.
        I just find it fascinating. One would think that this time of year that the water would be warmer now than on June 1st.
        Well actually it is, but by a hair.

        Just looked back to June 1st – 6th

        6/1 Ocean temp: 59.4 (Boston buoy)
        6/4 Ocean temp: 59 2 (Boston Buoy)
        6/5 Ocean temp: 60 3 (Boston buoy)
        6/6 Ocean temp: 61 7 (Boston buoy)

        Current (July 4th) 60.4

        I guess I missed by a few days. 🙂

        Many thanks

    2. Yep! It’s toasty out here! Actually today should be cooler than yesterday by about 5 degrees: “only” a high of 97 versus 102 yesterday. And I’m not in the hot area- I’m by the bay. Add another 10-15 degrees if you go inland.

  9. Driving back thru southern Maine Tuesday, I heard Mark Rosenthal and his forecast for the area. I want to say it was 102.1 when 105.3 FM, but I flip the radio from song to song that I like, so I’m not 100% sure. 🙂

  10. That’s INSANE HEAT and DANGEROUS HEAT!!!
    YIKE!!!

    I just checked Phoenix and Flagstaff
    Pheonix is expecting 115 today while Flagstaff, 2 hours away by car and at altitude of around 7,000 feet is still expecting 92!!!

    That is really HOT!!!!

  12. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=cam&band=08&length=24

    This Beryl ….. still around 970 mb ….

    There’s that upper low north of the Yucatan peninsula is creating some decent west and southwest shear and still, Beryl moves on.

    South Texas should be leary.

    The gfs has a weaker storm, but it hits the western us ridge and just struggles to move inland and drops a lot of rain in south Texas.

    The euro moves it in a little quicker after landfall, but it has a stronger system making landfall not too far south of Brownsville, TX

    1. On that loop it looks like it “may” not even hit the Yucatan????
      What would that mean in the Gulf?
      Even if it hits, looks to hit farther North in the Yucatan than
      previously projected.

    1. I’m just about there. Every year since 1990!

      No event in 2020.
      Held on the common in 2021.

    1. And then some!! One of the ALL TIME GREATS!!
      and I am NOT sucking up, just laying out the truth. 🙂

  15. I know I share this every fourth so here I am again. …

    July 4, 1826

    On the 50th anniversary of the birth of our great nation, John Adam’s last words were, “Thomas Jefferson still lives.” He did not know Jefferson had died just five hours before

    There are multiple explanations tossed around as to why two founders died within hours of each other as they listened to the 50 year celebration of our birth outside of their bedroom windows. (There were three but the third was not on the 50th anniversary.)

    Coincidence? I’d say Godincidence.

    In 1826, Daniel Webster’s Eulogy……

    “The concurrence of their death on the anniversary of Independence has naturally awakened stronger emotions,” Webster said. “It cannot but seem striking and extraordinary, that these two should live to see the fiftieth year from the date of that act, that they should complete that year, and that then, on the day which had fast linked forever their own fame with their country’s glory, the heavens should open to receive them both at once.”

    “As their lives themselves were the gifts of Providence, who is not willing to recognize in their happy termination, as well as in their long continuance, proofs that our country and its benefactors are objects of His care?”

      1. Here is what I found and confirmed what i thought:

        Color was added to enhance or highlight the highest cloud tops that are typically associated with significant large synoptic-scale weather systems and deep, moist convection or thunderstorms. This is especially critical when flying in regions where ground-based radar data is sparse or nonexistent. The new satellite layer takes this a step further by colorizing the entire satellite layer based on a discrete cloud top temperature (in degrees Celsius).

        So the black colors are higher cloud tops with presumably more convection.

  18. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th_nb&rh=2024070412&fh=114&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

    Something to watch and see if this verifies and becomes part of a dominant summer pattern.

    I don’t remember in a few summers, the western Atlantic ridge (Bermuda High) being depicted in a more average position, like above.

    The past few years it’s been well displaced to the east.

    Besides that it would supply a warm/hot and humid east coast pattern, it seemingly would prevent future systems from escaping out into the Atlantic.

    Can’t, obviously be specific on exactly where tracks could go, but I’ll be interested to see if the Bermuda high has returned to its location this year.

  19. Happy fourth! My biannual declaration that I’m paying closer attention to the blog starts today 🙂

  22. Thanks TK.

    We are leaving for Ft Lauderdale in the morning and our cruise leaves from Miami Saturday PM. I was tracking the Icon of the Seas earlier this week and it was supposed to be on an eastern Caribbean itinerary to St Thomas and St Martin however Royal Caribbean completely switched up the itinerary and sent it to Costa Maya and Cozumel in the Yucatan (where we are headed next week). Not surprising I guess as there were probably some big waves out there, even though the hurricane was well south of Virgin Islands. I know Matt mentioned the other night that he felt effects in St Thomas.

    Beryl is forecast by the NHC to make landfall just south of Cozumel around 8AM tomorrow AM as a Cat 1 or 2 and we are scheduled to be there on Wednesday. Hopefully they make out OK and the stop doesnt get cancelled. I think our port stops in Costa Maya and Roatan, Honduras (further south) on Monday and Tuesday will be fine.

  23. Royal Caribbean is the only cruise line that has its own chief meteorologist, Craig Setzer, who was previously on TV for many years in Miami. This is a an interesting article and interview with him on what goes into his job. Needless to say this is a very busy time of year for him. Royal Caribbean has many cruise ships out at sea in the Atlantic and Pacific at any one given time.

    https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2024/06/28/unforeseen-weather-events-are-top-concern-cruise-ships-according-royal-caribbeans

    https://youtu.be/jr0xQaTS1j8?si=A2UGPEjVxL8P8kpx

    1. I also found it interesting in the interview video (only a few minutes in) where he mentions the reason that he left CBS Miami after being there for so long. Something about the media that has been mentioned on this blog many times by TK and others 🙂

      2. Awesome. Thank you. Oldest and family are in Belmont on the Cambridge reservoir. We used to watch esplanade fireworks from there. It was drizzling when they arrived. No rain now

  28. Happy 4th everyone in WHW world – spent the day with my NY family in Rockaway Beach, NYC. We set our beach spot up at 615am and walked off after amazing fireworks at 10:15pm. The weather ended up being splendid until 10:30 when we got an heavy rain cell. And the ocean – after being an ice bucket two days ago- really warmed up. Looks like the cool pool of water went north JP DAVE.

  29. Yesterday’s event in Boston was one of the best I’ve been at in over 3 decades. It was well organized, with a well-behaved crowd. The weather, despite a few sprinkles, was comfortable with a nice breeze coming down the river. It peaked in the lower 80s around midday then coasted back to the upper 70s with cloud cover abundant, and was in the mid 70s at concert / fireworks time. The concert and the fireworks were excellent. Exit was a little crazy in the normal sense, but rather orderly. Patient crowd. Looking forward to next year. 🙂

    New weather post…

  30. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02L&product=wv_rgb

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=08&length=24

    Both of these loops show, in this case, this upper low to the west of Beryl has reventillated Beryl on its northern side.

    Tremendous evacuation of air in that quadrant is helping to maintain in the face of shear on its western side.

    Noticed the gfs and euro with a stronger system on their 00z runs at landfall.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024070500&fh=84&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024070500&fh=90&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

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