Friday July 5 2024 Forecast (8:40AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

We move into a little bit of an unsettled stretch now for the balance of the holiday weekend, but when people see “unsettled” and “weekend” in the same phrase, they get nervous. There’s still plenty of nice weather to be had even during this time where clouds will be dominant and shower / t-storm chances are to be monitored. A healthy batch of showers, some heavy, went through MA this morning, moving offshore as we enter mid morning. The remainder of the day will feature a lot of clouds, partial sun, and still the chance of a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm, but the vast majority of the remaining hours will be rain-free in any given location. It will be warm (not hot) and on the humid side. We will get a shot of more oppressive humidity on Saturday before a cold front slides through and knocks it back down somewhat on Sunday. Similar to yesterday’s outlook, we will have to watch for a couple to a few batches of showers and thunderstorms in the region during the span of Saturday’s calendar day, which should then largely move offshore by Sunday, though some may linger early in eastern and southern areas. Clouds may also hang tough for a while Sunday before we finally get into more sunshine as the day passes. Early next week, high pressure brings fair, warm conditions Monday. By Tuesday, high pressure offshore and high pressure in the Midwest puts a trough sandwiched between them, and the southwesterly air flow will transport moisture into our region, increasing the shower and thunderstorm chance once again.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy – breaks of sun. Early showers eastern coastal areas exit, then pop-up showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Showers and thunderstorms possible at any time, but greatest chance early morning and mid afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lowers into 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Clouds dominate the morning along with potential lingering showers eastern and/or southern areas. Sun dominates the afternoon. Highs 83-90 except a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

The large scale weather pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast, a low pressure trough Great Lakes and Midwest, which creates a humid southwesterly air flow here, with warm weather and several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Early call on when shower chances are highest: First half of July 10, much of July 11, and end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

No major changes from the previous outlook. Indications of a generally westerly flow aloft with a mean trough position in the Great Lakes and Midwest and weaker high pressure off the East Coast. This is a typical summertime pattern for here, warm, a hot day or two, on the humid side, a few shower/thunderstorm chances from time to time but fair weather more often than unsettled weather.

83 thoughts on “Friday July 5 2024 Forecast (8:40AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02L&product=wv_rgb

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=08&length=24

    Both of these loops show, in this case, this upper low to the west of Beryl has reventillated Beryl on its northern side.

    Tremendous evacuation of air in that quadrant is helping to maintain in the face of shear on its western side.

    Noticed the gfs and euro with a stronger system on their 00z runs at landfall.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024070500&fh=84&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024070500&fh=90&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

    And glad last night was awesome in Boston !

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    made 83 yesterday with dp up to 71 overnight. currently 73

    ocean temp: 62.2 (Boston buoy)

  3. Since media tends to focus on negativity, a positive piece of news about Beryl is that the most likely landfall will be in a spot that puts the strongest part of the storm in a fairly sparsely populated area, as a relatively small system, so that will minimize issues.

  4. From WGC…

    We head to Texas on this date in 1905.

    A tornado, likely F4 on initial Fujita scale, tracked 20 miles southeastward across Mantague County from near Belcherville to near St. Jo with a damage path up to 3 miles wide! Tremendous amount of farm animals lost along the path. The communities of Long Branch, Barrel Springs, and Dixie were essentially erased from existence. 18 deaths, 40 injuries.

    A tornadic event of this violence so far south at this time of year is an extreme rarity.

  6. Thanks TK. Just arrived in Fort Lauderdale. 88F with a dewpoint of 75 and heat index of 99F already here at 10am. Heat advisory in effect today for heat indices to 110F. Yes, that’s even hot for here apparently 🙂

  7. Thanks TK
    Quick peak at the latest SREF showing a low tornado risk for interior parts of CT and MA and an elevated risk parts of VT NH and ME. SPC has all of SNE in a general thunderstorm risk for tomorrow. Will see if that changes when this gets updated around 1:30 this afternoon.

  10. I thoroughly enjoyed last nights Pops on the esplanade. I’d agree with TK that it was one of the best. And he has a whole lot better perspective. The only one that stands out above it in my memory is 2002.

    I oddly was not familiar with the name Danielle (is that correct) Love or the Mavericks but enjoyed both. I sure knew her music and sang along with her. That’s my era. I always enjoy the patriotic songs. Choked up a bit more than usual at God Bless America.

    I was blessed to have my now 17 year old grandson watch with me as he has every year since maybe 3 or 4 years old. He hopes for a Taylor swift song to accompany the fireworks and didn’t get one but we have a few more to go so maybe.

      1. Btw, I have another movie for you;

        PEANUT BUTTER FALCON
        with Shia LaBeouf and Dakota Johnson.

      2. Oh no. I knew her music well. Oddly, I don’t recall the name. I knew each and e eye word of her songs.

        Da do Ron Ron

      3. And I absolutely love that Christmas song. And I clearly love her music. So odd I just don’t recall the name I never watched letterman but did watch carson sometimes. If I was up that late I was usually out and about

    1. This is 180 hrs away, let’s see if this moves forward in the coming days.

      That adds on to what is a consistently warm to occasionally hot time ahead in the coming 7 days.

          1. Sounds like temps my BIL said they were having. Perhaps I should give him a call and ask him to keep it there ????

  15. Darlene Love sounded amazing … 🙂 Every performance they had was excellent. The Mavericks were fabulous.

    Darlene’s voice brings me back to Christmas as a kid – one of the iconic sounds I remember coming from mom’s radio. 🙂

    1. Another YUCK day!!!!

      AND WHY OH WHY don’t many of the on air mets even
      MENTION the dew points????? WHY??? More corporate bullshit?????

  19. Quick question – how much rain do you expect tomorrow in the Natick area? Trying to decide if it is worth clearing a few gutter spots. Thanks.

      1. this says exactly where it is forecast to go and very close to what the euro had. North of Corpus Christi and South of the Houton area. Almost smack in the middle between them. Still it is a model run, but sonetng to watch.

  22. Thank you, TK.

    I was lucky enough to meet Darlene Love 10 years ago, who I believe did back-up vocals for the Stones and others.

  23. Does anyone bother looking at the percent chance of rain/storms on a given day? It’s really annoying seeing it fluctuate dramatically from let’s say 80% chance of storms only change to 30% and then see nothing at all. It’s a useless algorithm in my opinion. Btw I was using weather.coms daily/hourly view. They usually get the temperatures correct but that’s about it lol.

    1. I NEVER EVER go by that. I look at the synoptic set up and the radar, radar and more radar. 🙂

      But I am probably out of the norm. 🙂

      1. JPD check your comment info – your username got changed to the small letter “r” somehow and this went to moderation. I fixed it, but it may happen again if you have autofill.

    2. I do. My grandkids do. But I’ve always preferred percents so it makes sense to me to not only know where but percent

    3. If you’re going by hourly, the % chances are going to change sometimes significantly depending on what the app is “expecting” in the short term.

      1. I’m mostly use it when one of my grandkids says it is going to rain all day. They use apps 🙄 The percent imo makes a big difference then

        1. I’d like to see apps have explanations of %’s and time frames. I hope that Matt & Danielle are doing something like this and I suspect they are, because they have the same concerns I always have about these tools of weather info. 🙂

          I’ve never been against the tech – I just think it can be better set-up, better explained, and as a result better utilized. 🙂

        1. All set now!
          I’ve seen WordPress changes people’s names on its own. I wouldn’t rule that out.

  25. I have been trying to add a comment from the beach but no luck so hopefully will work now that I am on wifi at house. Storms coming over us in Rockway Beach, NY – tail end of that complex forming in western Connecticut – some great lightning

  26. Ok – now that it is working again – tropical question – when is the last time the first three named storms of the season in Atlantic basin made landfall in Mexico. I can’t remember this happening in a long time – if ever

    1. Don’t know, good question.

      But I don’t think beryl will be landfalling in Mexico with today’s trend.

    2. Looking again at that water vapor above, the outflow to its north and northeast is tremendous.

      I’ve been reading online the circulation is tilted with height. Think leaning tower of piza.

      It’s got to be vertically aligned.

      If this thing gets vertically aligned, a little further north and northeast into that anticyclone to its northeast, watch out !! It could explode starting in 12-24 hrs.

  29. Small line of storms that was west of Scranton, PA has now blown up into an impressive complex of storms south of Poughkeepsie- looks like that will be rolling into Mass. very soon

    1. Always interesting to watch those transitions between diurnal and nocturnal activity.

  30. Mother Nature my alarm clock this morning. Heavy rain and thunder currently happening.

  31. I’m writing blog update (which will be done before 9) and I was browsing some guidance, and went to load the 06z ECMWF on Pivotal Weather, and it’s April 12’s run. HAHAHA! Big storm cranking through the Great Lakes with snow showers on the back side for interior Northeast.

  32. The baseball season is long – especially regarding number of games played – and has many twists and turns. The Yankees are currently in a prolonged slump since around the middle of June, during which the Red Sox have climbed 8.5 games to now be within 4 games in the loss column. Last night the Sox absolutely stunned the Yankees in NY with an epic comeback win. Down to their last strike in the 9th Yoshida homered. Then in the 10th the Dutchman (Netherlands Antilles), Rafaela hit a go-ahead 2 run shot. The Red Sox stunned the Yankees last night. With 2 outs in the 9th and down 3-1, Dom Smith gets a pinch hit single, followed by Yoshida’s pinch-hit home run to tie the game. Then in the 10th the Dutchman, Rafaela comes through with a 2 run homer. Talk about quieting the crowd at Yankees stadium.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z78lQ3-qVAg

    The contract the Sox offered Rafaela in April now looks brilliant, as do several of the moves (even little ones like getting Dom Smith, a veteran utility 1st baseman).

    I am VERY happy to have been VERY wrong about the Sox in my March prediction.

    2. The Yankees record over the last 10 games is 2-8, worse than any other team. Not that long ago, they had the best season record of all.

      I don’t follow baseball very closely any more, but I like to see how the patterns and streaks flow and change as the long season plays out.

    3. A lot of people wrote the team off before the first pitch was ever thrown. Sports are not that predictable. 🙂

  35. Yankees since June 13th are 5-15 in the last 20 games. Worst record in baseball. 0-5-1 in their last six series.

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