Saturday July 6 2024 Forecast (9:03AM)

110 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

We’re at our most humid in this stretch of mugginess this holiday weekend, and the wettest weather for many areas will take place before noontime today as the remains of a convective complex cross the region from west to east (doing so now as I write). There are still some active thunderstorms in eastern CT up to about the MA border as of 8:45 a.m. while to the north it’s a gradually diminishing area of elevated-base rainfall. This area should continue to diminish gradually as it moves east but also lifts a bit north. Greatest rain coverage will be from eastern CT and northwestern RI through east central MA and south central to southeastern NH mid morning, with areas to the southeast not immune to passing showers / downpours / thunderstorms, but activity should last a shorter time there.

After the mid morning activity, we stay in the soupy warm sector much of today but there is a little less support to trigger numerous showers and storms, so I’m just looking for mostly pop-up isolated activity to be possible. One more line may try to organize later on in the day as a cold front ambles across the region, but this activity probably fades before reaching the coastal plain this evening and we just have a soupy air mass and not much more rain for most areas after what happens this morning. Later tonight, the front will cross and bring a reduction in the humidity which will become more noticeable Sunday. As the front is lazy to move through, some additional high and mid level cloudiness will be generated over the boundary and may limit our sun for a portion of Sunday morning, especially in southeastern areas, before we see more sunshine. It doesn’t look like we pop any showers Sunday, or Monday too as high pressure has a little more influence and there is more sunshine. The next disturbance from the west arrives later Tuesday to early Wednesday when we have another period of time when showers and thunderstorms can occur.

TODAY: Overcast with showers and embedded thunderstorms crossing much of the region mid morning, exiting late morning, then a sun/cloud mix with a pop up shower or thunderstorms possible from midday on. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lowers into 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Clouds dominate the morning along with potential lingering showers eastern and/or southern areas. Sun dominates the afternoon. Highs 83-90 except a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

The large scale weather pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast, a low pressure trough Great Lakes and Midwest, which creates a humid southwesterly air flow here, with warm weather and several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Current cautious call on when shower chances are highest: July 11 and 14.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

No big changes here. Still expecting a general westerly flow aloft with flatter high pressure off the East Coast, and a trough in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. General result is a warm pattern but no persistent hot weather. Humidity is often higher and there are a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities which of course cannot be pinpointed many days in advance.

110 thoughts on “Saturday July 6 2024 Forecast (9:03AM)”

    1. I figured you might be hearing a bit from that stuff to the south. It’s on the wane as the complex falls apart.

  4. Hood morning andxthank you Tk.

    Was up to 85 hete yesterday with dp to 75 and hreat index 94. yuck!!!

    why don’t the on air mets mention dew points any more?

    I am DISGUSTED!!@!@@

    1. The Ch 10 crew does. 🙂 I don’t watch too many others except spots now & again.

      1. Not anymore OR at leas NOT the last few nights with
        Dominic Brown (who I like very much by the way). Several nights ago he had a wonderful map showing the Dps for each day. Then it stopped!!! why?
        Management??????

        I don’t like it and it is PISSING ME OFF!!!!!!

          1. Write to him. I have his email if you can’t find. Pete has always been open to discussion. JR is as well

          2. If they are, it may be due to time constraints. If the news director gives them 100 seconds instead of 3 minutes, it’ll be hard to fit everything in with enough time for the viewer to actually comprehend what they just saw. 🙂 .. But definitely write, or even comment on social media if you have it (email probably best for you). They are good about reading and responding. On 10, Pete is particularly good at communication.

  6. So FB won’t allow Matt and Danielle to post weather outlooks. Or wouldn’t. Hopefully that has changed. And today I was notified my comment congratulating them and wishing them luck was removed by FB as spam

    1. I have no idea what’s going on with that, but I hope it gets fixed and soon. They are doing it right.

  8. Someone mention on yesterday’s blog about the 1st 3 named storms all hitting Mexico. I can only find 2 instances in the past 40 years where the 1st 3 named storms of the season all made landfall anywhere:

    2020:
    TS Arthur hits North Carolina
    TS Bertha hits South Carolina
    TS Cristobal hits Mexico and Louisiana

    2005:
    TS Arlene hits Cuba and Florida
    TS Bret hits Mexico
    Hurricane Cindy hits Louisiana
    Hurricane Dennis hits Cuba and Florida
    Hurricane Emily hits Grenada and Mexico (Yucatan and mainland)

    1. 2005 was just something .. that entire season.
      2020 was too, now that I think about it…
      Great stats, thanks!

      1. Most named storms in a season:
        30 – 2020
        28 – 2005
        21 – 2021

        Most hurricanes in a season:
        15 – 2005
        13 – 2020
        12 – 2010/1969

        Most major hurricanes in a season:
        7 – 2005
        6 – 2020/2017/2004/1996/1950/1933/1926

        Highest ACE in a season:
        258.6 – 1933
        245.3 – 2005
        231.1 – 1893
        229.6 – 1926
        227.1 – 1995
        226.9 – 2004
        224.9 – 2017
        211.3 – 1950
        188.9 – 1961
        181.8 – 1998
        181.3 – 1887
        180.9 – 1878
        179.8 – 2020

        The fact that 2020 ranks just 13th in ACE speaks volumes about how many short-lived and/or weak storms there was (and several were figments of NHC’s imagination). 1933 is still the king, and that’s without the benefit of satellite data, which means there were likely several storms that were completely missed that wouldn’t have been today.

    2. Thanks SAK – I too have been looking and can’t confirm if this has ever happened. However the first three making landfall is also interesting . So we already have somewhat of a historic start to the season. Thanks for sharing!

    1. I like him too. Who is chief there? No excuse for it not being Pete. But I have the sense he doesn’t play corporate games so maybe that’s all they’ve got ;(

      2. I smell corporate bullshit. Hope I am wrong.

        In the Summer, we NEED those dew point forecasts!! We just do. Some people are SERIOUSLY affected by the heat/humidity combo and it doesn’t have to be 90s heat.
        yesterday, it was 85 here BUT with a dew point of 75 which equated to a heat index of 94!!!! If someone is sensitive, that is a BRUTAL DAY!!!! My wife can’t leave the AC in weather like that else she gets very ill!! It is HORRIFIC!!!

        She HATES the summer. Absolutely can’t stand it!!!!!

        1. When I look at the DP on my dashboard, one of the first things that comes to mind is Mrs OS and many who struggle with these as well. My dashboard currently says 79/76. That is repulsive.

          My best guess is you are not wrong. I am happy to ask if you would prefer. While I believe Pete is among the best of the best, you would not know it by the way he is treated. Or maybe you would because he tries hard not to play the game.

          I will never understand why he was let go at whdh. I have a feeling Todd was not a corporate player either although Todd had a really nasty side which I know for fact and I honestly don’t think there is a nasty bone in Pete’s body.

          1. I Love Pete. He has really grown on me. In addition to be absolutely superb, he is quite the character as well and I really love that about him.

            Sure, since you kind of have an in with him, that would be great.

            My wife is convinced that there is some sort of management policy to suppress those dew point forecast, well, because it could affect the economy.
            people might not plan to shop or attend a sporting event or other event IF the dew points are high.
            So WITHHOLD the information from the public.
            Same deal with the rain. All we here now is
            It won’t be a WASHOUT!!!

            I am SICK TO DEATH of this CRAP!!!!!!!!

  13. Interesting take on the dps and the media.

    This is an opposite view of the media from what I read out there.

    I read folks who think the media is out of control, blowing everything out of proportion, only covering anomalous events and not the big picture and overusing words like unprecedented, etc

    But this dp take would, I think, be the opposite view, which is to say the media has something they could hype and are downplaying it.

    I just find it interesting. I’m not judging the media hypes everything vs the media ignores something (dew points) that seem anomalous to me.

    Anyhow, interesting. I wouldn’t want to be them 🙂

    1. I tend to agree with you.

      I don’t want to misinterpret your words though. Do you think not mentioning DPs is to avoid being accused of hyping.

      1. I’m not sure, good question, I didn’t give that any thought.

        I guess I was just thinking that most times, I feel the majority of thought i read out there is overhype and that the media will grab onto anything and everything and be over the top.

        I haven’t often read this take, where the media doesn’t report something that I sense has, if anything, hype opportunity.

        I’m not saying either thought is right or wrong, I just haven’t seen many who thinks the media underreports, when it comes to weather. Very infrequent.

        1. I’m thinking about this and didn’t want you to think I wasn’t answering. It may take a bit. It is an interesting topic.

        2. hear you and agree the media will grab onto click bait whenever it can. But isn’t it our responsibility to check and recheck. There are a ton of fact checkers.

          And surely we know enough not to listen to any source other than a meteorologist for weather. That was something I learned long before WHW came into being. If folks are basing views on non Mets or headlines and I’m betting a fair amount are, they do not have a lot of support from me.

          Hype can also be a knee jerk reaction…especially on social media. I posted the risk map on the Sutton site almost two Sundays ago. Someone accused me of hyping. It’s the new favorite buzz word for stirring the pot

          But Back to not taking the opportunity to hype DP. I agree that is very curious.

          I’m undoubtedly rambling. Am at the barn with granddaughter so my focus is in a few places.

  14. re: RadarScope

    My RadarScope issue has been resolved!!!!

    It was my Cisco Secure Client VPN that I used to connect to
    my office computer. Whenever I am connected to the office (virtually all the time) the radarscope would NOT work.

    I disconnected it, and VILOA, it works like a charm.

    https://ibb.co/tMScZBk

    I am happy now. I have my most favorite weather tool back at my disposal. 🙂 🙂

  15. Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 32
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
    1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

    Recently, a convective burst has developed near the center of Beryl
    in the northwestern quadrant, and the low-level center is for the
    moment no longer exposed. Tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA
    aircraft suggests that the cyclone has become better aligned
    vertically during the past few hours, likely due to the effects of
    this burst. Reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
    Hunter aircraft show that the central pressure is now near 997 mb,
    with the Air Force plane reporting severe turbulence in the
    convection. The initial intensity remains 50 kt for this advisory
    based on the flight-level and SFMR wind data from the two aircraft

      1. I think that’s the center of the mid level center and it’s impressive !!

        I think the low level center is still a little southeast of that, better aligned than last night, but still not fully vertical.

        That’s my guess 🙂 🙂 🙂

  17. ASH reporting 80 with a dewpoint of 80 right now. Here in downtown Nashua, we’re at 82 with a 78 dewpoint. Just checked in with the CO-OP observer in Hudson, NH – 81/77. Once again, most of the Merrimack Valley has DPs in the 75-78 range, with a few 79 and 80-degree ones showing up on Weather Underground, so the sensor at ASH may not be that far off, if it is at all.

  19. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024070612&fh=150&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Same idea, viewed from just looking at the US. 594-597 dm heights over New England with 600 and even a small 603 dm contour to our southeast.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024070612&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Corresponding predicted dew points.

    Euro has had this idea.

    Where the GFS has been hot, some euro runs have been incredibly humid along the east coast in the mid range.

  21. If that verifies, I know we’re getting some areas closing in on that 80F dp, one or more of Logan, Hartford, Providence might hit it, with Worcester not far behind in the upcoming medium time period.

        1. Let us hope.
          I can’t share this stuff with the Mrs. as she will get depressed just hearing it!!

  23. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2024070600&fh=174&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Unfortunately supported by the 00z euro, which finally is available on pivotalweather.

    594 close to 597 dm, with 600 dm just to our southeast.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024070600&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024070600&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Similar dps and its ring of fire rain is further northwest.

  24. BTW, try forecasting this:

    Mt. Tamalpais, at 2300 feet, about 20 miles NNW of San Francisco, is currently 94 at 9:25am local. 1 mile away and 1000 feet lower in Mill Valley its currently 56.

    Marine layer dominates the lower levels, while the heat is just off the deck.

  26. Both models, as of now indicate a couple days of that strong Bermuda high.

    It does break down, but not too pleasantly warm and crisp, but to less humid but much warmer, if not hot.

    For those looking for an 82F/50F dp kind of day, I think it’s going to be in the long range, 10 or so days out.

    And, sort of like last winter, a couple times it looked like some cold air might be near to our north during storms and then, as it got closer, it became clear the models had it too far south in the long range and in reality, the cold air was well north of Quebec even.

    I kind of have that in the back of my mind during this warm season, are the long range cool shots only to retreat north as the long range becomes the medium and then short range ??

  28. Mark Twain once said, “the coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco.” Friends of mine who’ve been in SF the past few weeks can confirm the veracity of that statement. They’ve been so cold at times that they’ve had to buy hoodies and one even purchased a scarf. But when they want some warmth, they only have to travel 10-15 minutes north, as SAK mentioned.

    1. Still remember my first trip out there – leaving Oakland it was 65 degrees. Drive through the Caldecott Tunnel through the Berkeley Hills, come out on the other side just 1 mile away in Orinda and it was 93. From there, we drove up to Martinez where it was 70, over to Sears Point where it was 65, then 10 miles north to my uncle’s house in Sonoma where it was 97.

    2. I found this out on my several trips there. But My BIL who lives just east of SF told me just a couple of nights ago that they were experiencing 100 degree days.

      1. That’s a cool stat, thanks SAK! Yeah, living out here you get used to the wide temperature swings, both between microclimates and throughout the day. On my morning walk today it was 65, and it’s now 97. But at the coast it’s still 65. Meteorologists always provide three temperature ranges- coast, bay, and inland. *But*, JPdave, dew point is 65, which is relatively high for around here.

          1. TK mentioned that so I figured you were. It took a long time to get used to living it (in some ways I’m still not used to it, I’m always forgetting to bring a jacket to the coast, or when I’m going to be out after sunset, and then I just shiver….)

  37. As I just said above, I’m at the barn. 80/75. But there is a lovely breeze which makes it far more comfy than I expected

  39. Well, England-Switzerland was an extremely dull game.

    Netherlands-Turkey made up for it. That was soccer at its very best.

    Both teams giving it their all.

  40. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024070700&fh=33&r=gom&dpdt=&mc=

    Another piece of guidance that shows, from about 6-8 hrs before landfall thru an hr or 2 past landfall, Beryl may be intensifying to its best version of itself.

    Below will be 2 radar simulations, 1 well before landfall and one an hr or so after landfall.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024070700&fh=24&r=gom&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024070700&fh=34&r=gom&dpdt=&mc=

    Post sunset on Sunday, 1st one

    Just before sunrise Monday morning is the 2nd

    Crunch time is Sunday overnight for intensification.

  41. Well, it was another nice day here in new Florida.

    It was 77F and misting this afternoon, from low clouds, which implies the dp couldn’t have been much below 77F.

    I’d go outside for a few minutes thinking, this isn’t bad without the sun and the breeze, then come back into the AC and get a shock at what 73F and a lot less humidity felt like.

      1. It really is.

        I am sitting here picking up my daughter from the levitate music festival in marshfield and the car windows are soaked from the AC

  42. The psychology of dealing with this storm worries me.

    Tomorrow, most of the day it could be in its current state.

    Then intensify decently in the final approach to the coast.

    The surge rises exponentially. Quite a different surge with a 998 mb, 65 mph tropical storm to a 980 mb, 90 mph hurricane. And it will be coming ashore prior to sunrise, in the dark.

    1. Cantore tweeted (above somewhere) that if he were in its path, he’d prepare for a cat 3. Doesn’t mean it will be but seemed he saw a potential

      For the record and based on a discussion earlier, I absolutely do not think this is hype. Far better to over prepare than under. Life or death far better

  45. Kinda interesting on the 00z stuff so far what it’s doing with Beryl.

    More of an interaction with a central us trof.

    Sending the remnants much further north and west into the northern MS valley.

    With Atlantic ridge building in, this might happen.

    1. A landfall on the central TX coast makes a big difference vs. one further south.

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