Sunday July 7 2024 Forecast (8:19AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

As we wrap up the holiday weekend (or holiday week for some, including me haha) we see warm and still humid weather, though behind a “kind-of” cold front that went through last night we will see a slight reduction in dew points during the course of today and into Monday as a small bubble of high pressure builds in. We can still see a couple isolated pop-up showers and maybe a thunderstorm this afternoon / early evening mainly near and east of I-95 and near and south of I-90, but most areas will remain quiet today. And don’t get used to any slight drying later today and Monday, because we have Florida weather on the way for Tuesday and midweek as tropical air returns, along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms once again. Also, we’ll need to factor in remnant moisture from Beryl, which after its long, historic early-season trek across the tropical Atlantic, southern Caribbean, Yucatan, and western Gulf of Mexico, will come ashore for the final time on the central Texas Coast. A landfall further south (South Texas or Mexico) would have likely buried that moisture and we’d probably have never seen it, but a landfall further north makes the moisture more available to the westerlies that deliver much of our weather, so it now becomes a factor. It’s hard to say how much it will add to our rainfall potential and exactly when that will be, but right now looking at a broad-brush window of time beginning sometime Wednesday and lasting through Thursday for the opportunity, and we can pin down the details as we get closer to that time.

TODAY: Clouds dominate the morning, especially I-95/I-90 east and south. More sun afternoon, but pop-up showers and possibly a thunderstorm later in the day once again favoring areas east and south of I-95/I-90. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point starts out 70-75 but reduces to 65-70. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH, but some more direct light coastal sea breezes may develop midday and afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. A few fog patches form, especially interior lower elevation locations. Lows 63-70, warmest in urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SW to W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevation locations. Lows 63-70, warmest in urban locations. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

Based on current projections, the shower and thunderstorm chances and humid weather continue through the July 13-14 weekend before some potentially drier air arrives. Temperatures near to above normal. Much to sort out and fine-tune in this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Still expecting a large scale pattern of westerly flow aloft, lower amplitude high pressure off the East Coast, trough position often in Ohio Valley to Great Lakes, may shift back to Upper Midwest at least for a short while. General weather idea here in this pattern is warm but not persistently hot, more humid than not, and a few opportunities for showers / thunderstorms.

83 thoughts on “Sunday July 7 2024 Forecast (8:19AM)”

    1. I am / I will!
      I don’t dread going back to work tomorrow, and it’s only for 4 days. Then I have a 3-day weekend. Then a 4-day week, then a 3-day weekend, then a 5-day week, then 2 weeks off. 😉

  2. Beryl is struggling against wind shear and is not re-intensifying much. It does have a short span of time it can do a little more strengthening but probably not back to recent NHC projections. Still, a formidable tropical cyclone to make landfall in Texas, and there will certainly be some wind damage (not catastrophic at least) and flooding.

    As mentioned in my discussion above, a landfall further up the Texas coast with a poleward trajectory, versus a landfall further south with a more westward trajectory, makes a significant difference in making the remnant low / moisture available to “board the westerlies” and head in this direction, eventually. See discussion for more, if you have not read it.

  3. Good mornong and thank uou TK.

    I think you may be a bit optimistic with the dp projections. I fear they may not drop below 70 and if they do won’t go below upper 60s. we shall see. Hoping for the best.

    This has occured many times before with the “wash out” “cold” fronts.

    We NEED some RELIEF!

    1. Could that set us up for super TROPICAL conditions with the potential for some juicy thunderstorms???????

    1. I was just out getting my coffee.

      Really oppressive with more sun than yesterday added to the mix.

      1. Texas radar

        https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy05Ni4wMzgsMjUuNTA0XSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjcuMzIsImZpbHRlciI6IldTUi04OEQiLCJsYXllciI6InNyX2JyZWYiLCJzdGF0aW9uIjoiS0JSTyJ9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOnRydWUsImJhc2UiOiJzdGFuZGFyZCIsImFydGNjIjpmYWxzZSwiY291bnR5IjpmYWxzZSwiY3dhIjpmYWxzZSwicmZjIjpmYWxzZSwic3RhdGUiOmZhbHNlLCJtZW51Ijp0cnVlLCJzaG9ydEZ1c2VkT25seSI6dHJ1ZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuOCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MC42fX0%3D

        1. Agreed that the IR/WV look different than the visible for appearances.

          Thanks for that radar, always really like radar looks of tropical systems.

  14. Wind shear drops off but dry air is now hampering Beryl. I suspect category 1 hurricane at landfall.

    Reed Timmer begs to differ. He made a post expressing the belief that rapid intensification is about to take place and that the storm will be a major hurricane at landfall in Texas. I disagree, strongly.

  15. Thanks, TK.

    Slightly disappointed with the frequently muggy, humid air thus far this summer. It’s reminded me of last summer.

    2. I am thoroughly convinced that higher dew point air prevalent is tied into HTE and I suspected at the end of last summer that we may see some more of that this summer (and we’ll see how long beyond). This type of thing was talked about in an article I posted, that effects can last up to a decade – though I don’t think it’ll be quite that long, and time will tell.

  16. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024070712&fh=18&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

    Pretty close to landfall (above)

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024070712&fh=24&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

    About 5-6 hrs after landfall and the pressure is lower

    This signal has been loud and persistent.

    It’s not a 4 or 5 coming ashore, maybe not even a 2 or 3.

    But I think a strong 1 is coming to shore and it might surprise some folks inland, away from the ocean as to how it maintains its intensity.

  19. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024070712&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Just 1 model run, 1 simulation, but this from the GFS has a squeeze play over central New England.

    The convergence is caused by a battle btwn a trof to our west and a stout ridge to our southeast. And, the convergence zone may also have some of beryl’s moisture in it.

    Later in the run

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024070712&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

  20. The following is hype and very unlikely, but

    An interaction btwn the trof to our west and the ridge to our southeast, add in Beryl moisture, factor in Tonga and ……

    That ridge and its flow itself will have such fetch over the very warm Atlantic …..

    Well, I just think a very high end rain event can’t be ruled out mid to late next week anywhere in the appalachians, mid Atlantic or northeast and by high end, I mean, a decades or century rain event.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024070712&fh=111&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Look at that setup on the 500 mb ridge, tremendous deep SE to S to SSW wind flow right into New England before intersection with a trof that will contain tropical remnant moisture.

    1. I read somewhere that the dew point would go down a bit today. Don’t remember where. 😉

  27. Well, I thought tonight would be an off night for Pyro Tour 24. Nope.

    Yesterday, Uxbridge very prematurely postponed their display to today, so that’s going on my list. If I hadn’t skipped going to Framingham on June 28, I’d be at number 12 in 12 nights today and 13 in 13 nights tomorrow.

    June 26: Hampton Beach NH
    June 27: Somerville MA
    June 28: (skipped the Framingham display)
    June 29: Braintree MA
    June 30: Wilmington MA
    July 1: Haverhill MA
    July 2: Tewksbury MA
    July 3: Gloucester MA
    July 4: Boston MA
    July 5: Lexington MA
    July 6: Salisbury Beach MA
    July 7: Uxbridge MA
    July 8: Groton MA
    July 9: off night
    July 10: Hampton Beach NH

    1. Saw that and thought it was a smart move. I’m
      Hearing in the uxbridge fb page that you don’t want to park at the school. I’ll see if I can find a good place

  29. I’m managing this year’s heat and humidity better by just not going outdoors at all some days. I spend a minimal amount of time outside unless it’s a rare coolish day. It’s a way to `survive’ the heat. But as I said before, when I see ads on TV that say “you’ve waited all year for this, now you can enjoy outdoor activities” I know their target audience ain’t me. The outdoors can wait until September, with a 2 week period in August in between when I’ll do a lot of things outdoors (possibly in the rain) when I’m in a relatively cooler climate: Great Britain.

  32. My son, DIL and grandson just stopped by for a visit. Both son and DIL said without my mentioning DPs that they are more of an issue than temp

  34. Matt and Danielle noyes posted this on FB. I’m far from the only person whose post was removed. Maybe we need to all post about 1Degree outside

    Hello Friends! Facebook & Instagram have, for now, banned all links to our website, believing our forecasts are offensive or spam . Best route is our website (our name above dot com), download Noyes’ 1DegreeOutside Weather app with videos atop the homepage, subscribe to our YouTube channel and X/Twitter. See you there!

    1. Apparently so. I donned my rebel hat and plan to post my support as often as fb takes it down

    1. Not to mention the amount of massive thunderstorms it keeps generating around the center.

      I think we’re watching the building of the eye wall and may have one by midnight.

  37. Thanks TK.

    Back from Spain last night and it was incredible. Missing the dry heat. Today just felt awful with the DP.

  38. Picked up my daughter from the 3rd and final night of the levitate music festival.

    There is no air movement and I think it’s as humid as it’s been all summer.

    My windows on the car with the ac running were so wet, that water drops were whisking away off the window as I drove off.

    My guess is the dp is 75, maybe higher.

  40. Beryl just makes it back to hurricane strength before landfall. While the conditions became favorable above the storm after a long period of limiting shear, it’s going to run out of warm ocean water. Great news in terms of wind / storm surge. Still will be a big rain producer though.

    1. It seems that rain often creates as large a threat or larger perhaps especially in that area

      Did you make it to Uxbridge? Where did you park? Oddly, on the Uxbridge line I didn’t hear anything. Does the thick air keep sound from traveling or just a fluke

      1. May have been location that you didn’t hear anything. I’d have to look more closely at topography. It was a pretty loud display.

        The place was mobbed. I parked on a side street called Rogers Crossing and walked about 1 mile down to the school the event was at. 🙂

        1. It was 8:40bt the time I connected with my daughter. She said her husband had gone to Hannaford earlier and told her everyplace was jammed. I’d forgotten that they had activities throughout the afternoon. There really were no options for good parking. You did well.

          We hear the Uxbridge display every year so it surprised me that we didn’t last year. Hope you enjoyed it!!

  41. A grandson was in the ER last night …fortunately for something quickly rectified. Although it took five hours. I slept only from 7-10:30 this morning . And yet I’m wide awake. Adrenaline works wonders.

      1. Thank you. He is fine. Just needs to be careful not to overuse his finger and restart bleeding.

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