Monday July 8 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 8-12)

This week will definitely be an example of summer’s definition. We start it with high pressure off the East Coast, “The Bermuda High”, which hangs around out there all week really. Ever-so-slightly drier air tried to work down from the north yesterday and tries to hang on today, most noticeably north of I-90, but the higher humidity wins out in all areas by Tuesday and then lingers through Friday. In addition a trough to the west helps set up an avenue for moisture to create showers and thunderstorms, beginning later Tuesday. The locations and coverage of these will depend on several factors, with probably low coverage in the region favoring areas away from the coast later Tuesday, favoring areas west and north Wednesday, then more widespread in coverage Thursday, with a little more uncertainty Friday. Enhancing the moisture for these will be the remains of Beryl which will be traveling through the Northeast between late Wednesday and Friday too. There will be a lot of day-to-day fine-tuning to do, so check updates (and comments where I sometimes add new thoughts after the daily update).

TODAY: Lots of sun. Highs 86-93 except a little cooler coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s, lowest north, highest south. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, some light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation and South Coast fog patches. Lows 67-74, warmest in urban areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW to variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches redevelop. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, may favor areas mainly well west and north of Boston. Highs 83-90, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 82-89, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible at times. Highs 82-89. Dew point 70+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

Watching for a south and east push of the boundary lessening the shower and thunderstorm chance during the July 13-14 weekend, but uncertain. Pattern transitions to a flatter offshore ridge and a little more westerly flow heading into the following week with still warm weather, but the opportunity to get drier air into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

General pattern – westerly flow aloft, low amplitude high pressure western Atlantic, weak trough Great Lakes to Upper Midwest. Warm pattern here, no persistent high heat, a few shower and thunderstorm chances.

83 thoughts on “Monday July 8 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Dps were in the low 70s here yesterday, till mid afternoon when it dropped briefly to 66, but then slowing rose again to 72 by early evening and stayed that way till just about dawn this morning when it dropped back to 66.

    Yesterday we made 89 in JP

    72 overnight.
    Currently 83, dp 66

    Ocean temp: 64.6 (Boston buoy)

    1. DP 64 at Logan, but 72 at Norwood.

      I don’t suspect the dps will stay in the 60s up this way for too long.

  8. I’m fully prepared to be called crazy this week for my lack of dislike for tropical air. 😉

    1. To each his own. You can like it all you want, just don’t try to get some of us to like it. 🙂 🙂

      As TOM says, this is the new FLORIDA!!!!!

      BTW, with this tropical air in place and the remnant moisture
      from Beryl in conjunction with an approaching front, could it
      be a recipe for SEVERE weather or just the trigger for INSANE RAINS?

      thanks

      1. Hah.
        The new Florida.
        Only temporary, of course. I did refer to Florida like weather regarding this pattern. 🙂

    2. My girls don’t mind it either. I didn’t when younger. Does that mean I’m wiser now or just old 🙂 🙂 😉

  9. Thanks TK! Dew points between 74-76 last 24 hours here on south coast. Felt like hottest day of year yesterday here – I enjoy it on beach not so much though on my morning runs

  10. Thanks TK. I have always disliked the high humidity but as I age it starts to be tougher for my body to handle it.

    1. No Shit! Wait till you get to be my age! My body DISLIKES it more and more with each passing year. Just the slightest bit of activity in this heat/humidity and my body starts to OVER HEAT
      and If I don’t stop and get in the AC with some water, I will be in trouble.

      This weather SUCKS for us older folks!!!!

    2. Mine too. My first thiught was wait till you get to JPDs and my age but see OS has that covered

      1. I hope your wife fairs ok in this stretch OS and doesn’t feel too bad. This is a long one.

  11. From the end of yesterday’s blog, it sounds like everything is ok with your grandson Vicki and I hope that is the case. Those ER visits can be stressful almost due to their wait times alone.

    1. Ditto!!

      I DON’T like the way people are treated in the ER.

      NOTHING Like depicted on Chicago Med. 🙂 🙂

    2. Thank you. He is fine. The ER treatment upset him more than the injury. He took the pad of his pointer finger off trying to cut a zip tie with kitchen scissors. They thought they’d stopped bleeding but when he went to bed it restarted. So they headed to the ER. The person who checked him in did everything she could have accusing him of lying and saying he was really using a knife. She was horribly rude to my daughter too which further upset my grandson. Then they waited from 2:30-5:00 to see a dr when there was only one other person in ER.

      1. digusting. As I stated before, I do NOT like the way people are treated in The ER. Sometimes that goes for an office visit as well.

            1. Sorry to hear that Vicki. My daughter has been an ER nurse for about a year now. No excuse for that attitude, etc. your daughter got. It’s a demanding job with a lot of stress but still no excuse.

              My daughter mid-afternoon today at a non-Boston ER had 33 people in the waiting room. It is her last day this week and she will move to the South Coast hospital system and into a cardiac unit job. Today, she had two Covid patients she was overseeing.

              1. I’ve been following your daughter a bit with posts from your wife. She is a tremendous addition to our medical community. I have a feeling it is protocol to check for abuse but there needs to be training. When you have a scared 11 year old, you don’t attack.

                That said, I feel for all ER staff. and honestly all in the medical field. It is struggling right now

                1. Training and for them to keep a child waiting 3 hours when there is only one other person there is crazy.

                2. I thought so too. Fortunately sons son arrived to play as a surprise yesterday so all was forgotten.

  15. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

    You get a September hurricane to knock out vasts area of power, don’t get me wrong, it’s still hot in the south in September, but not July hot and not July sun strength.

    This is a story to watch in the coming days, how are people going to stay cool down there ? And the nights don’t cool off and that’s when the real heat health issues start.

    1. Oh nooooo. How did I not know it’s your birthday. I’m so sorry. Happy, happy birthday, Captain

  17. I finally have a tripod for both kestrels so can compare them. To my surprise and delight, their readings were identical to the tenth of degrees.

    87.5/66.9 as of 11.22

    1. Don’t understand accidents on a highway with speeds of maybe 10 mph at most. I never knew of so many deaths (100) unrelated to the hurricane itself.

  25. It generally doesn’t get as muggy in Germany as it does here, but the German language has an interesting array of words to describe our current weather type:

    Schwül
    In a sentence: Es ist schwül und ich schwitze schon nach wenigen Minuten. Say that 10 times as fast as you can. An epic German tongue twister.

    Feuchtwarm

    Drückend

    Stickig

    Mutmaßlich

    Feuchtheiß

    Ungemütlich

    And my favorite is the Dutch word “benauwd” which literally means narrowing, or in this case limiting the ability to breath properly.

  28. Very healthy sea breeze today. 🙂

    So if the ECMWF has any clue, we may not actually see all that much rain from the remains of Beryl.

    1. Matt, I don’t know if i would call it temperate as it never really gets cold in Winter and SUmmers can be very hot. We have a niece who lives in Melbourne. Almost more subtropical than temperate, but perhaps it would still be categorized as temperate.

      1. by any chance could I have contact information? An opportunity has arisen for me and I am trying to get all the information I need to make a decision. email is souzamatt12@gmail.com if possible.

  32. I think the models did a decent job showing Beryl get its most intensification just before landfall. In actuality, I think it’s pressure dropped from 988 to 979mb in the last few hrs.

    The models also got that for a few hrs after landfall, Beryl would hold most of its intensity.

    The models didn’t come east enough initially at landfall and I think beryl then tracked a bit further east than projected, again after landfall.

    This got Houston into that slowly deteriorating east side of the eye wall, but still good enough to pack a punch.

    I think some inland areas even further north of Houston were a bit surprised about the wind they saw.

  34. We were at Hampton Beach pretty early today. When we left for home at 2:00pm, the car thermometer read 73. I can believe it. In the gentle sea breeze and out of the direct sun it was wonderfully comfortable.

    2. Nice ! I miss going to Hampton and further up, York and Ogunquit beach. That’s where we went from Lowell.

      1. I’m not surprised. Mac (as I’ve said a million times) did a lot of testing of liquids which included water. Once summer heat hit, we stopped swimming in local ponds and lakes. He didn’t have a lot of faith in local testing

        Are beaches Down that way closed?

  36. For a while today, the air was not dry, but it wasn’t thick.

    That has changed in the last couple hrs.

    Back to oppressive. Difference btwn outside and inside ac extremely noticeable again.

    1. Huge difference with the AC, just watered the plants and I came in and you could feel the thickness.

  37. Thanks for the welcome back comments.

    Saw your comment yesterday Vicki, it was amazing. I have had the privilege to travel all over the world and southern Spain is close to the top. The weather inland is hot as heck, too hot for my liking but no humidity which was wonderful. I would take the 104 which Seville hit with a DP of 46 vs the last two days here. Lol.

    The history, culture, sites etc… were something else. Alhambra left me speechless. We spent a week at the Mediterranean resort and it was close to heaven.

    Longshot if you see this, any travel plans?

    Ace, how was Italy?

  39. Hints on the GFS still of humidity relief mid week next week into Saturday. Praying for it to happen!

  40. Hello All.

    Baltics trip has been just great. They’ve come a long ways since the Soviets left 30 years ago. The people are amazing.

    The weather has cooperated.A little rain but it happened while on bus rides or indoors.

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