Thursday July 11 2024 Forecast (7:22AM)

69 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)

A trough trailing the remnant low that was once Beryl will bring some scattered showers to our region this morning before we return to more sun. Another very warm and muggy day is in store, but the ventilating breeze that developed yesterday will continue today, removing the stagnation and also reducing the humidity a little in downslope regions. What’s left of that trough will be near the South Coast and Cape Cod into Friday with this region seeing the best chance of additional pop up showers. The thunderstorm chance is down during the next 48 hours with more activity taking the form of just tropical showers. Saturday, a ripple-back of the trough and a quick-moving disturbance from the west will combine to boost the shower and thunderstorm chance for the morning to early afternoon – details and timing TBD, but this should end during the afternoon as a front pulls through the region. This will introduce somewhat less humid air, but you won’t really notice that until Sunday, which will feature fair weather and lots of sun. Monday may end up being an interesting day as the humidity tries to make a comeback and a disturbance approaches from the west, setting up a thunderstorm chance. More later…

TODAY: Abundant clouds and scattered showers, a few possibly briefly heavy, during this morning, ending west to east midday, then lots of sun with passing clouds for the balance of the day. Highs 83-90 but a little cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point in 70s but may drop below 70 at times on lee sides of hills. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches return to South Coast. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Pop up showers are possible but mainly South Coast / Cape Cod. Highs 83-90. Dew point 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly morning and midday. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 67-74. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Few interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

A spell of heat and humidity returns for July 16-17 with only isolated t-storms possible. A cold front brings more widespread shower/storms July 18 followed by a push of summer polar air and pleasant weather July 19-20 as a stronger westerly air flow takes over the pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

A westerly air flow allows some up and down temperatures and a couple shower / thunderstorm threats, but overall typical July weather.

69 thoughts on “Thursday July 11 2024 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    Made 90 yesterday with dp up to 77!

    o ernight low 77!

    Currently 78

    ocean tempersture: 61 2 (Boston buoy)

    Our dew point dropped late afternoon yesterday getting down to 68 by mid evening. It was the same sulltry airmass, so what caused the drop from 77 to 68??? Not that 68 is dry, but a far cry from 77.

    Was it the wind and the added ventilation? perhaps pulling down some slightly drier air from above?
    passage of trough?
    curios, as the dp is right back up there at 73 now.

    Many thanks

      1. Oh sure. Wise guy. 630 feet down to 71 feet. yah that’s the ticket. The wind did turn more to the SOuth and Blue Hill is 8 miles due South of me. 🙂

        DP was 68 at Logan as well. How do you account for that?

        I just don’t get it.

      1. Well I thought I was on toddy’s blog. That was for lady night. And I’ll get my coffee before posting again

  3. Thanks TK
    From NWS Boston.
    Gusty
    southwest winds from yesterday will persist into today as well with
    a relatively impressive low-level jet for mid-July overhead. Mixing
    of drier air aloft to the surface will support dewpoints falling
    into the upper 60s across most of interior southern New England this
    afternoon. This will support a slight improvement to the oppressive
    heat and humidity that has been observed the last few days.

  9. Thanks TK.

    It’s sunny and in the 80s on our cruise ship in the Caribbean. Weather has cooperated the entire week with nothing more than a quick passing shower a couple nights. We are north of Cuba heading back towards the Bahamas after three stops in Roatan and the Yucatán in Mexico. Actually sounds like it is a bit cooler down here than in New England and at least we have the trade winds. Not looking forward to coming back.

    Things were business as usual in Cozumel yesterday. Saw a few branches and small trees down in a couple locations and crews working on a utility pole but overall not much damage from Beryl. We did a day pass at one of the resorts and the workers there said the winds moved several of the palapas around but they cleaned everything up well and you wouldn’t know there was a hurricane there five days prior.

  10. So far not many confirmed tornadoes for all the warnings.

    A colleague of mine is working on that information.

    I mentioned yesterday that the amount of warnings made it look like something more historic than it will actually turn out to be.

    The reason for that is they changed the criteria for issuing warnings.

    I don’t really think it’s a good idea necessarily, because I think it results in more false alarms and over time less trust in the system.

    1. I saw that post and as you know I always prefer to air on the side of caution. I get exactly what you mean that some folks might stop taking warnings seriously. And you are absolutely correct. But my view on that mirrors my view on using apps or media headlines for weather. That is the fault of the individual and not the source. We spend a lot of time lately playing to the lowest common denominator.

      Even if no tornadoes are confirmed, the photos above show some serious destruction. We know it doesn’t take a confirmed tornado to put us at risk. I’d want to be warned and head to the basement. But that is just me. .

      1. This one is always tricky because I wouldn’t want them to miss a potential life threatening situation, so I’m not as much against the current protocol as I worry about education and reminders for the public and making certain it’s understood.

        1. I sure agree there. Sadly, there is a segment of public that no matter how much is explained will want to complain. I sure wouldn’t want to be in any business that deals with people….especially now

  17. Thanks, TK!

    80/74. We just had some sun in the last half-hour.

    77 DPs in New Bedford, Norwood and Smithfield.

    I believe Eric said last night that yesterday’s dewpoint maximum was one of the highest ever recorded in Boston.

  18. Thanks TK

    Honestly I can’t remember a more brutal stretch of DP than the last week. I love hot weather but the DP are killer.

  19. This is mid-late next week.

    Yes, decent trof makes some inroads as it passes by to the north.

    But, the western flank of the Bermuda high is there just south and east of us. Can see the circulation to our southeast on these 850 mb maps.

    Northern, even central New England have a reasonable shot at some drier air.

    But southern and southeastern New England, well, the oppressive air should be displaced, but getting under 60F dp, that might be a struggle.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2024071112&fh=159&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2024071112&fh=207&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

            1. Our house is so badly set up for AC. Even with the heat pump which uses less kWh. Heat oddly costs far far less.

  20. Rough count so far … Beryl and remnants.
    200+ tornado warnings.
    36 confirmed tornadoes.

      1. If it is reported to NWS it would be reported as wind damage.

        If it was related to a thunderstorm it would be recorded as TSTM damage and if it was not it would be referred to as NON TSTM wind damage.

        1. It would be interesting to know how many have damage serious to be investigated but are not determined to be caused by a tornado. The nws has to have records of that.

          Are you thinking the nws should not issue as many? I did take the opportunity to write to a few Mets for a viewpoint. Although I doubt that surprises you. It’s an interesting topic. Thank you

  22. I have not found a tweet in this from Pete yet. If you have FB the link is below to photos.

    Flooding was intense last night as torrents of rain pummeled communities from the southern end of Lake Champlain to the Mahoosuc Range of Maine. The Northeast Kingdom was especially hard hit as over 6” of rain fell in a matter of a couple of hours.

    Flooding in downtown Lyndon

    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/mzuNyNWkm4dsj6zE/?mibextid=WC7FNe

  23. In Helsinki today. Temp is been upper 60’s with a light breeze. A little bit of rain.

    Noticed that waves in the Drake Passage have been reaching 30 feet. I believe that wave heights there can get a little higher during their winter.

    Here’s a shot I took from the ship a year and a half ago. The bird is a Wandering Albatross.

    https://imgur.com/a/cC8pklF

  24. Thanks, Longshot. Upper 60s and light rain in Helsinki, I am PRAYING for that when I’m over in England next month. Watch, they’ll have a record heat wave.

    I am so done with this crap.

    Tried running outside today. The bridges were okay because there was some wind. But everywhere else it was just plain awful. I’m like a hermit now. I hardly ever go outside. When I do, I pay, with headaches, nausea, dizziness and malaise (almost flu-like).

  25. Still smarting from the loss against England. England was the better team overall. But I was rooting for the Dutch. Oh well.

    The officiating was dreadful. No surprise. It is soccer. By definition, it’s poorly officiated and extraordinarily arbitrary or just plain wrong (awarding goal kicks when a corner should have been awarded; happens every game multiple times, infuriating). To an American like me it’s a downside to the sport that I never can shake. In any case, I just found out that the German referee for the Holland-England game was involved in a match-fixing scandal in 2005. How on earth does that not result in a lifetime ban? He’s a friggin’ ref, for goodness sake.

  27. 85° in the pool today at the apartment complex where I live. 85° 75°dewpoint. Dewpoint has been averaging 73° 75° all day.

  31. My son had to ump back to back games tonight. And then has 4 games Saturday. What it is to be 14 nearly 15

  32. As is common, former tropical cyclones often produce heavy to excessive rainfall along their paths sometimes for thousands of miles beyond their landfall point.. This tells us that we should not be surprised about the heavy rainfall along the path of former Hurricane Beryl and now the storm’s remains.

    Most forecast guidance did a very good job forecasting this event in both magnitude and location with 3 to just over 7 in of rain along the path from NY into NNE. The intense rainfall race associated with this were responsible for some areas of serious flooding.

    A few hundred miles further south east in the track of the remnants and that would have been ours down here. Not the case this time.

  33. None of the 90F reports at Logan today fell at the 54 minute mark.

    10 of them, all rounding probably as explained by SAK.

    Probably 3rd day in a row of 89F.

  37. Hey we have z low already for last couple is days. Down to a chilly 74. Last two night lows were 77 and 76

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