Friday July 12 2024 Forecast (8:46AM)

78 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)

No big changes in the overall picture heading into and through the weekend. We’re looking at high pressure – The Bermuda High – still in place while a trough of low pressure hangs out nearby on the periphery of the high pressure area’s circulation. This set-up is a warm to hot and humid one, although a busy breeze and a slight reduction in humidity yesterday took the edge off that. We don’t get especially hot today or Saturday while the humidity remains rather high, and there will be a breeze too – though not as gusty as the last couple days. We’ll also look at some shower threats, but no long-lasting period of wet weather. Today’s threat looms until around midday for areas mostly south of I-90 with a narrow ribbon of moisture allowing for some pop up shower development. This shifts to more of an isolated air mass pop-up situation this afternoon, with less coverage but the potential for a few isolated torrential downpours including thunder. Most areas will not see these, so if you have outdoor plans go about them, but keep an eye on the sky / radar. On Saturday, a disturbance rippling up the flow enhances the shower and thunderstorm potential for the first 2/3 of the day but this then ends from west to east during the afternoon as a boundary with drier air arrives. This lower dew point air will be evident at night and on Sunday, despite it still being a very warm day on Sunday, with abundant sun. Early next week, humidity makes a comeback but may do so with a flare up of thunderstorms on Monday before we have a more tranquil but hot and humid day Tuesday. Details to be worked out…

TODAY: Morning to midday sees variable clouds and scattered showers, some downpours, mainly south of I-90. Afternoon is mostly sunny to partly cloudy with isolated showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 82-89, bit cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms morning to early afternoon, then ending west to east. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 67-74. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Few interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

A more westerly air flow dominates. This drives a frontal system through with thunderstorm chances a little earlier than previously expected – window July 17 into July 18 – timing to be pinned down more specifically. Fair, seasonably warm and lower humidity weather July 19-20. Next unsettled weather may arrive late in the period as higher humidity makes a return.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

A westerly air flow allows some up and down temperatures and a couple shower / thunderstorm threats, but overall typical late July weather.

78 thoughts on “Friday July 12 2024 Forecast (8:46AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 89 yesterday with overnight low of 72

    Currently: 82 with dp 69

    Ocean Temperature: 60.8

    I csn only assume the low water temperature is due to upwelling caused by a few days of gusty winds. It happens.

    We were in Atlantic City one August and the water temperature was 58 due to upwelling when normally it would be at least in the mid 70s or higher.

  3. Funny thing,

    We are able to get more than 1/2 our house so cool , that I cannot wear shorts in this weather and have to wear jeans.

    I am not complaining, I just find it interesting. 🙂

    1. We set up a small fan network cooling all of mom’s section of the 2-family house with 1 relatively small AC and it’s working great. 🙂

      Between that and a new recliner she’s a happy camper.

      1. We’re using a similar set up, except with three(3) 6,000 btu window units. It’s doing a great job. If we get a day where it is
        98 and 72 dew point, might not work quite as well, but so far so good. 🙂

        1. We did that in Framingham. Worked great and a heck of a lot less expensive than what we have now.

  4. Meanwhile, they’re ice skating on rivers in Argentina, Scandinavia-style, as they suffer their coldest winter since 1907. 🙂

  6. From WGC…

    On this date in 1936 a prolonged and severe heat wave across most of North America was just beyond its half way point. The heatwave spanned from July 5 through July 17.

    Ontario and Manitoba Canada set all time record highs above 110F that are still untouched. The two provinces saw 1180 deaths during the heatwave, which included 400 drownings from people trying to escape the heat by swimming.

    The heat was so severe that steel rail lines twisted, sidewalks cracked and buckled, and fruit basically “baked” on trees. Many crops were lost.

    St. Albans and Emerson in Manitoba reached 112F. Brandon, Manitoba, hit 111F. Atikokan, Ontario, hit 108F, and Winnipeg, Manitoba, also hit 108F. All of these are all time records.

  10. The Boone swoon continues. How much longer can Yankee brass let this go on? Seriously. A week or even 2 of subpar play happens during any baseball season, even with good teams. But it’s not normal for that to extend to a month after such a dominant first 2 plus months. Not a club with as much talent as the Yankees have. And I don’t want to hear about injuries. The Red Sox have had way more and have been able to manage them, and have less overall talent. I don’t think Boone is capable – and ever has been capable – of doing what Cora does.

  11. WBZ radio: “Extreme heat and humidity in Boston right now.”

    Meanwhile the temperature and dew point at 10:00 a.m. at Logan are 84 and 67.

    Definitely extreme heat and humidity, for Antarctica. 😉

  13. I heard back from one individual I asked about tornado warnings. I’ll post his response.

    Tom, there is a message for you at the end 🙂

    “It’s funny you mention that. We were talking amongst ourselves about it. We’ve noticed it really depends on the NWS office (and who’s working there). On Tuesday, NWS Taunton didn’t warn a severe storm coming out of W. Mass at all. And so far this summer, they’ve held back on Tornado Warnings that in past years would have been issued on the spot. Last night, there were two TWs in northern NH that were buried in the mountains, so I think they (NWS Gray) erred on the side of caution. However, there was clearly rotation on another cell near West Paris, ME that they held back on. My personal conversation with Joe D. at NWS Taunton was that if they feel there might be a chance for a low-grade tornado, they are now putting ‘tornado possible’ tags on the Severe Thunderstorm Warnings to cover themselves. Then if there’s a stronger signal, they will issue the Tornado Warning.

    It’s clearly a complex situation!

    Give my best to Tom.”

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Thanks Vicki.

      As you know, how he presents on TV is how he is in actuality.

      Genuine, down to earth and humorous.

      Also, proud to see Lyndon so well represented on Boston TV. Pete, JR and Cindy (I believe)

      1. That is Pete through and through. I mentioned at some point one early December when there were signs of a storm that Dec 9 was our anniversary and had seen several storms in past years. On that Dec 9, he messaged me to say happy anniversary. He also wrote to me after Mac passed. He’s a special person. I don’t know Cindy but JR is as sincere and kind as Pete.

        Speaking of Lyndon….did I see severe flooding there.

        1. Yes, unreal.

          There is a small river one crosses over before taking a left and climbing a hill to the campus.

          The river is a long way from the Main Street in town, so, that’s a lot of water that went into that river to get it to places like the Ms lyndonville diner, etc.

    3. I’ll add I was never aware of the tag on severe t storms till JJ pointed them out to me. My guess is they are missed by the vast majority

  14. Joshua I could tell you listening to NY sports talk and the fans calling in want Boone gone or have Boone rip players during the press conference. Boone has and never will rip players during a press conference. The other thing since the Yankees last World Series in 2009 the fans are upset that only one person lost their job and that was Joe Girardi. The Yankees are 0-7-1 and their last eight series and have the worst record in baseball since June 13th. Through the first 70 games the Yankees were the best team in baseball. Now during this bad stretch they lost Stanton and Rizzo. The pitching has gone south during this stretch. During the first 70 games Yankees starters had one of the best ERA’s in baseball as well as the bullpen pitchers.

    1. I think Boone is a nice guy. I actually think it’s a good thing he doesn’t rip players. Cora doesn’t either, by the way (well, except Verdugo).

      I also think baseball managers rarely win games or lose them. BUT they do set the tone. They can create an atmosphere conducive to winning. They can change things up. I fear there’ some inertia with Boone. I’ve watched his pressers after losing games. He has the look of someone who’s vulnerable, almost fearful. That’s not a good thing. Certainly not when you have the talent the Yankees have.

    2. The Orioles are not playing well either, not as bad as the Yankees.

      Somehow, the Sox are 5 games or so out of 1st place. I am pleasantly stunned.

  15. As a Yankees fan the Cubs did us a favor sweeping the Orioles after the Yankees lost two of three in Tampa. The Yankees at the trade deadline are probably going to get some bullpen pieces and add a bat.

  17. Cora’s been masterful, in my opinion. He knows how to motivate young players and get the most out of them. The new pitching coach has helped, too.

    And while Cora doesn’t throw particular players under the bus, he calls out the team’s effort – their defense, for example – when needed. That’s important.

  18. JPD check your entries. Your username is appearing as “nks” and all comments going to moderation. I can fix the first 3 but I’m going to be on the road soon and gone for the rest of the day so I might not be able to check after that. 🙂

    1. Yes, I saw that and fixed it. I have NO CLUE how the hell that happened?
      Word Press mystery? Or my keyboard skills or lack thereof?

  19. For a while now, almost every day our lows at night have been higher than London’s maximum daytime temps. Our dewpoints have consistently been >20 degrees higher than London’s.

    I wouldn’t mind it if this period was short-lived. But this is a prolonged stretch of what in my view is unbearable weather.

    I’m just too old for this. I feel ancient.

    1. It has been very sustained.

      Since June 13th, 29 days, 23 of them have been above average temp wise. And that’s Logan, where during the day, it’s been slightly cooler than just inland and even with that, 23 above, only 6 below.

  21. London currently: overcast, 66F, dewpoint 50. I’d kill for this. Not literally. I’m not violent. But man does it look appealing.

    It does look may warm up into the mid 70s by next week, BUT they’ve been saying this (predicting a slight to modest warm-up) for several weeks and been wrong each time. The only correct forecasts have been the very short-term ones of less than 3 to 4 days out.

    1. Northwestern Europe has been so cool so often during the last half year or longer now.

      1. This signal has been consistent, if not even leaning towards a better push of dry air with time.

        Still warm, 850mb temp 10-12C even behind the cool front, but 86F with a 52F dp will feel wonderful after this 🙂

  24. No Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere.

    No areas of immediate concern in the Atlantic.

    “Where have all the cyclones gone?” (you can figure out the tune) ..

    Also backing off on the forecast for La Nina .. neutral longer.

    3. Let’s keep it that way through end of August. Next destination is Aruba with FIL/SIL. We are taking them since MIL death.

  25. My autoimmune disease flare up is over. I am back in remission. 🙂 (and 12.5 pounds lighter than I was in April – not that I needed that but hey …)

  30. If I am reading the models correctly, Doesn’t look like much up this way tomorrow (1/2 or so) Much more to the South.
    We shall see.

  31. Thanks, TK!

    Floridian tropical downpour now!

    My guess, the sun will be out in about 15! 🙂

    1. They’ve been much drier than most of southern New England, so the threshold for flooding is significantly higher than the rest of the region

    2. from what I can tell, there is too much Northern extent on that flood watch.
      Move it farther South and it would be more realistic. Just how I see it fwiw. 🙂

  33. Sometimes unexpected obituaries hit you hard. Gail Wilensky passed away. I did not know she was sick. She was a titan among health policy experts. A hero of mine. Someone who I had some strong disagreements with. But I never let disagreements or politics spoil my admiration for someone. She knew her stuff, articulated it well. The world needs more Gail Wilenskys. https://gailwilensky.com/

  35. So far only 6 named storms in the Northern Hemisphere tropical basins. One of the slowest overall paces to the main season on record.

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