Saturday July 13 2024 Forecast (8:46AM)

57 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

Your weekend features a split – with warm and muggy weather today, showers and possible thunderstorms until mid afternoon, then drying out. We have to wait for a disturbance to pass through while a quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisects the region. This front will begin an eastward drift, and its northeast-to-southwest orientation means that the bulk of the rainfall coverage from the main event this morning and midday will be generally from the I-95 belt southeastward, though areas west of there are seeing showers initially. The region southeast of I-95 and especially south of I-90 stands the greatest chance of some flooding issues from heavier rain as quite a swath of rain will be moving through between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. While a drying trend takes place from west to east starting from midday on, one additional bit of instability combined with daytime heating can trigger a couple isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms over interior southern NH and MA later in the day, but odds are most locations will see nothing from this potential. Just keep an eye out if you are out and about. Tonight, drier air arrives. This isn’t genuine Canadian crispness but noticeably lower dew point air that will set up the second half of the “split” I referred to above regarding the weekend weather, and that is a Sunday with plenty of sun and lower humidity, but still quite warm to even hot, but very nice for outdoor summertime activities. Monday through Wednesday, the heat of summer, along with higher humidity, will be back as the Bermuda High re-takes control of the weather. I think the atmosphere will be unstable enough to allow for the potential for at least interior late-day thunderstorms Monday, too stable for anything Tuesday, and then we’ll have to watch for the approach of storms later Wednesday, which is going to be depending on the timing of an a cold front heading this way. This part of the forecast needs to be re-examined and fine-tuned in future updates.

TODAY: Cloudy until midday with showers and embedded thunderstorms, most numerous and heaviest I-95 southeastward where local flooding is possible. Clearing trend midday on from west to east with sun returning, but a few more clouds pop up and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly interior southern NH and northern MA later in the day. Highs 75-82 South Coast, coolest Cape Cod, 82-89 elsewhere. Dew points 70+, lowering from northwest to southeast late-day. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, shifting to W by late-day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forms interior lower elevation locations. Lows 66-73. Dew point falls to 60s. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 85-92. Dew point falls to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Few interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Potential late-day thunderstorms, favoring western locations. Highs 86-93. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 87-94. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Potential afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

Canadian air – dry, lower humidity, seasonable temperatures July 18-20 (note that July 18 may be a transition day if we have a slower-moving front). Humidity and shower chances increase later in the period as high pressure shifts offshore.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

A weak zonal flow pattern keeps a similar pattern going. A shot of humidity with some heat, breaks mid period with another Canadian air mass.

57 thoughts on “Saturday July 13 2024 Forecast (8:46AM)”

  1. Good Morning and thank you TK

    Made 85 here in JP yesterday with dps to 75

    Overnight low 75

    Curently: 77

    Ocean Temperature: 61.2 (Boston Buoy)
    72.9 (Block Island)

    1. Another view

      https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy03MS4xMzcsNDEuOTU2XSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjcsImZpbHRlciI6IldTUi04OEQiLCJsYXllciI6InNyX2JyZWYiLCJzdGF0aW9uIjoiS0JPWCJ9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOnRydWUsImJhc2UiOiJzdGFuZGFyZCIsImFydGNjIjpmYWxzZSwiY291bnR5IjpmYWxzZSwiY3dhIjpmYWxzZSwicmZjIjpmYWxzZSwic3RhdGUiOmZhbHNlLCJtZW51Ijp0cnVlLCJzaG9ydEZ1c2VkT25seSI6dHJ1ZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuOCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MC42fX0%3D

  3. Thanks TK
    Watching Wednesday to see if this heat and humidity end with a bang with thunderstorms!

  6. Anyone on Medicare should pay attention to a Federal Trade Commission report posted this week. See link below. It may have more impact on what you pay for your medicines than any legislation passed under Biden or executive order under Trump. Currently, many Medicare beneficiaries with coverage pay more out-of-pocket for drugs than their health plans do. This is because of shenanigans played by stakeholders in our drug supply chain. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2024/07/11/ftc-report-accuses-pbms-of-negatively-impacting-patients-and-pharmacies/

    1. Thank you Joshua. Will read once I have coffee. Medicare and my BCBS supplement have excellent benefits at reasonable prices. As you know it’s my part D prescription plan that is very expensive for any tier over 1 or 2. Asthma precautions are just one example. I am very thankful, however, that I didn’t opt for one of the advantage plans

    1. Well, it was a “watch” and not a warning, so they were right to issue it based on the potential existing with the best info we had.

      They can drop it. I’d leave it up for CC / SE MA for a bit longer.

      I’d then be on alert to issue FF warnings for any slow-moving isolated storms that pop up inland later … although I think the coverage on those will be very low.

        1. They could have, but that would be up to the forecaster(s) on duty who may have had a different opinion when it came time for them to issue / update.

          They may have opted to leave it in place with the “non-zero” threat of isolated to scattered torrential downpours associated with thunderstorms later today.

    2. We are on the back edge of the precipitation field and it was evident yeaterday afternoon that precisely this would be the case. 🙂

  12. We are on the back edge of the precipitation field and it was evident yeaterday afternoon that precisely this would be the case.

  13. TK, my name keeps getting changed and I don’t know how this is happening. Word Press SUCKS!!!!

    1. Not sure. Saw one today, 3 yesterday. Only yours recently has done that, but several others have done it too before, seemingly at random.

      WP does indeed suck and I am still entertaining the idea of other platforms at some point. I just haven’t moved forward on that much due to other priorities.

        1. I have had that happen and drives me nuts. Your understanding of technology far surpasses mine but… Could it be your new phone or did I make up that you got a new phone. Does it give you the option of saving the info in your browsers?

  14. Sun trying to break through in SE sutton

    TKs posts got me curious about hurricanes….mostly cause it’s a rainy Saturday and it passes the time. So just me rambling. Thank you, TK.

    If FOX news is right, this is latest year for first named storm since 2014. Thinking back to hurricanes that impacted me enough to leave a distinct memory …

    Carol $3 was late August I believe and was the storm that triggered my interest in weather
    Bob #2 is easy to remember on Mac’s birthday mid august
    Gloria #7 was late September
    Hugo #8 was early/mid september
    Katrina #11 was mid/late August

    I remember 2005 being a horrific year and think it was June 8 before first named storm.

    Disclaimer…..please please correct me if any of this is wrong. A lot is from an old memory.

    2. They are correct I do believe. As you know, a slow start does NOT necessarily mean a slow season. We’ve seen things come alive in a big way on several occasions after slow starts.

      The lack of ENSO to head into La Nina may become a limiting factor, however, which would not be a bad thing. 🙂

      As far as storms that impact us or we remember – many reasons exist for it, but the most common is direct experience or correlating it with something.

      For you, Carol and Bob have personal connections.
      Hugo and Katrina are pretty self-explanatory, being 2 of the biggest impact systems.

      For myself, I can recall particular thunderstorms as memorable because of direct experience, and some of them were not even “severe” storms, just memorable for whatever reason, like the 5 lightning strikes on the neighborhood on the morning of June 29 1982, from a non-severe warm front storm. 🙂

      2005 was indeed a slow start followed by insanity. I was just talking about this with a colleague this week. I do feel that this season will end up active overall, it just may not be as active as it may have been (pending ENSO status, which of course is not the only driving factor). Either way, it’s always interesting to monitor.

      1. Thank you TK. GREAT comment. It was a fun trip down memory lane. Gloria also left an impression. It was the first I experienced with Mac and two of our three children. Hugo of course had a huge connection as Mac’s parents retired in Mt Pleasant….the first community after isle of palms….to be hit. And his dear aunt and uncle lived in charlotte and experienced its devastation even that far inland

        Katrina was the one without personal impact except I have a vivid memory of both tracking the evac with Mac’s dad and seeing that it was poorly handled and then watching as the Levi’s gave way and calling Mac at work with tears knowing how devastating that was.

        1. Interestingly, Mac’s parents were at their daughters in Spokane when Hugo hit. Then the family came here for a reunion. His brother and family lived in Oakland at the time so were with us when the earthquake occurred in 1989.

          1. That’s right. You have mentioned the family-related Hugo part before, so that makes even more sense now.

            1. Sorry. Got distracted. I was telling oldest grand about your five lightning strikes just in your neighborhood back In 1982 Amazing

  15. A quick commentary on medium range models as they relate to my outlook beyond the weekend…

    If you’ve read my discussion (and SAK’s weekend outlook), there has been the potential for t-storms Monday discussed, not in detail yet, because it’s too far away to go into grand detail – can start that tomorrow.

    First off the NAM (12km) version does hint at something.
    Medium range guidance… GFS is more aggressive on its 12z run with t-storm potential. Unfortunately, a recent upgrade to the Canadian model from what I can tell has left it forecasting “too much” rain, in terms of how easily it will rain. It’s early-on, and we’ll see with a greater sample size how this model performs, but I have my worries about the upgrade being a step back. We’ll see what the upcoming Euro does for the Monday event. It has been keeping it held back and later, which was what I indicated in my discussion today, but with convective activity, and predicting it, who knows?

      1. The muggies don’t really reduce until later tonight, and then only modestly.

        A few showers are left to pass by (hit and miss). One swath of moderate to heavy showers remains for the South Coast but that’ll be outta there by 2 p.m. or so.

        All that’s left after this are isolated t-storms. Some, with the help of mountains, are popping up in southwestern NH. I don’t think these make a great deal of progress eastward though, and I think the extreme majority of the region, after the current activity is gone, remains rain-free from here on through the weekend.

  17. I’m mugged out.

    I’m trying to imagine being an early career U.S. diplomat being shipped from one constantly muggy spot to another. I don’t think I’d survive. I’d like the being a diplomat part (I seriously contemplated this career 40 years ago). And it would be nice to explore other parts of the world and interact with locals. But to be in, say, Manila, Mumbai, Accra, Ho Chi Minh City, etc … for extended periods of time, there’s no way I could take it.

  19. If I’m reading the radar correctly some serious and heavy rain is about to commence over Martha’s Vineyard, Elizabeth Islands and that area.

  20. Thanks TK

    Down and out with the Rona and it’s kicking my butt this time. My youngest got it as well. We knew exactly how, kid on the plane in the row behind us was sick as can be. I am sure he had it, the way he sounded and he looked.

  21. The showers have taken a little longer to exit the Cape Cod and Islands area mainly because of the slowness of the boundary.

    The rest of the forecast has worked out just fine today.

    The isolated activity expected later in the day is verifying so far in the form of one isolated thunderstorm in southwestern New Hampshire aka the far northwestern portion of the WHW forecast area.

    There may be one or two more that pop up in the next hour or so but these are largely diurnally driven so they should fade with the setting sun.

    There is a slightly more organized cluster of storms further north in New Hampshire moving into Maine that had mountain support in its development.

    1. I saw that. Very sad. I used to love his sweating to the oldies program. And Dr Ruth. Teds younger daughter, Claudia, passed away yesterday. Or maybe day before

    1. I saw that. Wasn’t sure if it happened when he was pulled down behind the podium or was grazed. The shooter is dead and I’m
      Hearing one attended may have died

  26. Biden’s comment was respectful. He called for unity. My hope is both candidates will use this to unite

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