Sunday July 14 2024 Forecast (8:32AM)

42 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

High pressure brings lower humidity but still very warm to hot weather today, but despite it being quite warm, you’ll notice the difference between the clammy / muggy feel yesterday and the less heavy air in place today. High pressure slips offshore and resumes the job of heat and humidity pump Monday through Wednesday, with many areas seeing 3-days of 90+ for high temps (some areas that hit 90 today can have a 4-day heatwave). Dew points will also become oppressive again with 70+ for most of the region and just a chance we can experience some local or regional down sloping a couple of the days to reduce dew points below 70 in some areas. Our thunderstorm chances will be variable, with Monday’s opportunity seeming to be confined to late-day and mostly west of I-95 as a weak disturbance approaches, but needing solar heating to trigger storms. Any that do form can be strong to severe, but I’m not expecting significant coverage of such activity. Watch for any bigger storms to try to survive closer to the coast but probably lose the battle to the loss of solar heating in the evening. Tuesday’s threat looks like air mass / orographic pop-up storms favoring southwestern NH and central MA, with isolated coverage. Wednesday’s threat is the most formidable, associated with the approach of a cold front, and brings a better shot at widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, favoring the afternoon and evening hours from west to east. This is forecast day 4 as it stands on today’s update, so I can’t go into any more detail than that at this point. Thursday appears that it will be a transition day, with a slower-moving front. We can still see some showers and thunderstorms around for part of the day, favoring southern and eastern areas and favoring the first half of the day, while we see the arrival of a Canadian air mass from the northwest. The details of this day also need to be fine-tuned as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Patchy fog/stratus interior lower elevations and parts of South Coast until mid morning, otherwise abundant sun. Highs 86-93 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew points reduce to the middle to lower 60s. Wind W to NW up to 10 MPH, but local coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: A clear sky, but ground fog patches form in interior lower elevations. Lows 62-69, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W to SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early fog patches dissipate, sun dominates, then clouds appear later in the day. Potential thunderstorms late-day favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 South Coast. Dew point rises to upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 90-97 except 83-90 South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Potential afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the morning-midday time-frame and southern/eastern areas (eastern MA, RI, eastern CT). Highs 80-87. Dew point lowering into/through 60s. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

July 19-20 are expected to be fair weather, seasonably warm, low humidity days with Canadian air and high pressure in control. High pressure slides back offshore and we build some heat and humidity back during the July 21-23 period, along with some increase and the shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

Typical fairly weak westerly flow pattern overall brings some changing temperatures, probably a reduction of humidity before it returns, some heat, but no long heatwave, and a few shower / thunderstorm chances. Late July in New England.

42 thoughts on “Sunday July 14 2024 Forecast (8:32AM)”

  2. Good mornong and thank you TK

    Made 93 yesterday sfter the rrain with dp to 75.

    Overnight low of 72.

    Currently 79.

    Ocean temp: 61 3 (Boston buoy)
    73 (Block Island)

  5. Today in weather history…

    A brutal and long-lasting hot spell peaked on this date in 1954.
    37 states saw temperatures peak at 100 or higher.
    26 states saw temperatures peak at 105 or higher.
    10 states saw temperatures peak at 110 or higher.

    A list of the top temps for each state that broke 100…
    • 101° in Washington
    • 102° in Delaware, Louisiana and Minnesota
    • 103° in New Jersey and Wyoming
    • 104° in Idaho, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York and Pennsylvania
    • 105° in Alabama, Iowa, Maryland and South Carolina
    • 106° in Georgia and Utah
    • 107° in Colorado, Kentucky, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia West Virginia
    • 108° in North Carolina and South Dakota
    • 109° in Indiana
    • 110° in Nevada
    • 112° in Arizona and Texas
    • 114° in Nebraska
    • 115° in Arkansas and California
    • 117° in Illinois (a still-standing all time state record high)
    • 118° in Missouri and Oklahoma (all-time record for MO)
    • 120° in Kansas

    This link will bring you to a map of high temps for July 14 1954.

    https://scontent-bos5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/450726115_1073703130894420_2943339477609636644_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s640x640&_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=nceFVoDH-L4Q7kNvgG_w5_j&_nc_ht=scontent-bos5-1.xx&oh=00_AYAx52tpPxYJHINti1eEArZ9URG6JyFzExq4ftGpJbTOMQ&oe=6699ABA4

    1. Wow !!!

      For fun, I just looked at Wichita, KS climate data.

      It basically didn’t rain that summer.

      They saw under 1 inch of rain each month, June, July and August. July they rec’d 0.17 inch. Avg is close to 4”.

      The whole summer was brutally hot. July came in at 7.7F above avg, +10F of that was daytime high temp anomalies.

    2. It’s a gradual process …

      The boundary that went through last night was not a polar front really.

  11. Dew point still 70 at Logan and 72 at Norwood.

    However it is 64 at Bedford, so something is slowly happening,
    just NOT fast enough!!!

  12. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2024071400&fh=186&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2024071300&fh=210&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro. 00z today (1st one) 00z yesterday (2nd one) same time projection

    Comparing medium range.

    The models are struggling to determine, if we transition to WNW flow (warm, but dry, link 2) or if it’s WSW flow (warm, humid, link 1)

    Talking a 10F difference in dp

    I think they are stuggling with projecting the upcoming NAO

    If NAO ends up positive, the Bermuda high will poke further north and have more influence and link 1 will verify.

    If NAO ends up more neutral or negative, link 2 with WNW flow will verify because upper lows will make more progress southward in southern Canada.

  13. TK, thank you for posting information on the 1954 heatwave.

    My father was interested in weather. He gave me the bug, though I think that by the time I was in my 20s and talking about it every day he thought I was a bit obsessed.

    In any case, my father told me about the extreme heat you mention. And, as you said, it wasn’t just in 1954. My father had to interview for jobs as a doctor (resident). He took a bus from one hot spot, DC, to another, St. Louis. It was mid summer. There was no air conditioning on the bus (nor did many people have AC in their homes; only a few did). He said he saw several people pass out.

  15. “Dew points reduce to the middle to lower 60s.” -Me

    This process takes a good part of the day to happen.

  19. Thanks, TK!

    89/66 with 0.29″ in the bucket yesterday.

    Going with England in the Euros although the youth of Spain is impressive. England has not won a major football trophy in 58 years.

    Spain’s Lamine Yamal scored a “golazo” in the semis. Lamine turned 17 yesterday and learned last week that he had passed his high school exams. Ah, youth.

    I think Colombia will take tonight’s Copa America.

    Carlos Alcaraz, at age 21, won his second straight Wimbledon and his fourth Grand Slam.

    Pulling for the Sox this afternoon. A win would give them a 4-2 homestand and momentum heading into the All-Star Game.

    “That’s the sports report. Now, over to TK for the weather! I understand it’s going to be hot.” 🙂

    1. Thank you for the sports report! I’m currently without tv or WiFi, and I’m interested in all of it (plus the Tour de France and Scottish Open!).

    2. Speaking of weather reports ………..
      Last night I almost had to address the crowd at Salisbury Beach on the concert speakers, but thankfully the drummer of the band just relayed the message for me. A 10-minute downpour, then a resumption of all activities. 😉

  20. Jean,

    Here’s your SportsCenter update:

    Tadej Pogacar of Slovenia won Stage 15 and continues to be the leader of the Tour de France.

    In the Genesis Scottish Open, Adam Scott and Robert MacIntyre share the lead at -17 in the final round. MacIntyre is playing the 18th hole as I type and Scott finished today with a 67.

    In the bottom of the fourth, the Sox lead the Royals, 4-2, with two on and one out.

    Dah-dah-dum. Dah-dah-dum.

    🙂

  22. Throughout the European championship, in every game I watched the team I rooted for lost. Oh well.

  23. The dominance of Spain, France, Germany and Italy in both the Euros and World Cup is incredible. It’s been this way since I started following soccer in 1982. Sure, Argentina and Brazil have won 2 world cups each during that period. But besides those 2 it’s really been the FIGS quattro that have absolutely dominated.

  24. Watching the remnants of a Derecho – MCS that started in northwest Minnesota and walloped the Twin Cities last night around 10pm. Remnants now moving into Charleston West Virginia – they have always fascinated me the amount they travel. Charleston now under an airport weather warning for gusts to 60mph. Meanwhile the golf course my son works at on the border of Minneapolis was closed today because of so many downed trees. My sister in law will be without power until Tuesday. Looks like it’s dying out in West Virginia but maybe it makes it to the ocean

Comments are closed.