Tuesday July 16 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)

101 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

“The heat pump” aka the Bermuda high keeps on going for a couple more days, giving us hot and humid weather through Wednesday. Today’s thunderstorm threat sets up differently than yesterday’s, with fairly quiet weather through the afternoon – minimal chance of a pop-up storm – with most activity forming out in NY State and charging toward New England, but arriving as weakening showers and possible leftover thunderstorms in the WHW forecast area from west to east during the course of this evening. The speed of the activity will determine how far east it survives before dissipating, but in general many areas will end up seeing little or no activity, with the greatest chance of seeing “something” the further northwest you are in the region. We do it again tomorrow with storm threats, but this time the timing is potentially earlier with a pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front, so thunderstorm chances go up by mid afternoon and continue into evening / night from west to east. There are still details to be figured out for this, so check tomorrow’s update for sure! The front will be a little sluggish to make it all the way through the region, so Thursday morning carries a shower and potential thunderstorm chance at least near the South Coast up to the South Shore of MA into the morning, otherwise look for a transition day to cooler and less humid air from Canada. Friday and Saturday we’ll get the benefit of this air mass as high pressure dominates with seasonable and dry weather – perfect for summer outdoor activities (don’t forget your sun screen!).

TODAY: Any early fog patches dissipate. Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 90-97 except 83-90 South Coast and 76-83 Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm possible especially northwest of Boston. Partly to mostly clear overnight but patchy fog forms in lower elevations. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Potential afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the morning and the MA South Shore to South Coast. Highs 80-87. Dew point lowering into/through 60s. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny – few fair weather clouds. Highs 81-88, but a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, a bit cooler though in some coastal areas. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

High pressure slides offshore allowing an increase in humidity but still mainly fair weather early in the period. A nearby frontal boundary brings a better chance of showers / thunderstorms mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

A push of drier air early period then humidity returns again with a few showers / storms possible. No prolonged major heat.

101 thoughts on “Tuesday July 16 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  2. Thanks, TK!

    78/73 at 0800.

    Said a virtual hello to you and Mrs. OS yesterday as I drove through JP on the Jamaicaway and VFW Parkway on the way home from a medical appointment in Kenmore.

    Sincerely hope that Mrs. OS is doing okay in this weather.

  5. Well, if you came down the Jamaica Way you weren’t far from me. THe J-Way is perhaps 200 yards from my house. 🙂

    Hope all went well for you.

    Thank you for your thoughts. Mrs. OS is doing the best she can, considering.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Overnight low: 75

    Current temperature: 82 dp 69

    Ocean temp: 60.6 (Boston Buoy)

    I am amazed at how cool that water is. It is now July 16th.
    It was just as warm in Early June.

    Some funky ocean currents going on out there as it has been warmer than average and that water should have responded.
    I wonder if their temperature sensor might be wacked out??

    By Comparison the Buoy South of Block Island, Ri
    is at: 73.8 which seem more in line, if not a tad warmer than average.

    Something is up.

    1. Water temperature in Cape Cod is 71° not far from Boston Buoy. Probably constant up welling.

      1. I don’t think it is just that. It had been that cool on days with little wind. Something else is going on.

        Perhaps a little bit of extra Southern extent of the Labrador current?

      1. This is the third time this year an enhanced risk has been issued by the SPC for some part of the northeast.

  8. Thanks Tk

    Thanks for the well wishes on the last blog. I didn’t get a chance to reply.

    My son is doing much better. He’s back to camp today.
    Me on the other hand is will sick ha.

    Ace sorry to hear, we had a sick kid about 7-9 coughing, sneezing right behind our row. My wife looked at me and said one of us will have Covid in a week and here we are. Don’t fly if you are sick, stay another day if you have to should be a message.

    1. That disturbance overnight had ‘slightly’ less warm air behind it at 850 mb (18c ?) and its passing overhead now.

      All the models moderate that a couple degrees with the warmest 850 mb temps (20-21c) above us 2-5pm this afternoon.

      Potential for our high temp to occur slightly later than usual today, 4pm, as opposed to 2-3pm.

      15z (1st) vs 21z (2nd)

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2024071600&fh=15&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2024071600&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      1. OK, that sounds good. Thank you.

        FYI all this season our High temp here has occured
        between 4 and 6 PM. 🙂

        1. Ooops on my part. I suppose that’s the same time frame here too, for warmest part of the day 🙂

  15. Thanks, TK.

    Roadside sign spotted over the weekend:
    “Dear July, Whatever you’re baking outside, it’s done.”

  16. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024071612&fh=174&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024071612&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024071612&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    I am simply the messenger (yikes)

    The western Atlantic ridge projected, on this run, to build back west again the middle of next week, 500 mb heights 585-591 dm, 850 mb temps above 15C, one gets the idea …….

    This has to be the story of this warm season so far, the return of the west Atlantic ridge, MIA the past 2 summers, not only returning, but doing so in a big way !!

        2. No call, briefly there was a red box that usually indicates
          that a cell is tornado warned.

  27. Quick peak at the 18z HRRR for my area between 8-9 tomorrow night showing a nasty line of storms.

  28. 95/69

    I think 95 is the warmest temperature here in Taunton for 2024.

    Beautiful blue skies!!! No haze or smoke!

  32. That tornado in Upstate NY is the real deal. Seeing pictures of overturned cars and roofs blown off buildings in Rome NY. And the huge military plane at the entrance to Griffis AFB was moved off the cement pad it was on.

    Tornado warnings have been extended east to Fulton County and Sacandaga Lake, just north of where my mother lives. Saratoga would be next in line.

  33. Yet again, we did not make it to 90 degrees today, the high was 88. This is based on a neighbor’s weather station on Weather Underground. This station seems to be consistently the same as my home thermometer.

    Using the records of this weather station, we have’nt hit 90 yet this summer. The amazing thing is that we were over 90 degrees just 42 minutes before the summer solstice. The solstice was June 20 at 4:51 PM EDT. Here are the temperature readings from that day:
    https://ibb.co/wr1zKZX

    1. What is your altitude. Just curious. Thanks
      I think you may have provided it before, but I don’t remember

  34. Johnny Brusa
    @BrusaIII
    26m
    Severe damage to St Mary’s Church in Rome, NY from the tornado warned storm. #NYwx
    @JimTeskeNC9

    https://x.com/BrusaIII/status/1813303711281631698

    Jonathan Fossel
    @JonathanFossel
    13m
    @NWSBinghamton

    #nywx Rome Ny, B52 on display shifted off its base and spun around as a result of Tornado

    https://x.com/JonathanFossel/status/1813307290663153691

    Connor Dickerson
    @ConnordWX
    1h

    Looks like Rome, NY just took a direct hit from a tornado. Not at all what you wanna see. #nywx

    https://x.com/ConnordWX/status/1813294979948900703

    1. Yeah just saw confirmed tornado at Sacandaga Lake campground. Not sure if the tornado has remained on the ground the whole time or is making multiple touchdowns.

      Tornado warning now extended east to Lake George and Warrensburg. Looks like the cell is going to pass north of Saratoga.

  39. A friend and her husband are camping (in an rv) in the Quechee Woodstock area. It looks as if the warned area will travel just south of there. But the cell seems to be expanding a bit north. i know it’s an impossible question., but any thoughts on whether the line might make it into VT?

  40. I’m sorry to see what happened in Rome NY.

    Not surprised.

    It wasn’t a classic tight couplet, but there was a very noticeable notch in the heavy precip echo and there was a general couplet near Rome with strong winds. Sort of like Chicago area last night with quick spinups in multiple places along the approaching line.

    1. I have seen a few different posts now about the easterly wind component that held on (more than modeled) in the Mohawk Valley this afternoon and contributed to the development of rotation. The winds at Griffis AFB were out of the east right before the tornado hit.

  42. Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, south and central Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine as of 5:55.

  43. My friends are in Chester. It looks as if the northern part of the cell which is headed for Chester is is weakening. I hope

  48. Big globs of red heading this way according the radar. Just saw the severe storm warning alert. Will see if it holds!

      1. Thanks Vicki. They have 8:01 for Lunenburg and we are starting to hear the thunder at 7:53!

        1. Enjoy and please Be safe.

          A dear friend in North Conway just said the lightning is amazing up there

        2. They had the time right. It was pretty wild for a few minutes.

          The temperature really dropped quickly:
          7:58 PM: 82.1
          8:03 PM: 72.7
          8:09 PM: 70.9

  49. I had a good thunderstorm back on June 26th with those strong wind gusts lightning and thunder that last about 5-10 minutes. Maybe tomorrow night some action down my way.

  50. We had a beautiful shelf cloud roll in just before the wind picked up. Powers out. Lots of cloud to ground lightning, most of it occurred just to our north over Hollis and Nashua. Round two appears to be heading this way as I see more lightning to the west.

  54. poofarama!
    I knew
    there wasn’t a snow balls chance in hell of getting a storm here. watch extended too far East. Spc doesn’t inderstand our poof zone.

  55. Thanks TK! Between the marine layer, lack of sun, and what feels like a drier breeze, I am surprised the severe thunderstorm watch continues until 1am for the south coast.

    1. That atmosphere was still somewhat conducive if there was enough trigger. Turns out there wasn’t, but I agree with them having issued the watch until that time. It was just a watch, so it was not a bad move at all IMO.

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