DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)
“The heat pump” aka the Bermuda high keeps on going for a couple more days, giving us hot and humid weather through Wednesday. Today’s thunderstorm threat sets up differently than yesterday’s, with fairly quiet weather through the afternoon – minimal chance of a pop-up storm – with most activity forming out in NY State and charging toward New England, but arriving as weakening showers and possible leftover thunderstorms in the WHW forecast area from west to east during the course of this evening. The speed of the activity will determine how far east it survives before dissipating, but in general many areas will end up seeing little or no activity, with the greatest chance of seeing “something” the further northwest you are in the region. We do it again tomorrow with storm threats, but this time the timing is potentially earlier with a pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front, so thunderstorm chances go up by mid afternoon and continue into evening / night from west to east. There are still details to be figured out for this, so check tomorrow’s update for sure! The front will be a little sluggish to make it all the way through the region, so Thursday morning carries a shower and potential thunderstorm chance at least near the South Coast up to the South Shore of MA into the morning, otherwise look for a transition day to cooler and less humid air from Canada. Friday and Saturday we’ll get the benefit of this air mass as high pressure dominates with seasonable and dry weather – perfect for summer outdoor activities (don’t forget your sun screen!).
TODAY: Any early fog patches dissipate. Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 90-97 except 83-90 South Coast and 76-83 Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm possible especially northwest of Boston. Partly to mostly clear overnight but patchy fog forms in lower elevations. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Potential afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be stronger and variable around any storms.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH but can be stronger and variable around any storms.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the morning and the MA South Shore to South Coast. Highs 80-87. Dew point lowering into/through 60s. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny – few fair weather clouds. Highs 81-88, but a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, a bit cooler though in some coastal areas. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)
High pressure slides offshore allowing an increase in humidity but still mainly fair weather early in the period. A nearby frontal boundary brings a better chance of showers / thunderstorms mid to late period.
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)
A push of drier air early period then humidity returns again with a few showers / storms possible. No prolonged major heat.
Thanks Tk
Thanks, TK!
78/73 at 0800.
Said a virtual hello to you and Mrs. OS yesterday as I drove through JP on the Jamaicaway and VFW Parkway on the way home from a medical appointment in Kenmore.
Sincerely hope that Mrs. OS is doing okay in this weather.
Thanks TK. Counting the days till Thursday.
Thanks TK.
Well, if you came down the Jamaica Way you weren’t far from me. THe J-Way is perhaps 200 yards from my house. 🙂
Hope all went well for you.
Thank you for your thoughts. Mrs. OS is doing the best she can, considering.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Overnight low: 75
Current temperature: 82 dp 69
Ocean temp: 60.6 (Boston Buoy)
I am amazed at how cool that water is. It is now July 16th.
It was just as warm in Early June.
Some funky ocean currents going on out there as it has been warmer than average and that water should have responded.
I wonder if their temperature sensor might be wacked out??
By Comparison the Buoy South of Block Island, Ri
is at: 73.8 which seem more in line, if not a tad warmer than average.
Something is up.
Water temperature in Cape Cod is 71° not far from Boston Buoy. Probably constant up welling.
I don’t think it is just that. It had been that cool on days with little wind. Something else is going on.
Perhaps a little bit of extra Southern extent of the Labrador current?
Thanks TK
SPC Outlook today
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1.png?1721134843
SPC Outlook tomorrow
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2.png?1721109785
Tornado
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
Is it just I, or are tornado conditions more prevalent in the North East this season than normal??
This is the third time this year an enhanced risk has been issued by the SPC for some part of the northeast.
Thanks Tk
Thanks for the well wishes on the last blog. I didn’t get a chance to reply.
My son is doing much better. He’s back to camp today.
Me on the other hand is will sick ha.
Ace sorry to hear, we had a sick kid about 7-9 coughing, sneezing right behind our row. My wife looked at me and said one of us will have Covid in a week and here we are. Don’t fly if you are sick, stay another day if you have to should be a message.
Thank you, TK!
81/69 here. And the heat goes on. Sort of play on words may have been intended.
Not quite, but close enough
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZD8HKVKneI
Was going with this one. Forgot about yours 😉
https://youtu.be/slldMEPvUqA?si=aGJQWXFDnD1kaK7X
Thanks TK !
83, 70 now
Seems to be not rising all that fast. 🙂
that’s a good thing
That disturbance overnight had ‘slightly’ less warm air behind it at 850 mb (18c ?) and its passing overhead now.
All the models moderate that a couple degrees with the warmest 850 mb temps (20-21c) above us 2-5pm this afternoon.
Potential for our high temp to occur slightly later than usual today, 4pm, as opposed to 2-3pm.
15z (1st) vs 21z (2nd)
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2024071600&fh=15&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2024071600&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
OK, that sounds good. Thank you.
FYI all this season our High temp here has occured
between 4 and 6 PM. 🙂
Ooops on my part. I suppose that’s the same time frame here too, for warmest part of the day 🙂
I was just up on the roof at work in a shaded area & it felt nice , that was around 10am
This day in weather history goes back to1879 and a tornado in Pittsfield, MA that caught people off guard
https://x.com/NWSBoston/status/1813166695139184866
Wow and yikes. Thank you JJ
Thanks, TK.
Roadside sign spotted over the weekend:
“Dear July, Whatever you’re baking outside, it’s done.”
Excellent!!!!
Absolutely love this.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024071612&fh=174&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024071612&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024071612&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
I am simply the messenger (yikes)
The western Atlantic ridge projected, on this run, to build back west again the middle of next week, 500 mb heights 585-591 dm, 850 mb temps above 15C, one gets the idea …….
This has to be the story of this warm season so far, the return of the west Atlantic ridge, MIA the past 2 summers, not only returning, but doing so in a big way !!
Support from gdps
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=500wh&rh=2024071612&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=500wh&rh=2024071612&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Updated SPC Outlook for today. Boston now included in the slight risk category
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1.png?1721147466
Wind Percentages
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_WIND.png?1721147765
Thanks, TK.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBUF/standard
89, 71
Still less hot than expected, even if it does rise some more.
90, 72
Some juicy storms in NY State already.
Here is a little more Eastward view than what Tom had
posted ealier
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBGM/standard
Is that a tornado warning I see?
If it was, it is gone now.
https://weather.us/radar-us/7d62919cb3ea838eb3a08763c34ecb5e/velocity/KTYX_20240716-191128z.html
Good call, there should be one.
Credit to weather.us/radar
And that bigger circulation ENE of Watertown is noticeable. Quite a supercell.
Quite a now echo.
or BOW
No call, briefly there was a red box that usually indicates
that a cell is tornado warned.
There was a tornado warning
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BTV&wwa=tornado%20warning
The above was from Burlington
Actually the Binghamton NWS office issued it.
92, 70 here
test
I feel sandwiched in between two severe thunderstorm watches where I am in CT
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0548.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0547.html
That’s becauseuse you are!!! 🙂
Perhaps another will be added?
Quick peak at the 18z HRRR for my area between 8-9 tomorrow night showing a nasty line of storms.
95/69
I think 95 is the warmest temperature here in Taunton for 2024.
Beautiful blue skies!!! No haze or smoke!
I was looking up also. Amazing how clear the sky is
18z HRRR has storms survive to Boston Later this evening around 10is or so.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024071618&fh=8&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Another tornado warning in NY among the t storm warnings.
Over Stratford
94/75. Our high temp was 96 yesterday. High dp was 79. Also yesterday.
That tornado in Upstate NY is the real deal. Seeing pictures of overturned cars and roofs blown off buildings in Rome NY. And the huge military plane at the entrance to Griffis AFB was moved off the cement pad it was on.
Tornado warnings have been extended east to Fulton County and Sacandaga Lake, just north of where my mother lives. Saratoga would be next in line.
Oh wow. Thanks Mark
Yet again, we did not make it to 90 degrees today, the high was 88. This is based on a neighbor’s weather station on Weather Underground. This station seems to be consistently the same as my home thermometer.
Using the records of this weather station, we have’nt hit 90 yet this summer. The amazing thing is that we were over 90 degrees just 42 minutes before the summer solstice. The solstice was June 20 at 4:51 PM EDT. Here are the temperature readings from that day:
https://ibb.co/wr1zKZX
What is your altitude. Just curious. Thanks
I think you may have provided it before, but I don’t remember
Only a little over 400′.
Johnny Brusa
@BrusaIII
26m
Severe damage to St Mary’s Church in Rome, NY from the tornado warned storm. #NYwx
@JimTeskeNC9
https://x.com/BrusaIII/status/1813303711281631698
Jonathan Fossel
@JonathanFossel
13m
@NWSBinghamton
#nywx Rome Ny, B52 on display shifted off its base and spun around as a result of Tornado
https://x.com/JonathanFossel/status/1813307290663153691
Connor Dickerson
@ConnordWX
1h
Looks like Rome, NY just took a direct hit from a tornado. Not at all what you wanna see. #nywx
https://x.com/ConnordWX/status/1813294979948900703
Kaitlyn Jesmonth
@wxkaitlynj
11m
Check out the wind direction right before the tornado hit Rome, NY:
Due East!
Was mentioning earlier how terrain channeling could play an increasingly important role…might have been the case here…
https://x.com/wxkaitlynj/status/1813308865317859701
Looks like wind gusted to 80 mph at Griffis AFB.
Awful. Thanks again Mark
Video from Rome NY where a possible tornado occurred.
https://x.com/nebojsav77/status/1813308078416371743
Pics from that possible tornado
https://x.com/nebojsav77/status/1813304275784589677
https://x.com/Sp3Ri7/status/1813301831398838691
Thank you also, JJ.
To the untrained eye. It looks as if that cell is maintaining its strength as it moves east
https://ibb.co/TrtP7z6
Yeah just saw confirmed tornado at Sacandaga Lake campground. Not sure if the tornado has remained on the ground the whole time or is making multiple touchdowns.
Tornado warning now extended east to Lake George and Warrensburg. Looks like the cell is going to pass north of Saratoga.
My goodness. Additional damage photos from downtown Rome:
Nemanja’WX
@nebojsav77
17m
Tornado damage in rome
#wx #tornado #nywx #pawx #sever
https://x.com/nebojsav77/status/1813310618675638281
Lake George webcam:
https://blue-lagoon.click2stream.com/
Good thing I dont see any boats on the lake.
A friend and her husband are camping (in an rv) in the Quechee Woodstock area. It looks as if the warned area will travel just south of there. But the cell seems to be expanding a bit north. i know it’s an impossible question., but any thoughts on whether the line might make it into VT?
Just saw the tornado warning dropped. Maybe that answers my question
Yeah it is weakening but still severe thunderstorm warnings issued into southern VT.
Thank you Mark.
I’m sorry to see what happened in Rome NY.
Not surprised.
It wasn’t a classic tight couplet, but there was a very noticeable notch in the heavy precip echo and there was a general couplet near Rome with strong winds. Sort of like Chicago area last night with quick spinups in multiple places along the approaching line.
I have seen a few different posts now about the easterly wind component that held on (more than modeled) in the Mohawk Valley this afternoon and contributed to the development of rotation. The winds at Griffis AFB were out of the east right before the tornado hit.
Interesting, thanks Mark !
Look at the size of the uprooted trees in this video…
https://x.com/BreakinNewz01/status/1813315034530906278
Complete carnage in Rome. Hopefully no one was injured or killed there.
I sure hope there were no injuries Also. Those trees are mammoth
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, south and central Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine as of 5:55.
My friends are in Chester. It looks as if the northern part of the cell which is headed for Chester is is weakening. I hope
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/ne/GEOCOLOR/20241982241_GOES16-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-2400×2400.jpg
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KAQW&hours=72
66 mph gust at North Adams airport
https://weather.us/radar-us/massachusetts/reflectivity/KBOX.html#play-0-12-5
That is quite a cell headed towards Keene, NH
Credit to weather.us/radar
Warned area just missing you again JJ. Sounds all too familiar. 🙁
Big globs of red heading this way according the radar. Just saw the severe storm warning alert. Will see if it holds!
Was just about to post this for Lunenburg, pepperill and all folks up that way.
https://ibb.co/sbj4yft
https://ibb.co/fkF5vQH
Thanks Vicki. They have 8:01 for Lunenburg and we are starting to hear the thunder at 7:53!
Enjoy and please Be safe.
A dear friend in North Conway just said the lightning is amazing up there
They had the time right. It was pretty wild for a few minutes.
The temperature really dropped quickly:
7:58 PM: 82.1
8:03 PM: 72.7
8:09 PM: 70.9
I had a good thunderstorm back on June 26th with those strong wind gusts lightning and thunder that last about 5-10 minutes. Maybe tomorrow night some action down my way.
awesome.
We had a beautiful shelf cloud roll in just before the wind picked up. Powers out. Lots of cloud to ground lightning, most of it occurred just to our north over Hollis and Nashua. Round two appears to be heading this way as I see more lightning to the west.
Crazy night.
Very dark sky. Warning in place here til 8:45 pm.
nasty storm coming in as we speak. Lots of lightning.
Quick downpour!
poofarama!
I knew
there wasn’t a snow balls chance in hell of getting a storm here. watch extended too far East. Spc doesn’t inderstand our poof zone.
Nada here also
Thanks TK! Between the marine layer, lack of sun, and what feels like a drier breeze, I am surprised the severe thunderstorm watch continues until 1am for the south coast.
That atmosphere was still somewhat conducive if there was enough trigger. Turns out there wasn’t, but I agree with them having issued the watch until that time. It was just a watch, so it was not a bad move at all IMO.
New weather post…