Wednesday July 17 2024 Forecast (7:31AM)

79 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

Another hot and humid day today as high pressure remains anchored offshore, but that anchor is going to be pulled up for readjustment shortly. We’ve a cold front approaching, and it brings another good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region later today and part of tonight. Some of the parameters today will be a little less favorable for severe storms than what we had last evening, but I can’t rule out a couple in the cluster or segments of storms that will form and move into the area. Overall, the trend will be for strongest storms to occur in the western reaches of our region, with a general weakening trend and lessening coverage trend as we see them head eastward, with a general window of 4PM to 10PM from west to east, though this may have to be adjusted a little on its front-end and back-end, pending the initial location of storm development. Overnight, the cold front moves through fairly quietly. Previously, I speculated we may see additional showers part of Thursday morning, but this may not be the case, with just some lingering morning cloudiness to deal with and a slower drop in the humidity – not a quick enter of crisp, dry air. So even without any showers, Thursday is still a transition day in terms of lowering dew points, which will be a process that takes place from northwest to southeast under a mix of sun and clouds. Canadian high pressure comes for a visit with fair, seasonable, low humidity weather Friday and Saturday, before it slides offshore Sunday and we see a slight up-tick in both temperature and humidity, but still quite nice! A weak cold front approaches later Sunday, but outside of a slight chance of a late-day or evening shower making it into northern areas, I don’t expect there will be much evidence of its presence, so we do have a really nice weekend coming up…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Potential thunderstorms central MA / southwestern NH by evening. Highs 88-95, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+ but can fall below 70 in some down-slope areas on lee sides of hills. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms progress eastward in clusters / segments but also diminish with time, then end most places except potentially lingering into overnight to the south of Boston. Areas of fog forming late evening / overnight especially South Coast region. Lows 70-77. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH, but can be strong and gusty for brief times around any thunderstorms.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with most clouds including areas of fog South Coast in the morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 80-87. Dew point lowering into and through the 60s from northwest to southeast. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog. Lows 58-65, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 50 to lower 60s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny – few fair weather clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest at the coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog develops. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, a bit cooler though in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Maybe an evening shower reaches southern NH. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Higher humidity returns next week but probably without a hot spell. Shower/thunderstorm chances are highest in the July 23-25 period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

A push of drier air early period then humidity returns again with a few showers / storms possible. No prolonged major heat indicated at this time.

79 thoughts on “Wednesday July 17 2024 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  1. I chased last evening and intercepted 3 thunderstorms.

    -Nashua NH (bow echo)
    -Lowell MA
    -Acton MA (weaker bow echo)

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 93 yesterday

    overnight low 75

    currently 77

    ocean temp 62.1 (boston buoy)

    Nothing here yesterday. not a drop.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Saw The Pretenders at Tanglewood last night. Just prior to the concert there was a ton of rain and a potent thunderstorm. The Berkshires are prone to these summer storms, much more so than the coastal plain.

    Chrissie Hynde is quite the rocker. I was expecting a more mellow version. She is 73 after all. So I thought we would hear more of the band’s signature ballads like 2,000 miles or Hymn to her. Well, despite the older audience (or perhaps because of it) she decided to take everyone on a journey back in time to the CBGB days of yore, The Rat (Rathskeller) in Boston, or the 100 Club in London. It was raucous, loud and more punk-infused than anything I could have imagined her doing at this point. But the amazing thing is she pulls it off. Age is just a number. What an indomitable spirit. A fiercely independent woman, who blazed a path for other female artists.

    3. I’m glad you enjoyed it. It’s amazing that I saw the Pretenders in about 1982 and Chrissie is still going strong.

      She was quite feisty back then, to say the least. There was an incident involving an audience member using a camera that really set her off (remember those days?). Then she went berserk when the audience’s reaction to her mention of the opening band was tepid. “Well, I think they’re great, so you can all just eat s***!”

      Those were good times!

  13. Sorry for taking so long to thank you, TK. I was interrupted by donating seven vials of blood. I need to remember not to schedule all my yearly dr appts at one time.

    Fascinating that you chases. Hoping you will be able to share photos.

  14. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024071712&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024071712&fh=198&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024071712&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Signal still showing in the medium range for the return of a stout western Atlantic ridge.

    Might be a different setup though with more cloud cover, more rain chances (my front lawn is now burnt) but with high humidity.

  15. Joshua, it must have been at least a half a year since you wrote your article on Flovent being discontinued. My take is that through negotiations with the powers that be that the cost was brought down from the $200 I was paying to $28, so it wasn’t worth continuing to produce. It’s been replaced by a similar inhaler that costs $210/month for my part D. I have bcbs The least expensive my pulmonologist can find is a generic for $65. Better but still ridiculous. He wisely suggested I ask cvs if good rx would lower the price. And it did. To $41. Between the pharmaceutical business and CVS you have to jump through hoops.

    Sorry. Rant over. But was thinking of Joshua as I spent a few hours on the phone.

    1. The SPC must have heard Eric Fisher last night.

      He seemed surprised they had far southeast mass in yesterday’s watch area.

    2. One thing to remember with the obs, unless there’s an observer there to augment them, the ASOS can’t see anything above 12000 feet. So, if it is completely overcast, but at 15000, the automated sensors will report CLR. I see this often at night when most of the ASOS are left to their own devices and high clouds start moving in.

  20. TK alludes to this in his forecast and discussion …. and it’s noticeable on the 12z runs, the dp drop tomorrow is gradual, if not at times slow.

    8pm tomorrow night, both GFS and euro still have moderate to high dps Boston, points south and east.

    1. They look to be traveling SW to NE so May well miss me yet again also. JJ might get some of them. Maybe

  24. Vicki, your story on the price of meds resonates. It’s a problem that affects many Americans. Believe it or not, it’s the one area where I think that whoever is President we’ll continue to see positive changes. Biden and Trump are not fans of pharma’s pricing policies or the pharmacy benefit managers who rip off independent pharmacies and patients.

    1. Thank you, Joshua. I noticed a dip in pricing with Biden but sure hope you are right about both

  25. Just got out of the ocean in Narragansett RI. Water temperature around 76°. Persistent south and southwest winds holding the warm water near the shore line.

  28. The one down in your area JJ could get here. Can you please give it a push in this direction. 🙂

    2. Oh I’m glad it wasn’t just me thinking it.

      Those little notches with quick inflows.

      They don’t last long and are continually reforming.

  31. I was talking to the pyro company and my friend who runs the Hampton events page and they are going to postpone the Wed fireworks show to Friday., I think definitely enough risk not to take the chance. Pyro company has to know by 4-ish, as they arrive with the product by 5, then have to make their way out to the launch zone, set up the racks which hold the launch tubes, then carefully set and wire the display (several hundred shells for a 12 min display with a solid finale). Too big a window of time for something to develop and move into the beach area from 5 to 9:45. Friday’s weather is pretty much a guarantee for perfection and no issues for set-up and show-time. 🙂

    2. Makes a whole lot of sense. Sounds very familiar. And is part of contract. You reminded me to message you to find out if you have names of other pyro companies …other than the one we use that is.

        1. One clap of thunder and an interesting sky where I was (which wasn’t home). It looked on radar as though a yellow patch went through very quickly at home.

  36. Per Taunton climate section, it did hit 90F at Logan today at 3:43pm.

    Day #8 this warm season with many more for inland locations thus far.

    2. Thank you. I will read. And I didn’t in any way mean they were. I just didn’t need to fill any of the high priced prescriptions when trump was in office

    3. I agree excellent article. Doubter Vicki hope Vance is allowed to keep these views and work toward them. Thank you, Joshua, for giving a ray of hope. As I’ve said, Medicare part D is the only failing of Medicare insurance

  38. Couple IFs …..

    If there’s ample afternoon sun and the NW wind doesn’t turn to a seabreeze, Logan might hit 90F tomorrow.

    Lowering humidity, downsloping NW wind and 850 mb temps near 15C during the afternoon could get it done. 00z HRRR hits the mark at 19z, 00z NAM is in the mid 80s, but I think it’s projected dew points are too high.

  40. Just about to head to sleep and have some fairly vivid lighting. I’d know where the system is if my internet worked

    1. I can see if over you. Absolutely amazing distant lightning show here so cannot imagine what you have. Enjoy and please be safe

Comments are closed.