Sunday July 21 2024 Forecast (7:35AM)

48 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)

A weak area of high pressure slips to our south today as a weak cold front drops down from northern New England. I’ve debated with my forecasting self all week whether or not this front will “do anything”, and I do think at this point I cannot rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm mainly over southern NH – maybe northern MA – later on today as it moves into the region, but for the most part, the extreme majority of the region will have a rain-free Sunday with moderate humidity and warm air. The leftover clouds over southeastern MA and RI this morning will exit later in the morning, otherwise we’ll see more sun with patchy clouds across the region today. The cold front moves by tonight and any showers that do pop up would die off with the loss of daytime heating, so a quiet night with just some patchy low elevation ground fog. Monday, a weak area of high pressure will sit overhead and allow the development of a sea breeze, which will take temperatures down a few notches for highs over today’s. Tuesday through midweek we find ourselves with a humid southwesterly air flow over the region, but a frontal boundary that sits mostly just to our south, keeping high heat out of the region this time despite higher dew points. But a series of disturbances moving through our region will bring episodic showers and thunderstorms during this period of time. It’s hard to time best shower threats even just a few days in advance, so this process will take place in daily updates as we get closer to and into that time frame. For now, just plan on unsettled weather and higher humidity.

TODAY: Many clouds start the day southeastern MA / RI, otherwise sunshine dominates with patchy clouds. Any early morning fog patches dissipate. Isolated late-day showers or thunderstorms possible southern NH and far northern MA. Highs 82-89, a touch cooler Cape Cod. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts possible later in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A couple showers possible mainly south of I-90 during the afternoon / early evening. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal locations. Dew point lower to middle 60s, rising to upper 60s South Coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds take over and patchy fog redevelops. Showers arrive overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60s too. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH evening shifting to SE to E overnight.

TUESDAY: Clouds dominate. Shower chances are highest morning / midday. Areas of fog. Highs 76-84, coolest coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms mainly late evening / overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers and areas of fog in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, may be mostly SE to E.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)

The humid and showery pattern continues to start the period before a front pushes through and drier air arrives for the July 27-28 weekend, which starts out warm/dry but may end up hotter and more humid, into early the following week before shower and thunderstorm chances return at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

The overall pattern supports typical mid summer moderate to at times high humidity and near to mostly above normal temperatures, with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, but not an excessively wet pattern.

48 thoughts on “Sunday July 21 2024 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 85 yesterday with dps in the upper 5s, but rising to lower 60s late PM and mid 60s later evening.

    Over night low 72

    Currently: 75 Dew point: 65

    Ocean temperature: 63 (Boston buoy)

  3. Tropics…

    Northern Hemisphere: Only 8 total named storms through July 18. Lowest number since 1969.

    Eastern Pacific: Only one named storm through July 16. Lowest since 1972 after having broken the record for the latest date before the first named storm.

    Just bringing you what most of the rest of media finds too boring to share. 😉

    1. The overall outlook is for it to get more active in the next few weeks, which is obviously expected due to the time of year, but also a bit more supportive for activity from a pattern standpoint. Since tropical cyclones are an essential part of the atmospheric circulation, we should see them. They have a job to do. This is why it’s fortunate we have the technology and ability to fairly accurately predict their strength, movement, and impact, so we can keep as many people safe as possible.

      The fact we build vulnerable things in their paths is just a part of our existence and reliance on those systems we’ve set up for ourselves. That may sound “cold and uncaring” but it’s not. It’s just truth.

  8. And now the most critical item in today’s forecast. It’s National ice Cream Day. As I understand it, vanilla is still the number one flavor and chocolate chip is fading the fastest. Chocolate syrup is the number one topping which surprised me. I thought it would be chocolate sprinkles (aka, jimmies). My flavor is mint chip.

    Obviously the above is weather related since weather has a direct and causal effect on ice cream sales.

    2. I love many kinds but my top 3 are vanilla, black raspberry, and whatever mood I’m in if it’s not one of the other 2. 😉

    4. Thank you, Longshot. Very important date indeed

      My forever favorite is Brighams vanilla and Brighams chocolate syrup. Both cannot be frozen or jarred but have to be served at the store. There is a distinct difference. But difficult to find since I am not sure there are any Brighams ice cream parlors remaining.

      So other than that my favorites are peppermint stick and pistachio

  13. The weather apps are going to make it look like it rains non-stop for days on end, but you folks know better. Even our unsettled spell upcoming is going to have many more rain-free hours than wet hours. 🙂

  15. As you know it wss a hurricane that sparked my interest in weather. I believe it was Carol. I went back on the NE list and see a number of hurricanes at the start of the alphabet in august and September.

    Carol 8/31/54 and Edna 9/11/54, Diane 8/29/55, Donna 9/12/60. Just a few. It has me wondering if there is any correlation between ocean temps in those years and now. And i absolutely understand that may be impossible to research. I’m just thinking out loud.

    1. Not sure what the ocean temperature were back then, but I would think that the ocean temperatures just South of New England would be more indicative than say Boston Buoy.

      For example, currently the buoy South of Block Island, RI
      is registering an ocean temperature of 74.1 degrees.
      The closer that is to 80, the more likely a hurricane approaching would maintain its intensity.

      Another buoy 30 miles South of Islip long ISland NY
      is at 73.9.

      2. Hmmmmm posted a reply and it’s gone.

        Thank you, JPD. I was wondering if ocean temps were in play but can’t imagine there is a record of those The 50s show a spike in air temperature. Nothing like we have now but still seems above normal for surrounding years. But, and I’m guessing, maybe that could have raised the ocean temp also.

        The C D E hurricanes were later in summer. I think I’ll see when first named storms were in those years.

  16. I just got out of the ocean at the south shore of RI. Feels about 76° 77° near the shore at low tide shallower water and southwest wind.

    1. One of my favorite campgrounds is Horseneck beach.

      Your description above has me thinking of it.

      Now that’s water I can get into.

    1. Just heard that. I think it is a good idea. Hope so anyway.

      Who will run? I prefer Gavin Newsom. Not sure Kamala could win. As long as whoever it is can BEAT Trump is the main point.
      This country could not survive 4 more years of that complete ass clown Trump!

      1. I’ve been torn. I know the reasons it will/may not work. But he was compromised enough that I don’t think he could win. I give him tremendous credit for making a decision where he put the country first. I hope

        I would not choose Harris. But we will see.

          1. Consensus says Kamala.

            VP?

            Some talk of all female ticket.

            Kamala and Gretchen Gretchen Whitmer
            That would be something.

            We shall see.

            The traditional Republican party no longer exists
            and has been replaced by MAGA Republicans, nothing short of fascists and Russian agents. When we had a real 2 party system, it was healthy. Simply NOT so any more.

  19. Logan was 81/82 all morning.

    Shot up to 88F when the wind went WNW

    Now has fallen sharply to 73F with an E wind.

  20. I just read that many Republicans are calling on Biden to go one step further and resign from office altogether. Hope it doesn’t come down to that, unless his health REALLY deteriorates.

    Harris poll numbers at 32%. Not good to say the least. An election landslide for Trump in the making?

    1. Hope not and I do NOT think so.

      Trump is NOT winning this election. The people of this country will come to their senses. They can’t elect that illiterate buffon!!
      Not to mention a fascist pig!!

    2. Have been steeped in the Republican Party from the time I could walk, I can trace the move right. You are correct, this is not the Republican pasty as it once was. Although I’m not a fan of the party of Reagan. I kind of like the party of Ike. Until today I was certain trump would win. I am not quite as certain. I was correct in the last two elections, including knowing in spring of 2016 that trump would win.

      If you have not heard Van Jones comments, I hope you can find them. A mutual friend messaged me that he was speaking and I’m still teary. They were magnificent

      1. That was intended to be a reply to Joshua. And Joshua, I absolutely love your first sentence.

    3. If there is a time in this country to show respect, it is now. Biden put his country first. I can say for fact that is a rare trait in this election. If he is facing cognitive decline,,,and we do not know that he is…..I’d bet a good number of us have had family members face the same.. Could we just once show respect.

  21. There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.

    We are at that point in American history, folks. In just one short week we’ve gone from an assassination attempt (that sadly killed a person and critically injured 2 others), to a Republican National Convention that was so far removed from what was Reagan’s Party that it didn’t have a single speaker representing that brand of Republicanism and nominated a VP who shares nothing in common with the old GOP, to President Biden stepping aside and likely to be followed by the nomination of the first black woman as candidate from a major political party.

    Needless to say, U.S. politics aren’t dull. Sometimes I wish they were a little duller.

    I still think the Dems will lose. But they have a fighter’s chance. And it won’t be the wipe-out it could have been with Biden at the helm. I no longer think Virginia, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, New Jersey and New York are in play, for example. Harris at the top of the ticket will secure these states, because younger voters (<40) will actually turn out. This will also help down ballot to oust House Reps like Boebert.

    To win the presidency, however, Harris would have to at least capture Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I don't think she will. This is where perhaps the Vance choice is a strategically sound one for Trump. I had overlooked this.

    A lot can happen, though. A Harris/Whitmer all female ticket would be a possibility or perhaps Harris/Waltz (he is from Minnesota) or Harris/Buttigieg.

    My duo would be Raimondo/Buttegieg, but that ain't happening.

    1. You had better be wrong about the Dems loosing.
      This country will be in the shitter for good if Trump wins.
      We will have NO country!!!

      1. JP Dave, if my political predictions are anything like my weather predictions then I’ll be very wrong. The only problem is that I know more about politics than weather. It’s because I have to as a healthcare policy analyst AND it’s something I’ve followed with close interest since I was a little boy. I’ve done the same with weather but not like politics. When I was 7 I was transfixed by Nixon’s visit to China. I think my parents thought it was a little weird when I kept asking them to turn on the old Magnavox so I could see Mao, Nixon, Kissinger and Chou Enlai. I was a strange kid.

        1. Sounds very familiar.

          Heather Cox Richardson will be speaking soon. She hinted at Biden’s timing might have been intentional

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