Monday July 22 2024 Forecast (6:52AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 22-26)

This 5-day period will be unsettled with several shower and thunderstorm opportunities. First a weak warm front or “dew point boundary” lifts across the region today and will be a focal point for a few showers and storms that pop up this afternoon, mainly near to a little north of I-90 in MA. Many areas will see nothing, but those that do can experience a heavy downpour. This dissipates this evening but another frontal boundary sitting near the South Coast will be the track for a low pressure area moving along it overnight and early Tuesday, bringing fairly widespread showers to the region. This exits fairly early in the day Tuesday, and if an additional shower or thunderstorm pops up as the sun tries to break out at times, it will probably take place in the hills to the west, maybe even west of the WHW forecast area altogether. The next wave of low pressure comes along during the morning and midday hours of Wednesday when showers are most likely again, but a drying trend should return during Wednesday afternoon. Thursday’s shower and thunderstorm threat comes from a cold front that will be pushed into and across New England as a disturbance tracks from the Great Lakes across northern New England and adjacent southern Canada. This is the day that has the greatest threat of stronger thunderstorms, but we’ll have to see how it ends up in terms of details based on a few more specifics to be brought into focus the next few days. This front moves offshore Friday, but some upper level energy moving through can still kick off a shower or thunderstorm sometime that day too.

TODAY: High clouds increase, filtering the sun more and more with time. Additionally, isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening mainly near to just north of I-90 in MA. Highs 78-85, coolest along the coast. Dew point ranging from lower 60s north of I-90 to upper 60s South Coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH, but a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Any isolated showers/storms in MA dissipate early, but clouds thicken and more widespread showers arrive from southwest to northeast late evening and overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH evening shifting to SE to E overnight.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely early to mid morning, along with areas of fog, then clouds break for sun at times with only a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the hills of southwestern NH to central MA. Highs 76-84, coolest coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy with a good chance of showers morning to midday, along with areas of fog. Clouds break for sun at times later in the day. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly SE to E.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 79-86. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)

Dry, warm to hot, and moderately humid weather expected for the July 27-28 weekend as high pressure builds in. Warm to hot, humid weather with a couple episodes of showers and thunderstorms in the July 29-31 period with high pressure offshore and a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest along with a southwesterly air flow over the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)

The pattern that ends July will also begin August with a general southwesterly flow, moderate to high humidity, and occasional but limited shower and thunderstorm chances.

27 thoughts on “Monday July 22 2024 Forecast (6:52AM)”

  8. Rain showers would be welcome at this point. Where I am – in Boston – we’ve had very little precipitation this month. I realize that some parts of WHW coverage area have had more rain.

    It’s quite dry. Not atypical at all for the time of year, but the grass is turning brown and the vegetation looks a bit parched.

  9. Decent article on why Covid spreads well in summer and also how winter weather drives uptick in seasonal viruses like influenza. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-rates-are-rising-again-why-does-sars-cov-2-spread-so-well-in-the/

    I had 2 issues with the article: First an obvious one, the piece doesn’t describe how much more transmissible Covid is than flu and rhinoviruses, too. Coronavirus mutates extraordinarily well. Much better than any cold virus we’ve ever seen, and way better than influenza. Second, the article is too U.S.-centric. It focuses on how air conditioning can contribute to spread. And while that may be true it doesn’t explain how in countries in Europe with MUCH less air conditioning we see very similar rates of transmission.

  10. Boston buoy up to 66 degrees. You folks up there can almost go for a swim.
    I was in Narragansett yesterday water temperature was around 75-76 degrees near shore and low tide and a south wind.
    Yesterday at the beach was as near perfect as it could be.

  12. Yes, the dp the last 3-4 days now has not been 70 – 75, I do feel like the one day with true relief was last Friday. Had the windows opened all day, AC turned off.

    Other than that, it’s been borderline enough to have the AC on at some points, whether it’s been a temp in the mid-upper 80s or a dp in the low-mid 60s

    Not miserable or oppressive, but still needing, at least for me, some AC at times, to help out.

  14. 87 and don’t know the dp. Just returned from a picnic with a friend. The farm in Sutton I often mention has picnic tables outside under a covering. It is also close to the highest point in town. It was absolutely lovely sitting out and just chatting

    1. Actually a couple dark tall cumulus in eastern Pembroke, one of which is starting to release rain drops.

  16. Severe Weather: Environment is also favorable for a short-lived
    tornado early Tue morning near Cape Cod and Islands (and waterspouts
    over south coastal waters). High-res models show plenty of
    instability and shear in lowest levels with 0-3km CAPE well over 100
    J/kg, 0-500m SRH near 200 m2s2, and LCLs down to 500m. These
    parameters are well within the values that we often see with
    tornadoes in southern New England. Some question as to whether or
    not enough buoyancy will be present to sustain updrafts so it`s not
    a certainty, and HREF keeps higher updraft helicity values well
    south of New England, but it`s certainly something to keep an eye on
    from roughly 5 AM to 9 AM Tue.

    Credit to Norton NWS afternoon discussion

    1. This will be a very limited area for a very short time, which is definitely not a bad thing. 🙂

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