Tuesday July 23 2024 Forecast (7:08AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)

A frontal boundary sitting near the New England South Coast between a trough of low pressure in the Great Lakes and a ridge of high pressure southeast of New England will be the focus for a couple waves of low pressure moving by the region today and Wednesday. The timing of the two main waves is early today and early Wednesday. The concentration of most of the shower activity is north and west early today and southeast early Wednesday, but there can be some pop-up showers and possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon anywhere in the region, but a couple isolated pop up showers Wednesday during the day, which will be a mainly rain-free day otherwise across a good portion of the region. A stronger cold front will sweep across the region Thursday as the Great Lakes trough slides to the east and through New England. This front can kick off a few more showers and thunderstorms that day, with a few stronger storms possible. Drier, seasonably warm weather arrives late this week as high pressure builds in behind that system.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy morning with scattered showers including a few downpours. Partial sun at times afternoon with an additional shower possible along with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms popping up. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Best chance of showers comes during the morning favoring areas from the I-95 and I-90 belts east and south, with only a few isolated showers possible during the afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly SE to E.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to 60 or lower. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60 or lower. Wind NW to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

High pressure is expected to dominate both at the surface and aloft with fair weather and very warm to hot, more humid conditions July 28-31. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

A couple episodes where showers and thunderstorms can occur, but the overall pattern will be rain-free and seasonably warm / moderately humid with a westerly flow aloft and high pressure in control much of the time.

44 thoughts on “Tuesday July 23 2024 Forecast (7:08AM)”

  2. The tropical basins continue to be very quiet overall.
    The western North Pacific does have 2 active systems. Tropical Storm Prapiroon just had its final warning issued as it moves inland over North Vietnam. Typhoon Gaemi is expected to impact Taiwan in a couple days. Otherwise there are no other disturbances or areas of immediate development in that basin, anywhere and in the entire Indian Ocean. The central North Pacific is quiet. The eastern North Pacific houses 2 weak disturbances with no future, and the Atlantic is ZIPPO. Sarah dust plume and ENSO reluctant to head into La Nina are among the reasons for such a quiet start in the Atlantic, despite ONE powerhouse storm that only got as it did because it was able to stay south of the adverse conditions and maximize a very narrow strip of ideal conditions – like winning the weather lottery. A hundred or so miles further north and that never happens either. So a remarkably quiet tropics by typical standards as we head into late July. Of course the climatological peak of the tropical season is still many weeks in the future and a lot of time for a much more active pattern between now and late autumn.

    The quiet start is very notable, but again something you will NEVER hear mainstream media talk about because it doesn’t fit the dramatic narrative they have to drive on, so they will ignore all of that and find a couple of other things to dramatize that don’t really have much of an impact. Example: Some area will have a heavy thunderstorm with flash flooding and they’ll find every possible image and angle of the small area that flooded and portray it like it’s in a giant region. I’ve been onto this trick for decades, so they can’t fool me. 😉 But they do fool the general public quite easily as it turns out.

    1. Thank you for the detailed discussion.

      Last night Pete showed quite a graphic of the Saharan Dust plume. He further stated that the Atlantic tropics would remain quiet for another 2 weeks or so.

  3. Thanks, TK.

    The last 3 to 4 weeks has been a hit or miss period and mostly miss in terms of showers. It’s been a fairly remarkable stretch of dry, given all the rain we’d been having since June 2023. In months past, when there was a modest chance of rain it rained. Now when there’s a modest chance of rain it might but it probably won’t (at least where I am).

  4. In the blink of an eye the Red Sox boat is leaking badly. What’s the expression? Water seeks its level. I feel like this is what’s happening. Great first `half’ but a team that still lacks talent in key positions will ultimately be exposed. It’s only a 4 game losing streak, but it’s a telling one. The Sox have led in every game – often late – and come up short. Cora’s frustrated. He got tossed last night.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 83 yesterday

    Overnight 72

    Currently 73

    Ocean temp: 66.4 (Boston buoy)

  6. Thanks TK
    Cloudy start to the day as I am vacationing down in Virginia.
    Red Sox all of a sudden two back of the final wild card spot. I can’t speak for a Red Sox fan but I didn’t see this team competing for a wild card spot. I honestly thought this team was going to finish in last place this season.

  9. JJ, the Red Sox could very well wind up in last place. Talent-wise, they’re at the bottom of the AL East and overall they’re less talented than the Royals (their closest competitor in the wild card standings). I think Tampa Bay in the AL East will catch them, though I don’t think the Blue Jays will. Because of their grit and good coaching they were able to overcome adversity and deficiencies in talent. But that’s really hard to keep up over the long haul of a baseball season. We’ll see what happens, moving forward. I’d love to see them play like they did in June and the first part of July. But their pitching staff is gassed. Practically all of them have never pitched as many innings as they have to this point. Their line-up is so-so, especially without Casas and another power bat. And their defense is bad.

  11. Of the first 4 games post break, the Sox have had two games with 2 run leads in extra innings and the bullpen couldn’t hold them. Then in the 1st game, they gave up 4 runs in the bottom of the 8th to lose the lead.

    The 0-4 start is the bullpen. It’s beyond depleted and as mentioned above, the offense isn’t the type to be ahead consistently by a lot of runs late in the game. It’s an offense that has to have a bullpen that’s functioning effectively.

    Per Alex speier, 5 blown saves in the 1st 4 games since returning. Yes, the pen has blown multiple leads in some of the games.

  12. Well, as TK mentions in his medium and long range outlooks, it looks like a warm to sometimes hot pattern, to be expected for late July into the start of August.

    Best signal for an intense 500 mb ridge seems to be the inter mountain west and Rockies area with some bagginess or a weak trof to its east in our area.

    This is a trof of 585-588 dm heights, so the airmass underneath it is quite warm to occasionally hot, but not what they might endure under a monster ridge to the west.

  16. Speaking of missing tornadoes, another met got back to me a couple of days ago.

    “our tech is so much better now versus 30-50 years ago…..so we can see mesocyclones more easily than 50 years ago…… but….meso’s dont always go on to become tornadoes….but…if we can save 1 life isnt that worth it?…..it is in my eyes….hopefully we’ll get a better understanding of tornadogenesis in the coming years (esp with the advancement of AI)”

  20. Atlantic tropical update…

    No development, in fact no disturbances worth watching, for the remainder of the month.

    1. I suspect you have explained and apologize if so. I’ve been on and off so May have missed

      What significance does a late start to the season have. Is there a connection to past years that have been a late start

      Thanks, TK.

      1. There’s no real strong correlation about a late start or an early start with really anything.

        For example, 2005 got off to a late start and ended up as one of the most active seasons we’ve seen.

        The significant thing right now is that the dust plume is a little bit more prominent than anticipated in the change in ENSO it’s slower than anticipated, which means that this can have an impact into August in limiting activity.

        If this continues too long, then it starts to jeopardize the forecasts, which in this case would be good news since the forecasts were for a crazy busy season.

        1. Ah ha. Got it. I tried to find Pete’s comment that JPD mentioned and could not.

          Thank you, sir.

          Another question. West river in Uxbridge is drying significantly. I remember you being at west hill dam. Is it lack of rain and evaporation?? Or are you not familiar enough with the area which I absolutely understand

          1. I’m not too familiar with that area and how the dam is set up, as I have only been there one time, but regionally, the rainfall is a little bit down recently.

            The pond that I walk on a weekly basis is down about one foot.

  21. JPD or anyone looking for a good movie. I’m partway through the long game on Netflix and thoroughly enjoying it.

  23. What a man. What a couple. He’s been in hospice care for quite a while. But open care and not end of life. 100. Wow is right

      1. Sorry Vicki.

        The 2nd one in particular that loops, the wild fires have exploded in Canada and the ones in the lower left corner are getting fanned and giving off so much smoke.

        Most of central and western Canada has high altitude smoke, some thick and it’s seeped into the plains and intermountain west.

        1. Oh goodness. Please don’t be sorry. My iPad doesn’t seem to want to load a second photo. But now I see just what you mean. I know fires are natures way of cleaning. Up. But with man not helping, the fires up there are just heartbreaking

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