Saturday July 27 2024 Forecast (9:10AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

The last 5 days of July will feature a pretty nice weekend, then a return to higher humidity and somewhat unsettled weather. But read on, because that doesn’t mean that we’re going to have days of cloudy, wet weather either. Also, while July warmth will prevail, we’ll not have high heat. This weekend, high pressure is in general control, especially today with a hazy blue sky, some high altitude wildfire smoke (not too think) and some sky-dotting fair weather clouds popping up. It warms nicely, but the coast is cooler with a sea breeze, and humidity is fairly low today. The humidity up-ticks slightly, but unnoticed to all but the most sensitive, during Sunday. We’ll also see some increase in high and mid level clouds as the day goes on. This is in response to an offshore low pressure area to the southeast of New England. This system is going to be a minor pest, sending a couple bands of showers into the region mainly Sunday night into Monday, though during the day Monday, a left hook and weakening of low pressure to the south helps relax its grip on the region and we see more breaks in the clouds, some sun, but also the chance of some pop up showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance of these on Monday is over inland locations, and they would likely drift to the south around the circulation of the weakening low pressure area as it gets closer to the region. That system will continue to dissipate and by Tuesday and Wednesday we’ll find ourselves in a warm, humid south to southwest air flow with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms popping up, but most areas rain-free most of (if not all of) the day.

TODAY: Sun with thin high altitude smoke and a few fair weather clouds. Highs 79-86, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point around 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then clouds increase later. Showers reach Cape Cod later in the day. Highs 81-88, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes redeveloping.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A couple episodes of showers possible. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of showers and patchy fog, then variably cloudy with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring locations west of I-95. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind E shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Patchy fog. A possible shower. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of a shower. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

A shower or thunderstorm chance will be present early in the period before it decreases. Overall pattern favors slightly above normal temperatures and moderate to high humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

“Typical” August pattern, warm with moderate to high humidity, a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms possible but most times rain-free.

65 thoughts on “Saturday July 27 2024 Forecast (9:10AM)”

  2. Thank you TK.

    I’m at the top of Mt Cardigan. Temp 53 ; breezy; some haze. I don’t think the haze is from the fires bu not sure either.

    1. Very thin smoke up there today – the thicker plumes will be held away from the region. And the fires are far less extensive than last season, so the sources will not be as prolific either.

      Last season’s wildfires were aided by 2 main things…
      1) They occurred in areas that hadn’t had them for a while, so there was plenty of growth before the burn.
      2) We had an extremely stable pattern partly as a result of HT volcano. Where it was wet (here, for example), it stayed wet. Where it was dry, it stayed dry.

  6. With the less hot/much cooler night stretch we’ve had recently, here’s where the anomalies stand as of the end of July 26th

    Logan: +2.5F (4 of the last 5 days below avg temps)

    Hartford: +4.8F

    Providence: +1.5F (their daytime high is actually running -0.1F below avg, night: +3F)

    Worcester: +4.3F

    1. Inland, the first half of the month, when the dp was 70-75F, it really created major nighttime anomalies as it just couldn’t cool off at night as much as it usually does away from the coast.

      It’s the nighttime lows making inland anomalies larger than near the coast, from the 1st half of July.

      2. Also, as evident in the anomalies, Logan has had its fair share
        of sea breezes sometimes keeping high temperatures down.

        The difference between Logan and my location has been like night and day!!!!!

        1. I’m sure !

          I can’t remember from whom, maybe Eric ?, but I read a tweet weeks back when Logan had had 4 (90F) days and at that point, Jamaica Plain had 11.

          1. That seems a bit extreme. Wonder where the temperature was taken.

            There are so many trees in my neighborhood, that we loose a degree or 2 just to transpiration. That is a real thing that we haven’t really talked about.

            If a sensor is an area devoid of trees and vegetation, it will read higher than a sensor in a heavily treed area.
            That’s a fact.

            When i worked at Air Force Cambridge Research labs, the Mets working there taught me a lesson about
            transpiration. 🙂

            One hot day at out location it was only 92 while it was like 97 or 98 at Logan. We were only at a couple hundred feet elevation and I asked why such a difference. Answer: TRANSPIRATION

            Transpiration is the process of water movement through a plant and its evaporation from aerial parts, such as leaves, stems and flowers. It is a passive process that requires no energy expense by the plant. Transpiration also cools plants, changes osmotic pressure of cells, and enables mass flow of mineral nutrients.

              1. I’ll have to go down there. about a mile from my house.
                I think there many buildings there. I have to see how many trees. I am willing to bet my location will almost always come in lower.

                thank you

              2. Of course my equipment might not be as accurate.
                Mine is Davis Instruments and the outdoor temperature sensor is accurate to within +/ 0.5 F
                which is pretty decent, but perhaps not as accurate as a COOP reporting station.

                The sensor sits under a canopy of Maple trees. 🙂

    1. I was just going to post these. Saw them earlier, but got busy. 🙂

      It shall be interesting to watch for sure.

          1. This will be fun to watch. Of course, it is still possible that ALL 3 global models simply have this Wrong. 🙂

            We shall see.

            Let’s see IF they all have it after the 12Z runs 🙂

  8. There are already a lot of really irresponsible winter forecasts being posted on YouTube and other social media by NON-METS. Do not follow. Do not share. Do not pay attention. Do not give them audience. They continue to destroy the profession that people like myself and SAK and WxWatcher and JMA have worked so hard to be the best we can be at what we do.

    Just thought I’d toss this out here. Defend the profession. This is science vs. people playing weather forecaster. There is a HUGE, GIANT difference.

  9. In all seriousness TK, why get the weather and its explanations here at such a high level to then read something that is world’s less accurate or informative ….

    My guess is everyone here knows this IS the place to come 🙂 🙂 🙂

  11. I’m pretty sure Boston will reach 2/3 of the way through meteorological summer with 8 days of 90+.

    Ahead of last year’s total, but not racking them up much either…

    1. 15 days of 90+ at Lowell so far this year. Last year only had 10 for the entire year. 135-year average for the entire year is 14.3.

      Most in a year:

      46 – 1955
      45 – 1983
      42 – 1949

      Fewest in a year:
      0 – 1932
      1 – 1920
      2 – 1902/19271972

      1. Thanks for the info! I definitely remember 1983 for my most here in Woburn… The others were just a tad before my time. 😉

        Definitely been some ocean breezes holding the # down at Boston, compared to Lowell, as one would expect.

  13. Thanks, TK.

    In my humble view, predicting winter on July 27th is irresponsible. It’s hard enough to know what will happen on, say, August 2nd. So I indeed won’t amplify the winter predictions that may be out there.

    1. On one hand I understand the excitement of somebody who was a weather enthusiast, wanting to look ahead and anticipate. I’ve done the same thing for years, but what I have stopped short of doing is talking about it, irresponsibly, both before I had my degree, and even after.

      Early speculation with a little bit of scientific basis behind it is one thing, these people are just playing and putting out dramatic maps, because they like the reaction and social media gives a perfect opportunity to do that over and over.

      There is one particular fake outlet that has already issued the winter forecast four or five times since June.

      Currently, they have shifted focus to hype. A major tropical cyclone set to strike the East Coast a week or so.

      It is exactly these kinds of things which lead to people like myself and others like me getting messages for me from people asking about the hurricane that’s coming, because they don’t know how to sort out the information that they are bombarded with…

      Ugh.

  14. Imma plan a beach day Monday. Why? If you look at a weather app it looks like a crapfest.

    Nope.

    Band of showers rotates thru early morning. Quasi dry slot follows. Rain-free, partial sun, mild air, warmer water held at shore by onshore air flow, and the beach essentially empty (for a mid summer weekday) due to weather app forecasts. One time those are to my advantage. 😉

    Showers / storms pop up mid to late afternoon due to convergence west of I-95. Maybe I can chase those on the way home…

  15. Aaron Judge hit a long homerun at Fenway last night. It was an estimated 470 foot blast. BUT, it was not historic by any stretch of the imagination.

    I’ve seen and been to games when Mo Vaughn hit gigantic homeruns in the 1990s. One day he and Frank Thomas were locked in an epic battle for who can hit the longest homer. They didn’t estimate the distance of the blasts hit the day the way they do today. But surely Vaughn’s and Thomas’s traveled 470 feet.

    Moreover, I saw and was at games when Jim Rice hit mammoth blasts over everything, including the back wall of the bleachers. In the 1960s Killebrew hit some enormous shots that many who saw Rice’s homers 10 years later reminded them of Harman’s prowess.

    All goes to say there’s regency bias, just like there is when we report weather-related events.

    By the way, I don’t wish to downplay Judge’s strength or accomplishments. He’s a modern-day slugger a la Kingman (but Judge is a much better hitter), Killebrew, Rice, etc …

    1. Harmon, not Harman. Sorry about that. And “that day the way” and not “the day the way.”

    2. And then there is the just over 500 ft red chair. Not sure if it still stands as Fenway record thought.

    3. I once witnessed Mickey Mantle hit a prodigious homer over the back wall at Fenway to the right of the flag pole. That ball sailed out of the park! btw he was batting right handed for that plate appearance. a true great! loved watching him play!

  18. Impressive warmth coming this week to Labrador City, approaching 30C (86F). It happens, to be sure. Next month at this time Labrador could see its first frost.

  19. The Canadian Ensemble has 20 members – 2 show development of the tropical system a week from now. That’s 10%.

    The GFS Ensemble has 30 members – 1 shows development of the tropical system a week from now. That’s 3%.

    The ECMWF Ensemble has 50 members – approximately 15 show development of the tropical system a week from now. That’s 30%.

    So, right now, the odds of that system developing are probably about 10-15% based on the Ensembles, which is even lower than the 30% the NHC is giving it.

  20. West Nile virus has been found in mosquitoes in several Boston neighborhoods, a cluster, in fact, that encompasses JP, West Roxbury and Roslindale. No human cases yet. Insect repellent is a good idea, especially for those over 50.

    1. Thanks, Joshua. Means it is out this ways too. We treat for mosquitoes. As well as ticks. One of the dogs here had Lyme this year

  22. I’m seeing several magnolias bloom again. Happened last year, too. Does anyone know if this is normal? I hadn’t seen it before last year.

  23. Some game at the old ballyard. Back and forth. Bad pitching. Poor defense. But lots of runs and excitement.

    I know the Yankees have rules around things like facial hair and length of hair. I also know they wear the same road and home uniforms all the time. I actually REALLY like this. I don’t like all the different uniforms the Sox wear.

    But what’s odd is that many of the Yankee players look like they shaved JUST before the game started. I’m serious. They look that clean-shaven.

        1. i deed. part of my lawn is brow.m.

          we shall see. just looked at all models still all over the place varying from a tenth or 2vto well over an inch.

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