Monday July 29 2024 Forecast (7:45AM)

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COMMENTARY

Just about a week ago, our guidance would have most forecasters believing that the least chance of showers was today through Wednesday, followed by an increase in the chance for the first couple days of August. As it turns out, it’s somewhat opposite, but this is why we update forecasts frequently. Prediction of the future is possible, but far from error-free. I always preach about not being too specific too far in advance. We look at general patterns, then try to gradually pin down the details with time. Even sometimes your forecast for the next day, or even same-day, can fail. As a forecaster, you can only hope to get it mostly right more often than you don’t. That’s the science (and somewhat the art) of prediction.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Today will be the most unsettled / least sunny day of the next several days. Weakening surface low pressure passes just east of the region early today, while a small upper level low pressure area drifts northward across the area during the day. Most of the shower (and some thunderstorm) activity wheeled through from the southeast and east during the overnight hours, but widespread showers are still occurring early this morning over much of eastern CT and RI, with more scattered activity in southeastern MA, and just a few lingering sprinkles of rain moving westward over northeastern to north central MA and southern NH. During the process of both low pressure areas doing as described, the shower coverage will diminish and the clouds will start to show breaks in them as we move toward midday into afternoon. But this process will allow solar heating to help initiate more showers – mainly isolated to scattered – along with a few potential thunderstorms. So even though there is slight improvement set to take place, the low pressure areas will continue to keep it somewhat unsettled. Today will be on the cooler side, with high temps ranging from around 70 in some coastal areas to as high as 80 over areas away from the coast that see any appreciable sun. Any shower and thunderstorm activity wanes tonight, but before that happens, one more batch of formidable activity can come impact parts of the region. If you follow radar, you’ll be able to see a shifting trajectory of any showers during the day / evening. They start out with mostly a westward movement early this morning, but if you look at radar as of 7:30 a.m. you’ll note that there doesn’t appear to be much movement near the coast of RI. This is a reflection of the center of the upper low. The shower activity will respond to the circulation of this system as it lifts northward, so that by the end of the day the showers and storms that remain will be moving more from west to east. Once this system is done with us, high pressure off the US East Coast will become re-established, and we’ll be in a warm, humid southerly air flow from Tuesday through Friday. There will be a daily opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to develop, and right now Wednesday looks like the day with the highest coverage of activity, with the aid of a disturbance moving in from the west, with the least chance being Thursday as slightly drier air moves in behind that disturbance.

TODAY: Starting out overcast with patchy fog – numerous showers eastern CT / RI, scattered showers southeastern MA, isolated light showers elsewhere. Breaks in the clouds follow with partial sun at times, but additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with activity favoring locations west of I-95. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH, shifting to N then W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Patchy fog. A possible shower early. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind N shifting to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of a shower. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms more likely. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

Lower shower and thunderstorm chances August 3-4, higher again August 5-7 when we may see additional tropical moisture, or even some kind of tropical-origin low near or off the East Coast. Overall pattern is warm with frequently moderate to high humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

Similar pattern, warm, humid weather prevails. A few shower and thunderstorm chances.

42 thoughts on “Monday July 29 2024 Forecast (7:45AM)”

  6. You mean HUMPTY DUMPTY hasn’t congratulated him???????

    People in this country do NOT understand that this is exactly what they will get IF they are FOOLISH enough to vote
    the ORANGE MENACE back into office!!!!!!

      1. Even if one is a “normal” Republican, one simply cannot vote for this most DISTURBING Man!!

        This is not Republican vs Democrat, this is
        Democracy vs FASCISM!!!!

        Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/ FASH-iz-əm) is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement,[1][2][3] characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation or race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy.[2][3] Opposed to anarchism, democracy, pluralism, egalitarianism, liberalism, socialism, and Marxism,[4][5] fascism is placed on the far-right wing within the traditional left–right spectrum.[6][5][7]

  7. Deceiving satellite view yesterday / today. An inexperienced person (and I saw a few non-met-social media people post this) would thing this was a summer nor’easter, heavy rain, strong wind, etc.

    No.

    The surface low is small, weak, and mainly offshore with circulation.

    The “dramatic” look to the satellite loop is the upper low spinning ’round as it drifts north northwest.

    Not really a “big” storm at all.

      1. I did. It worked out well!
        A bit of drizzle, then a shower, then partial sun, then a few sprinkles. Mild, humid, but comfortable, light wind.

  10. In regards to the potential tropical system later this week and what the Euro does with it , I said this to TK last night:

    “This little system tonight got me thinking. This could be a bad omen for the summer. Trough in the Midwest/Appalachians, Bermuda High, above normal SSTs, and the wave train is getting going. Granted this is an upper-low, and not tropical, but its rather anomalous for late July. While I’m not buying the Euro yet, the fact that it’s trying to bring a tropical up the coast in early August is not unheard of. We have been known to get tropicals on the East Coast in bunches.”

  12. I didn’t make the connection to future tropical system potential along the East Coast, but I have been thinking how strange this particular pattern is compared to what’s been seen this summer.

    The western ridge completely went poof. It is trying to rebuild over Texas. The aforementioned upper low that developed southeast of us and is drifting overhead.

    I can’t help but think the vast amount of smoke from Canada and the western us wildfires, which is so widespread now, has reduced enough solar radiation to have some effect on the pattern.

    I throw that out there because if I recall correctly, the models several days ago didn’t really project what we are seeing today.

    Take away the expected amount of solar radiation (heat) and that has to affect the jet stream, especially if it’s a heat reduction repeated over several days up to a few weeks now that the smoke has been widespread.

    While some of the smoke is thin, some of it has been so thick.

  14. Wednesday : Severe weather threat is non-zero ??

    Not saying it’s strong or even moderate, but I don’t think it’s non-zero either.

    If I’m interpreting correctly, I see signs of 70F + dps, some instability, and potentially some slightly backing of wind with height and potentially some SSE sfc winds.

      1. Indeed. Just pointing out that it was still there in some form.
        Let’s see what the 12z run shows. 🙂

  18. TK and SAK, I hope you’re right and I’m wrong about the Sox.

    I just see some parallels with 2022 (they were torrid for a while; 20 and 6 in June, as part of a 32 and 14 stretch, I believe) and 2023 (hot periods in the 1st `half’).

    I’d like to see O’Neill and Jansen dealt for high-level prospects, which in turn in the off season could be traded for actual high-end relief and starting pitching. Other prospects can also be traded, the ones who are essentially redundant where there are too many men occupying one position. And then I’d like to see a push for real talent in the free agent market. They had multiple opportunities this year and blew it in my opinion.

    Treading water like they’re doing isn’t good in this market, even though, as TK says, this team can be entertaining.

      1. He’s had injury issues.

        I like this kind of pitcher. He has good stuff but needs to fine-tune it. I do have some faith in our new pitching coach. I don’t blame him for guys running out of gas at this point, or just not having enough horses in the stable due to a combination of injury and lack of depth. I think the coach did some really good work with some of the pitchers, including Houck.

  25. Wow, the northeast kingdom of VT got hit again, 4-7 inches of rain overnight.

    Was peeking on WCAX ch 3 Burlington, they are reporting road washouts in St Johnsbury, problems in Lyndon (again) and shelter in place requests.

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