Tuesday July 30 2024 Forecast (8:58AM)

56 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms exist the next several days, but only one day appears to present the chance for more widespread activity. We start with a warm, humid southerly air flow today, but high pressure in enough control that any shower and thunderstorm activity will be isolated. A disturbance swinging through from the west Wednesday brings more widespread activity and more cloud cover keeps the temperature a little lower. Behind this, slightly drier air arrives Thursday when I think the shower and thunderstorm chance will become absent. Increasing humidity and a more southwesterly flow returning during Friday does re-initiate the chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but not expecting much during the day with just isolated late-day activity. Currently, Saturday presents very warm, humid weather, with a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible – but fine tuning needed.

TODAY: Patchy fog and low clouds early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of a shower early. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms more likely. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91, except a bit cooler Cape Cod. Dew point drops to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late in the day. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

A trough from the west brings a better chance of showers and thunderstorms August 4 before activity diminishes again early to mid next week with only a couple isolated showers and storms possible a few times. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

Similar pattern, warm, humid weather prevails. A few shower and thunderstorm chances.

56 thoughts on “Tuesday July 30 2024 Forecast (8:58AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    Only made 73 yesterday

    Overnight low of 69

    Currently 80

    Ocean temp: 63.9 (Boston Buoy)

    1. The water was very tolerable at Hampton Beach yesterday after being quite cold for a while! The high temp there was 72, but with the humidity level up, that feels really nice at the water’s edge.

      I can’t say we had a ton of sun, only partial sun at times, but I actually have never been bothered by lots of clouds at the beach. We were there in all weather back in the early days, so every day felt like a beach day to me.

      I think too many people do themselves a disservice by being unsatisfied with anything that doesn’t fit some definition of “perfection”. IMO, any day at the beach is a good day. 🙂

      1. That’s the way I feel about fishing. Any day fishing is a good day weather any fish are caught or not.

        Views of nature are often thrilling as I have seen
        swans, turtles, Blue Herons, hawks, bald eagles, red-winged black birds, frogs, and an assortment of snakes including the most beautiful water snake I have ever seen that actually slithered across my sneakers. That was totally awesome!!!!!

            1. Whether you do or not, it’s up to you.

              Just remember:

              There WILL be weather today whether you like it or not!!

  3. (From yesterday, never got to post it…)

    From WGC

    On July 29 1930, the high temp at Holly Springs Mississippi was 115F, setting the all time record high for the state. And it wasn’t just one day. Holly Springs was above 100F an astounding 20 days in July 1930, with an average high temp of 101.1F! This was the beginning of a hot stretch of summers for the US, with HALF of the fifty states setting all time record high temperatures, still unbeaten, during the period 1930-1936.

  4. Thanks TK. What a difference in DP today when we opened the doors to head out. Very noticeable shift.

    Last week of 8 PM sunsets… booo

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Thank you for reminding the WHW audience that we’ve had warm/hot periods before that broke records. I often feel as if the media likes to throw out words like “unprecedented” to get more views and clicks.

    This is not to say that we’re not experiencing a period of global warming over the past three decades. I watched an excellent program the other day on the Gulf of Maine and the changes that have occurred during this period in the ecosystem. The humans impacted the most are of course the fishermen, lobstermen and those involved in the clam industry. Warming waters boost certain species but reduce others. And they impact the food chain, which in turn has effects on wildlife, including whales and other mammals and fish.

    1. It’s very important include all information. I despise the media’s sick habit of cherry picking and making everything seem extreme and unprecedented. Yes there have been some big events, and some things we haven’t observed before, but they do not know how to keep it in perspective. I’ve said it before and I’ll continue to say it, because it’s 100% truth, that it’s disrespectful to the science. I’m not wrong. There’s actually no debate on this.

    2. The northeast oceans are taking a huge beating. But other areas are as well. Our Matt has first hand knowledge

      We sure have had periods of excessive heat in our past. The difference now is it is now occurring yearly.

      I agree the media focus can be over the top. It has always been. But it seems you have to go to an extreme for folks to listen.

  9. Happy to see the Sox in the win column again.

    The scores of some of the games the Sox have played recently sound more like football than baseball. Last week there was the 20-7 loss and last night a 14-7 victory.

  13. In the “everything is relative” column: In the Netherlands they’re experiencing this week what they consider to be hot temperatures. Today it’s been 29C in some places (about 84F). It will cool down this week to the upper 70s. That is considered warm/hot over there. The public health authorities institute what they call “heat plans” whenever the temperature is in the 80s for consecutive days. It’s what our local authorities do when the temps are in the 90s.

    Notably, during warm periods the temperature at night almost always falls to 60F or below. It’s very rare over there to experience anything like what we often do (70s overnight). Our “tropical” evenings and nights are what surprise Dutch visitors the most, especially those who’ve been here during a cold winter. The Netherlands doesn’t get nearly as cold as we do, or nearly as hot. And dew points levels there rarely get into the 70s. Nor do they drop as low as ours in winter.

    1. Finally got a hot day in France after a cool start to the Olympics. But along with the 90+ heat came lower humidity than they’d been having. Well, it’s France, and it’s the Summer Olympics, and it’s not exactly been a hot summer in western Europe thus far.

  16. Thanks TK.

    It ended up being a very wet day here yesterday. We ended up with 2.00” of rain on the nose from the event as a whole, most of it falling in the AM. We are up to 5.4” of rain on the month of July and just shy of 40” on the year. A continued overall wet pattern, at least here in CT. I was surprised to hear some others talking about dry lawns last week.

    1. Wow!

      That is a BIG difference. You aren’t that far from Boston where we’ve gotten very little rain this month.

      40 inches through July (for you) is I believe what our part of the world normally gets for a year. It would be 43/45 inches, but I’m unsure.

      1. Yes that sounds about right. We are rapidly approaching our normal annual rainfall total…in early August.

  18. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G18&sector=pnw&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    I’ve been reading up on this wildfire.

    I believe it’s called the park fire.

    It’s currently the 6th largest wildfire in CA recorded history.

    They arrested a guy who they believe started it. If I recall correctly, his car overheated to the point of it being on fire underneath and they accuse him of driving it off the road and into a flammable area of brush or dried grass or something to that effect.

    Unfortunately, a ridge is going to build and it’s going to get very very hot and of course, be dry, so, going to be tough to continue to fight this one.

    1. So very sad. I saw a tweet from our friend WxWatcher a few days ago. I’m hoping he is not in that area. Also hoping all is well. We have not heard from him in a while.

  19. I should just listen to TK about the GFS and that would make watching it a lot less frustrating.

    GDPS, Icon, Euro consistently all take that Atlantic disturbance, if it ever evolves, off the East coast and then well southeast of New England.

    The GFS, into the Gulf and then meandering.

    But it’s not only that.

    Get out to 6-7 days out and it’s run to run consistency is deplorable.

    Where in the previous run, there is a ridge, high heights practically to New England, 12 hrs later it’s an impressive trof that would deliver a fall preview.

    It’s awful. I get that far out, there should be subtle differences but not full scale ridge vs trof differences with massive 500 mb height differences and massive 850 mb temp differences.

    I’m to the point where I think it would be better served not to run the thing beyond 72 hrs.

    1. Yup, part of my lawn is BROWN already!
      It has been pretty DRY around these pars.

      Rain to the South and rain to the North, but NOT much in between. 🙂

  21. Migraine afflicts me periodically. It’s connected to GI issues, according to my doctor. I don’t have it nearly as badly as TK sometimes does. Still, it’s a chronic issue.

    What I’ve noticed is that running outdoors helps. Yesterday was a relatively cool day, so I could run 5 miles and the headache dissipated. It came back a bit this morning. I ran 3 miles in the building heat (not pleasant) and it dissipated again. I don’t understand the physiology (maybe increased oxygen flow?), but I’ll take it as a win of sorts.

    1. Feel better Joshua. Mac and our youngest suffered from severe migraines. I went through several years but nowhere near as severe

  23. Unless we get a spike, it looks like we topped out at
    89 here with a dew point of 72. DP has since fallen off slightly to 68.

  25. Football scores continue for the Res Sox. And tonight not in a good way as Seattle leads 10-3.

    1. It’s time to give up on the Sox as far as postseason is concerned. Amazing that they made the run they did. Frankly I gave up on them as soon as the van pulled up in front of Fenway back in late winter. A team can’t expect to make a serious run if they make no moves during offseason. Savor the Celtics championship 2023-24! 🙂

  26. Early ideas based on observation of runs only…

    Recent upgrade to Canadian model was a failure.
    Recent upgrade to GFS model was an improvement.
    We will see how these shake out in the weeks ahead.

    Upgrade to ECMWF coming in October.

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