Wednesday July 31 2024 Forecast (8:26AM)

89 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Our pattern will be warm and humid from today through the weekend. Variations in weather will depend on the systems impacting the region. Today, weak low pressure moves from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada via northern New England at the St. Lawrence Valley. As this system passes by, our shower chance is higher today, with some scattered ones around, including some heavy downpours in some locations, mainly this morning through early afternoon, before there is a decrease in activity. Heavier thunderstorms can occur, but are not expected to be numerous. The trough trailing the passing low brings one more shot at a shower and slight chance of a thunderstorm later this evening / overnight before exiting. Slightly drier air takes the shower chance to nearly nil Thursday, but a re-spike in humidity aids its increase again on Friday afternoon. Similar conditions are expected for Saturday with the opportunity for pop up showers and thunderstorms, TBD by locations of boundaries and trigger points. This may have to do with sea breezes too. A slow-moving cold front enters New England on Sunday, increasing the chance and likely the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Fine-tuning of the weekend days can take place in the next few updates. Bottom line: Don’t cancel any outdoor plans you have for this weekend just yet.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with scattered showers, a few possible downpours, and a chance of a thunderstorm. Partly sunny mid afternoon on with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible late evening. Lows 65-72. Dew point falling to middle to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91, except a bit cooler Cape Cod. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late in the day. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 81-88, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

Lower humidity and mainly fair weather the first part of next week. Higher humidity and an increased shower chance the middle part of next week. Mostly fair / isolated showers or thunderstorms, humid late week. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

No strong indications for specifics, but more typical August weather, seasonably warm, often moderately humid, and a few shower and thunderstorm potentials.

89 thoughts on “Wednesday July 31 2024 Forecast (8:26AM)”

  1. A quick commentary on the VT rain.

    A set of circumstances that basically amounted to losing the weather lottery in a very small area.

    BEWARE: Media makes you think this was widespread. It was not. It was regional, and a fairly small region at that (2 of them, actually).

    Upper level low pressure areas in the summer time tend to create some surprises not “forecast” by the models. This was the case.

    What really happened: 2 areas of training thunderstorms that happened to develop RIGHT OVER the area that got hit last time, and happened to take place at the pivot point of the upper low.

    Was it a 500 year event? No. Absolutely not. It was what we call a weather event. Media jumps all over stuff like this to sensationalize. Have we had two 500 year events in a month? No, we have not. Yes, it is a rough event where it occurs, no doubt. But I’m going to make sure these things are put into proper perspective.

    Go either side of the 8 inch max rain amount just a short distance and you’re down to 1 inch or less. Yes. Training. It can create remarkable rainfall amounts. And in this case, with a pivot, they basically got the event “twice”. These types of things are more common than people think (unless you actually do this every day, then you know). But if one happens to occur in a populated area or in an area that happened, by chance, to have a recent one, it’s going to be portrayed far differently than all the other ones will. Ah, good ole media. 😉

      1. Heartbreaking whether weather or no. And one year following another massive flooding event.

      2. Here’s the thing that most people don’t understand: a 1-in-1000 year event means that there is a 0.1% chance of that event happening at any given time. It doesn’t mean that it’s something that hasn’t happened in 1000 years.

        It’s one reason why I hate that term, because expressing it as a probability is a better way to convey how rare it is, but that it could happen again at any time.

        1. I hate all those terms … 1 in 100, 1 in 500, 1 in 1000. They are basically bad ways to represent statistical chances.

  2. A commentary on weather apps and wondering why so many insist following them to the letter…

    There were several instances the last few days of people telling me that they heard today was going to “rain all day”. No. The lesson is not getting learned about weather apps. Not sure how much more hand holding I can do about this. Might just have to let people screw up their own plans if they want to continue to discount scientists. 😉 Sorta like that really nice afternoon at the beach I had Monday. The place was empty and it was really nice there.

    Technology is great. Critical thinking is suffering. 😉

  4. Boston nearly 2 inches to the negative on rainfall for July. They could use some there and in many parts of SNE.

  6. Increasing signal for cooler than normal weather across much of central and eastern Canada and some adjacent parts of the US heading into the first half of August…

      1. I don’t think it’ll be a full scale flip to a cool pattern this far south, but with cooler air not far away, we can tap it.

  7. I don’t think I’ve ever seen as many bike crashes as I have in the women’s triathlon in Paris. Lots of oil residue on those roads. The mix of asphalt with heavy white paint, cement, and cobble doesn’t help. Proceed with caution!

  8. You can always notice when I’m not working. I don’t shut up here. Get used to it. 😉

    Actually I’m going out to do my brother’s laundry at my work place now and go out to brunch with Nate.

    We have some big music news in just 4 days! 🙂

    Have a fab day!

      1. The only hint I can give you is “get your dramamine ready for the music video”. 😉

  11. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024073112&fh=32&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024073112&fh=32&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024073112&fh=32&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12z HRRR in synch with TK for tomorrow.

    W wind, enough to hold off the seabreeze at Logan. Lowering dps into the low 60s and simulating mostly sunny.

    It’s projecting 93F at 20z. I do feel like the HRRR temp simulation has been running a 1F, maybe even 2F too warm.

  12. Thanks, TK!

    There were some great comments about women’s rugby here yesterday. My friend, Bridget, and her sister were at USA match and saw the Americans receive their bronze medals! Bridget played rugby in college!

    83/73

  14. A memory of a flooding event in our area 10 years ago popped up on my FB feed this morning. I went back in the whw archives to find discussion. I didn’t find that yet but did find this link from one of our own who may also remember it. Well done and perfect ending too

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfGMYdalClU

      1. Exactly. And in the ten years since it was posted in here, we simply continue . Do you recall who posted it 😉

  15. Thanks, TK.

    The flooding events in Vermont have wreaked havoc. While they’re localized as TK mentions, my sister – who’s lived in Vermont for 20 years – says that it’s been quite a 2-year run in her neck of the woods. Last November she showed me the enormous damage created the storms last summer, just north of where she lives. Entire roads were washed away.

  17. I found a couple of other things from 10 years ago. Discussion of the Red Sox was one. About as favorable as it is now 😀 I don’t know how the Sox year started but I’ve had a long time theory.When they start off strong, they tend to run out of energy at the midway point. They were called the come back kids for a reason. Didn’t mean they can’t bounce back. Doesn’t mean it applies every year. It was a pattern at one point.

  19. Thanks TK! I am back in the area after our cruise to Bermuda from New Jersey last week to celebrate our 25th anniversary. I was amazed at how calm the seas were both to and from Bermuda. We arrived back on the South coast Sunday night during that little storm that packed quite a punch. The weather today feels like it did in Bermuda – I highly recommend Celebrity cruise lines – we took the Eclipse and it was outstanding!

  20. Sad news for US equestrian team. Marcus Orlob and his horse Jane were not allowed to complete their exercise. Jane reared as they entered the ring. A short while into their routine, the judges noticed blood on her leg. They are saying a scratch. But according to rules, the alternate horse cannot take Jane’s place because Jane and Marcus had started their routine.

    Unfair in my view as it effectively eliminates the entire us dressage team.

    Dressage is not my daughters discipline . But she taught and rode with Marcus’s wife Shannon who recognized Jane’s talent even though she was not an easy horse to train.

    Very sad

      1. Good thing I had this stuff in the forecast today. I guess it’s panning out. 😉

  24. This is one of my FAVORITE kinds of summer days.
    Downpour, sun, shower, sun, downpour, sun, super humid, nice breeze. I… looooooooovvvvvvvvvvvvvve it!!!! Wicked happy. 🙂
    Very nostalgic feel as we had so many days like this in the 1970s and 1980s that I can recall very specifically. 🙂

    1. It’s gross.

      I’m muttering swears every time I venture outside. I really am sick of it.

      I’m hoping for much lower dew points in England in 2 weeks time. I’ll be there from the 13th of August through the 27th. Watch, they’ll have the hottest and most humid mid to late August on record.

      1. I’m so different than the two of you. I’ve stood outside just to enjoy the feel of the air several times today already. 🙂

  26. Vicki, you make an interesting observation. While it certainly hasn’t happened every year there are tendencies in baseball – across generations of players – that are quirky. When I was growing up (1970s) the Red Sox were a perennial fast starter that often faded badly in the late season. Remember 1974, for example, or 1978, for that matter. 1977, too. This tendency continues to this day. Again, it’s not every year. But we saw it, for example, from 2000 through 2003. We’ve also seen it in recent years: 2021, 2022, 2023 and in my estimation, 2024.

    My father used to tell me about teams that tended to finish (much) better than they started. And it’s inter-generational, meaning across decades and obviously therefore different sets of players. Among others, the St. Louis Cardinals, Oakland A’s and New York Yankees.

    There are no ready-made explanations. My father used to blame it on poor managers. The Sox definitely have had their share of bad managers over many decades, especially from the 1930s through the 1970s. He thought very highly of managers in the Cardinal, Royal, Oriole, Yankee and Athletics organizations.

    But of course it doesn’t just come down to that. In baseball, relatively few games are won and lost by managers.

    2. Thanks Joshua. 2012….i think that was the year. Was a perfect example. And I absolutely understand that is just one year. That was the first year that caught my attention. I didn’t follow at all after 1970 except in conversations with Ted but they focused more on individual players that caught his attention.

  29. I love Olympics stories, like the one of how the USA badminton player, Zhang, got into the sport. She tried swimming, hated the water, looked up different sports, came across a picture of a shuttlecock for badminton, fell in love with it, became interested in the sport, learned it, got really good, and now she’s a contender for an Olympic medal. 🙂

    While I work on a project here after returning from doing my brother’s laundry, I have 3 screens on (badminton, diving, and beach volleyball). So fun to watch this and observe the spirit of the Olympic games. It makes me think that a peaceful world is possible, if only the right people had the right influence long enough. Ah, maybe someday…

    Competition should be in good hard work but in peace. Otherwise, we should all be on the same team. If only…

    1. The photo of north and South Koreans brought a huge smile and hope. The story of the us dressage team not so much. There is a back story to that. Fortunately, that is an exception but should never happen

    2. BTW, Zhang won her match, 22-20, 22-20, two identical scores, to win the match 2-0 (it’s a best of 3). She had a devastating achilles injury that knocked her out of the last Olympics, and now she’s advancing to the next round. Great stuff. 🙂

      1. The best part of the Olympics I think is the stories of heart. That can apply to most any singular sport but the Olympics bring them all together.

  30. We have about 2 more hours before most of the activity shuts down and just becomes isolated.

    Not really any beneficial rain across SNE today.

  31. Sox have 56 wins and 56 games to go. There is not set number of wins that will get any team to the divisional playoffs. The Mets won 78 games one year and made it and the Mariners won something like 92 games one year and did not.

    A 50-50 run out would get the Sox to 84 wins.I would like to see them win 90 games but it would be somewhat of a stretch, but not impossible.

    1. And yet there are people who have given up on them …. before July is over ….. I don’t get it. I’ll never get why so many people give up so early if their team doesn’t have a 100% winning record and win every game by shutout. And that’s not much of an exaggeration.

  32. Joshua….not sure if you have done a story on this. If so I apologize and would love a link to it as I enjoy your pieces.

    I have a health issue. I called my new pcp Monday first thing. They said they could see me in 10 days so go to urgent care. I was not pleased but has no choice. The urgent care dr was excellent. I didn’t realize till the end that she had seen the note from my pcp to go to UC and was not happy. She messaged my pcp and told her she absolutely needed to see me if not that day then the next.

    I thought this was an exception until my youngest has to call her sons pediatrician the same day and she was told to go to urgent care.

    Is our healthcare system so stretched that a pcp is becoming irrelevant.

    1. Best wishes on the health issue, and the system …

      My mom was told by the group that sent the nurses even after they “discharged her” in terms of regular home visits, she could still call for advice. Well, she called, and was told “we discharged you and can’t help. call your doctor.” Why did they bother to offer her advice?

      1. Thank you. And that is absolutely inexcusable.

        I tend to believe good things come from not so good experiences. Although in your mom’s case, I just see red.

        My exceptional pcp had to retire for medical reasons. I’m incredibly picky about my doctors and have not found a pcp I like. The one who sent me to urgent care was assigned to me by partners. Most good ones are not accepting new patients. But the UC dr helped me find one with excellent ratings and he accepted me yesterday.

        I’m a very happy camper

    2. Vicki, I have worked in a lot of businesses that are ancillary to healthcare and I have found that more and more you have to be an advocate for yourself or find an advocate. These days one has to be a proactive patient.

      I have a medical condition that after several years, I now have learned to manage on my own. Along the way, I felt I had to battle for appointments, demand certain specialists, and fight for certain medical tests.

      Sorry about the PCP but I am afraid it’s all-to-common! And it’s compounded by situations such as Steward Healthcare … a story that is a disgrace.

      I wish you good luck and hope all turns out okay!!

      1. Thank you, Longshot, for your kind and wise words.

        I agree re advocating. Mac’s Dana oncologist asked me at one point if I would be interested in an advocate position. I don’t think emotionally I could handle watching so many people struggling.

        My mom wayyyyyyy back was a fierce advocate and always has the best. I seem to have inherited that gene. But you are so right. As much as you needed to do your due diligence back I the day, it is an absolute necessity now.

        And steward healthcare. Beyond disgusting.

  33. Vicki, as a true baseball fanatic – baseball and hockey are my 2 favorites, and the others rank pretty far down the list, even though I do like them, too – I think that the quality and depth of pitching may explain late blooming teams, if you will, better than anything else. The Baltimore Orioles of the late 60s and early 70s had a terrific starting staff. You may recall the names of Cuellar, McNally, Palmer, Dopson and later Flanagan and others. They also had a solid veteran bullpen (less used than bullpens of the today’s game, but still). The starters weren’t just good, they were all work horses. I believe that gave the Orioles a huge advantage in second halves of seasons, certainly when compared to the rather underwhelming Red Sox staff of pitchers. To this day, pitching has invariably been more of an issue for the Sox than hitting. Sure, there have been some great Sox starters like Martinez and Clemens. But generally speaking, the depth of pitching has been a problem while the depth of hitting has not.

    1. Thanks, Joshua. Interestingly when I went back on this blog 10 years ago looking for something else, it was pitching then that was being discussed

  34. Vicki, the PCP problem in the healthcare system is huge in the U.S. Shortages of PCPs (relatively underpaid; fewer medical students choose the specialty). Urgent care has tried to fill the void. But it is NOT a substitute for proper PCP care, which includes real first-hand knowledge of a patient’s condition(s) and continuity of care. The problems getting appointments, also for specialists, has been a growing problem for years in the U.S. Wait times in the U.S. used to be brief. Now we’ve become like England and Europe WITHOUT the benefit of much less expensive care.

    1. Absolute truth. I’ve always believed MA has the best of the best. And if we are struggling, I hate to think what the rest of the country is doing. My pcp is not as important to me as my specialists. That said, and as said above, I do tons of research on every doctor. Fortunately partners is moving more and more to my area. I am not a fan of umass. So I have been able to also move all except one out this way and am lucky to feel absolute confidence in all. It turns out my new pulmonologist stepped in to help me with my current issue.

  35. TK, is it rain season in Venezuela? I’m following the news there closely and practically every time I see people in the streets of Caracas it’s cloudy or raining.

    1. By the way, Maria Corina Machado is a brave woman. Barred from being a presidential candidate by the autocrat, Maduro, she designated Edmundo Gonzalez (who I call Venezuela’s Joe Biden) to be the opposition’s candidate. He won the election by a wide margin. But Maduro is claiming he won and will stay in power. More things change, the more they stay the same. Dictators will be dictators.

    2. June to October is their wettest 5 months. They transition in November to the driest 5 months from December to April, then transition back to the wetter season during May.

  37. Hampton Beach decided to go ahead with fireworks. They’re ok for now. I just have to hope that activity to the west does not survive that far east …………

  39. I’m being nice. I really am being nice. I’m trying to be nice. This being nice thing is more difficult than I expected

    1. Hahahahahaha. I hadn’t thought of the former. Wonder if DeSantis has a sharpie.

      Well….i did try

  43. I sat out late mid afternoon to watch the kids run their RC vehicles up and down the street. It was pleasantly comfortable with a nice breeze

  44. Logan is already up to 81 with a delicious (NOT!!!!) dew point of 70. That makes another dayof 70+ dew points for Logan!!!
    PATHETIC!!!

    What is this, FLORIDA???????????????????????????????

  45. Boston did not break a record for 70 degree dew points.
    It ranked 4th for most days with 70+ degree dew points for July ……. however, read on.

    CAVEAT: It was only in recent years that the sensor was MOVED to a spot surrounded even more closely on 3 sides by water, so the dew point readings at that site increased starting with that move. So it’s really a stat that means very little. In terms of history, regarding changing of locations, you are now comparing apples to oranges. We have to be careful of things like this on a location by location basis. A lot of moves of sensing equipment was NOT to a favorable location for accurate readings. Boston is far from the only site this has happened.

    Oh yes, new weather post!

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