Thursday August 1 2024 Forecast (8:23AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)

A couple of hotter days are going to start the month of August here in southeastern New England. It won’t be searing nor will we break any records, but hot enough for a heat advisory to be issued by the NWS today (through tomorrow too). Today will feature a shift in wind more to the west behind a trough moving offshore. This will bring a slight down-slope drying and dew points that were 70+ everywhere can fall below 70 for several hours. A persistent high offshore will help turn winds back to southwest and bump up the humidity again for Friday. The shower and thunderstorm threat becomes minimal today, under 10%, and only nudges up slightly on Friday, with the greatest chance to see any activity being central MA to eastern CT later in the day as a result of activity developing further west of there and moving into that region. Odds are pretty low to see showers and storms elsewhere on Friday, so by and large just a couple hot summer days ahead – “least humid” today, more oppressive tomorrow. The weekend continues the theme of high humidity, but 90-degree high temps should be absent as we’ll see more cloud cover and a better chance at showers and thunderstorms. Right now, Saturday may be a complex day in terms of pin pointing showers and storms. There are indications of some morning to midday activity, favoring areas west and north of Boston, with a weak disturbance moving through. I’ve also seen a few hints on some reliable guidance of a type of MCS that may evolve somewhere between the Great Lakes and western New England that could drop southward, maybe through parts of southwestern New England, but also take most of the available moisture with it, leaving much of SNE storm-free later Saturday. This is a gamble of a forecast and one where the details may be different, so for now I’m just going to play this as isolated to scattered storm chances and fine-tune it with tomorrow’s and Saturday’s morning blog updates. Sunday stands a better chance of more widespread activity as a slow moving cold front enters the region from the northwest. This front may take until sometime Monday to fully pass through, so that looks like a transition day to lower humidity, gradually, with still the opportunity for showers around. Also, this being day 5, and least-certain, the outlook will be revisited several times in coming updates.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy An isolated shower or thunderstorm favoring southwestern NH and north central MA first half of the afternoon. Highs 85-92, except a bit cooler Cape Cod. Dew point falls below 70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late in the day, favoring central MA and eastern CT. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, can be stronger near any storms.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring southern areas. Highs 78-85. Dew point lowering gradually through 60s. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)

Increased humidity and shower chances may return toward the middle of next week as a transition between a briefly drier pattern and a more summary one. There will be a lot of sorting out day to day details to do.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)

No major heat indicated, but somewhat variable / near normal temperatures overall, with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

82 thoughts on “Thursday August 1 2024 Forecast (8:23AM)”

    1. Right now I think most activity occurs west and north of Boston in the morning, and southwest of Boston later on. But that’s with 48 hours to go regarding convection forecasting. 😉

      Regardless, if you asked me the same question you did yesterday, I’d say “schedule it”. 🙂

  3. Thanks TK
    One of our meteorologists here in CT said this morning after tomorrow we might be done with 90 degree temperatures for a while. Yesterday the CPC had normal temps 6-10 day outlook and 8-14 day outlook had below normal temps.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    And thanks for the dew point comment on the last blog.
    You know how I feel about weather records being kept at Logan. Meaningless for the rest of the city. Perhaps meaningful for the airport, but NOT the rest of us!!!!

    Interesting info on the dp sensor!!!

    record or no, this July had an awful lot of 70+ dew point days.
    I am SICK TO DEATH OF IT and the sooner this crap ends the better!!!!

    still 70 dew points almost to Albany where it is 68

    1. That drying will spread east over the next few hours. It’s relative, but it should drop most areas (except maybe Cape Cod / South Caost) below 70 for several hours.

  6. Development potential for that system is somewhat diminished. Now it’ll be interacting with islands that will keep its chances muted somewhat. Development is still possible, but this current scenario shows you why SAK brought up the ensembles (and I agreed) the other day while all the “fake-met” pages were hyping a huge storm for the East Coast. 😉 There’s a method to medium and longer range outlooks that we use .. for a reason. 🙂

      1. That’s a good one too. I kind of go around different ones depending on my mood at the moment. 🙂

  8. Thanks, TK.

    There’s invariably a break in summer at some point in August, just like there is – even during the coldest of winters – in January/February. I’ve found these shifts to be signals rather than trends: A Sign that change is ahead, BUT usually the breaks themselves are only temporary. No matter what happens in the coming 10-14 days, 90F days, along with humidity, are still very much a possibility right through early to even mid September.

    1. One of the most notable summer breaks we’ve ever had was in August 1988. Right on the 15th of the month.

    2. I had the same thought. We typically rented in Humarock in August. And I always bought a new Hum sweatshirt and wore it plenty. To be fair, we were on the ocean, but I rarely wear a jacket in winter so it had to be quite cool for me to wear a sweatshirt

  9. The best win the Sox have had in a while: 3-2 in 10 innings. They had lost their previous 3 straight extra inning affairs in ugly fashion. I hope they keep this up. Let the Sox prove me wrong.

  10. I wish I had saved the story and source of something I saw a couple days ago about “how are the olympians going to deal with the unprecedented heat in paris during the games” or whatever the headline said ……….

    Yup. Started with a cool, wet weekend, cleared up, then they had a spike of heat on Tuesday (90s), which, btw, is not unprecedented… 😉 …. Today, upper 80s for a high. Most of the rest of the days should see highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s. My goodness, however will they deal with the unprecedented heat? 😉

    I have to see if I can find that story.

    1. This is where that came from. E.F. tweeted the CPC 30 day outlook for August yesterday. The outlook is for a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures and a 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation for the month. Somebody saw this, and read the pretty orange shading over New England and misinterpreted that as “very hot” for August.

      I don’t see a “very hot” month ahead, no. And I bet E.F. doesn’t either. He probably had nothing to do with what you heard on the radio this morning. 😉 This is another great example of what is wrong in media.

    1. The drier air is not really appearing as a line that moves eastward, but rather is a process that will take place during the day across the region. What was moving eastward through the region was a trough / wind shift to make this process take place. Note that most areas now have a west wind, after having south wind yesterday and last night. The wind is even northwest at Boston right now.

      1. Yes I get that, but it ain’t happening yet. Dew points are 70+ from Boston to the Great Lakes. 🙂

        1. Because it’s not coming from anywhere except taking place IN place, during the day. It’s not even 11 a.m. yet. 😉

  13. One clarification:

    “hot enough for a heat advisory to be issued by the NWS today (likely tomorrow too). ”

    The Heat Advisory that NWS issued at 3am is in effect until 7pm Friday.

    1. Thank you, I misread the time on that. Sinus infection. My head is mostly cloudy. 😉

  15. Dew point at Boston has fallen from 72 to 69 so far. The process described in my discussion today is taking place.

  16. The NAM from 12z has changed its timing a little bit on shower threats so that they will be largely absent during daytime hours both Saturday AND Sunday, making the assumption that guidance is correct. I’ll elaborate more on this later if I see this as a trend. It’s one run so far, so other than taking note of that, there isn’t much else to say.

      1. June 2020 I believe. Biden just spoke. The daughter of one of the hostages turns 13 tomorrow. My guess is there were not many dry eyes as they sung happy birthday to her during the press conference. I know mine were not dry

      2. Correction. I think it was December 2018.

        I’m hoping everyone is watching or will watch the reunion as the three Americans arrived home

    1. And in this simulation, that central Canada difference might just help in combo with the western Atlantic ridge nudging in to simulate a backing of the upper flow and a simulated close pass of projected tropical system.

      I don’t take this run any more serious than the 12z run, but we’re sitting blind in the medium range the next 2 months for tropical systems, at least on the gfs.

      2. You’re only sitting blind if you take the GFS at face value. Anything more than 5 days out, if you’re looking at the Operational and not the Ensembles for tropicals, then you’re not doing it right.

        1. I agree the ens are far better but even those are suspect until we have an actual surface low. That’s not happening through 48 at least.

          1. Nobody’s telling you you’re doing it wrong Tom, just so you know. 🙂 It’s just a general statement as a reminder that we need to use that info available.

            No issue pointing out what the op runs say. We know that they are far from trustable. But with as many people as read through this blog, reminders are good! 🙂

            I know how much folks like yourself and JPD love to follow the guidance. Keep on following. 🙂

            1. Thanks and my response was sincere.

              I took it as you were both teaching and I am willing to learn. 🙂

    1. First we need a system to actually track. It’s just an area of disturbed weather with virtually no shot at development through 48 hours, then a better chance if getting organized as it heads through the western Caribbean and toward the area of FL or the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The only thing that will remotely help right now are ensembles, and until we have a low, even those are so-so. Any op run by itself is just about the same as hitting the “random forecast” button. 😉

  22. If you see anything floating around the net that shares a YouTube page called “Direct Weather” … do NOT pay attention to it and most importantly do NOT share it.

    This person may be the single biggest non-met hype master on the entirety of social media.

    Thanks for not spreading the lies!

  23. As expected, the dew points in a good portion of the region have fallen below 70. The exception is the swath of real estate mostly south of I-90. That will be harder to dry out, but some areas may share a bit in that up into the early evening hours. The South Coast misses out on the slight drying.

    2. I know you said hit or miss but it still looks like a lot of rain … I guess we could use it.

      1. Most places will probably end up with “not that much”.
        Guidance can be very deceiving here. The coverage of the bigger stuff will likely be limited.

  32. Just finished watching the movie Kodachrome for the
    third time. What a great movie available on Netflix!
    Jason sudeikis is out of his mind FANTASTIC in this movie
    and Ed Harris is pretty damn good as well!!! Well worth a look
    for anyone interested. 🙂

    Here is a great tune featured in this movie

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsJ4O-nSveg

  33. Nice thunderstorm delaying some of the outdoor night events, like Beach Volleyball, in the last hour, so if that’s allowed to finish up it’ll be a late finish to the action tonight in Paris.

    It was not particularly hot yesterday or today (just kind of average). They had a 2-day hot spell Monday-Tuesday and that’s about it for the hot stuff. No heatwaves for the remainder of the games as it looks now. Quite comfortable in fact for week 2. 🙂

  34. Note how despite drying out a bit, today was Boston’s hottest day because of the down sloping. Some of Boston’s hottest weather has taken place with winds from the west or northwest, NOT southwest. Physics at work. 🙂

  35. First time I’ve ever seen a state of emergency declared (parts of Florida) for a tropical system that doesn’t exist yet.

    High potential for the “cry-wolf” reaction if they end up with little or no impact.

    1. It is an amazing day…..and it is so nice to have one where you smile all the way through it. And true to form , Biden graciously shared credit with our allies.

  38. What a perfect summer day IMO. Stayed on the beach until 8pm and come back to the sound of the first cricket officially signaling we have arrived at the second half of summer! Great start to August – member summer lasts until the last cricket croaks!

  39. Indeed, Vicki, we (America) can never just operate on our own. We must have allies and alliances, the greatest of which the world has ever known is NATO, in my view. It has flaws, yes. But it is a lifeline to many, as my Swedish and Finnish friends/acquaintances of all political persuasions tell me these days. They’re so happy to now be part of NATO.

    1. Absolutely true. I smiled when I saw Finland and especially Sweden are now members. As you know Sweden holds a special place in my heart

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