Friday August 2 2024 Forecast (8:12AM)

123 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)

There is a period of time during mid and late summer when getting specific with weather forecasts, even in the short term, can be quite tricky, as our weather is often triggered by interactions of boundaries and fairly small scale systems in weak wind flows, and while it’s doing one thing in one location it can be doing something very different somewhere not far away. That situation exists to some degree at this time, especially the next couple days. No doubt we remain in a very warm to hot, very humid air mass through the weekend. Today’s and Saturday’s shower and thunderstorm chances will be limited, but where activity occurs, torrential downpours can take place. I think the most notable aspect of today’s weather is the heat/humidity combo, not record-breaking certainly, but if you’re going to be outside working or exercising, you’ll want to practice caution. It is a weak disturbance that can help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Yesterday I mentioned most of this activity being west of here, but I do think the chance does exist as far east as Metro Boston from mid afternoon to early evening. I just do not expect widespread coverage, more of an isolated to scattered coverage. Tonight, a stronger disturbance will be traversing the region from west to east, and this will keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms going right through the night. It won’t be “doing something” all the time, in fact most of the time it won’t be, but any showers and storms that occur can produce very heavy downpours, and even a few brief wind gusts. Those near a maturing storm could see a brief burst of more frequent lightning, but I don’t expect these kinds of storms to stay sustained, unless a cluster can get organized. This would be most likely in the overnight / pre-dawn hours of Saturday. This disturbance should be about to push offshore near or shortly after sunrise, putting an end to the shower and thunderstorm threat. During the day Saturday, we’ll heat back up, maybe a little less hot than today, but just as if not slightly more humid. You’d think with that tropical airmass we’d be in for it in terms of heavy rain, but once again I only expect fairly isolated activity to pop up during the day / early evening, with many areas staying rain-free. It’s on Sunday when we finally bring a slow-moving cold front across the area that we should be able to squeeze more moisture out of the atmosphere with higher rainfall coverage. This day could present some flash flooding issues, but I’ll revisit this potential on the next couple updates. While this front is not bringing in a crisp, dry air mass, we will see a reduction in humidity for Monday and a drop off of shower and thunderstorm chances to just a slight possibility of isolated activity. However, that boundary will still be nearby on Tuesday and as another disturbance works its way into the region from the west, the shower and thunderstorm chance may very well increase once again. That’s not really a bad thing, as the region has been drier overall in the last few weeks, and could use some beneficial rainfall. This can often not seem the case when it’s been humid, but high humidity itself does not prevent rainfall deficits.

TODAY: Hazy sun / some clouds popping up. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 85-92 except a spot hotter temperature possible interior valleys, and cooler South Coast. Dew point remains 70+ south of I-90 and rises from 60s to 70+ to the north. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except brief gusty wind possible near some showers and storms.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring very early morning in eastern areas and favoring afternoon areas mainly west of Boston. Highs 82-89. Dew point 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, can be stronger near any storms.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)

There’s a potential tropical system that may develop as it moves across Cuba into the Florida area the next few days and by the middle of next week the moisture from this system, or the system as an organized low, may pass close to or south of the region. This is very much speculation based on information that cannot be pinned down confidently based on the current state and uncertainty of the system. Obvious fine-tuning to come. Otherwise, unsettled, cooler weather the middle of next week should give way to fair, warmer weather later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

No major heat indicated, but somewhat variable / near normal temperatures overall, with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

123 thoughts on “Friday August 2 2024 Forecast (8:12AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 92 here yesterday with dp 71 or 70 until late in the day
    when it dropped all the way to 68.

  4. The showers and thunderstorms tonight need to hold off until after midnight. I’ll be at Metallica at Gillette Stadium! I’ll be there for the 2nd show Sunday evening, so let’s hope the showers and storms stay away then as well.

    Also, not sure if anyone has mentioned this recently, but SPC announced that starting somewhere around August 20, they’ll begin updating the Day 3 Outlook in the afternoon as well, usually around 3:30pm. Currently, it’s only issued around 3:30am, and not updated again.

    2. Thanks, JJ. I have said before that the day will always be a memory. We moved one of the first female professors and her family into their new home at Dartmouth. We had no idea of thr actual temp but neighbors kept bringing us cold drinks. I slept on the living room floor that night with the doors to the adjacent porch open. I think I imagined there was a breeze.

      1. I remember that day well, it was on a Saturday if I recall correctly. Didn’t New Bedford set a record that day also?

  10. Thanks, TK!

    84 now

    93 yesterday.

    Spent a wonderful day at Polar Park yesterday afternoon, my summer treat!

  13. NHC has classified tropical wave as potential tropical cyclone # 4

    I believe this designation allows them to throw up tropical storm watches or warnings even ahead of the system being named.

  15. They have already issued tropical storm watches and warnings for the Gulf side of Florida. It is not forecasted to become a hurricane as of now.

  16. Going forward, I’m interested in a possible scenario where this thing is a tropical storm/hurricane passing southeast of us, but in passing, it does 2 things.

    1) provides some upper level moisture to its north, which ……

    2) merges into a stationary front that is held up along the south coast or southern New England until the tropical system passes by

    But while that’s happening, some of that high level tropical moisture interacts with the front and drops a big rain event.

    Hopefully all that will be displaced further to our south and east.

    A scenario like Hurricane Arthur sometime 7-10 yrs ago ….

  19. Thanks, TK.

    I look forward to being outdoors again … next week.

    I tried to run outside early this morning. Gave up after a half-mile. It’s just brutal, for me at least. I’ll stay indoors until Tuesday. I’m a summer shut-in, I guess.

  20. 12z GFS kinda playing out the scenario of a stalled front. I just didn’t expect it in southern nh/northern MA.

    Every possibility with not a drop or rain to this entity not developing to the models not having the 500 mb flow right.

    With that said, the ocean to our south is so warm, the effects of Tonga, I’m not concerned on a direct hit, but I do have in the back of my head a stalled front scenario/high altitude moisture from the tropical system’s outflow …… combining to drop a concerning amt of rain somewhere in the mid Atlantic/northeast.

    2. Every possibility ….. is on the table, miss, system doesn’t develop, 500 mb flow is off, all on the table.

  22. Besides the obvious of how the wave tracks and develops or not develops …….

    2 things to watch

    1) an active jet stream near the Canada/US border. ……. The models are struggling, as would be expected with disturbances in it that affect the flow. A flow at 500 mb of west vs southwest can have great effect on where a stalled front takes up residence.

    2) the Bermuda high/western Atlantic ridge. I think this year, the models have always been playing catchup from the medium transitioning to short term as to its strength. They’ve undermodeled it in the mid range.

    But even in this mid range, from the mid Atlantic, southward, they are showing that western Atlantic ridge nudging westward, which should give this thing, if it’s there, a chance to get to at least the other banks latitude before it can start to be influenced eastward enough by the northern jet.

    But that might be close enough to interact with a stalled front.

    Could be interesting …..

    1. There was a bit of a seabreeze here earlier, now it’s seems very weak.

      Our best cumulus cloud is to our south, it happens, but not often.

  29. I am hearing rumbles of thunder now.
    Special Weather Statement continues on that thunderstorm with wind gusts up to 50mph.

  31. Thanks TK! I really appreciate all of your detail with so many variables to consider. I went for a four mile run this morning and barely made it to 3 and walked most of the last mile The air is just so heavy even at 7am.

  35. First time in a while both the 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks from the CPC showing below normal temps.

  36. Parts of Simsbury, CT and East Windsor, CT got hit hard with a thunderstorm this afternoon.

    Simsbury CT hit hard by wind damage – Numerous Trees & Wires down – Tree down on house – 2 Carver Circle, Tree down on house 59 Barry Circle, Tree down on house 63 Barry Circle, Tree down on Lincoln Lane, Numerous trees down Seminary Road

    East Windsor, CT: Trees down on Wires on North Road, Chamberland Road, Scantic Road, Main Street at North Road – Utility Pole down, Wires down on Car with people inside on Apothecaries Hall Road, Trees down in area of 160 Tromley Rd

    1. I thought that strom looked pretty strong. It was warned, yet NOTHING from the SPC. They just left us hanging in the wind.

      1. There can often be a couple isolated severe storms even in areas not outlooked by SPC. Based on very local conditions. They can’t really outlook everywhere or it’d just be a much bigger area all the time than it needs to be.

  37. I believe that was the same thunderstorm you mentioned a couple hours ago that formed in southwestern CT as it made a track northeast. Obviously with those storms reports this storm intensified when it got to those areas.

  38. There is a small cell SW of here. It may clip us. I can hear some pretty healthy thunder in the distance. The clouds are towering in Uxbridge. More of a solid cloud cover here in sutton

    1. Unless my radar display is offset a bit from the map, it appears that this “severe” storm will slide just to my Sout. What else is new? Of course, still could get clipped my Northern edge of it.

  41. I am right in the warned area, but AINT’T NOTHING HAPPENIN!!!
    Lousy language purposeful!

    Nearest lightning now Mattapab.

    I think my area has a storm vacuum cleaner that just Sucks the life right out of storms. Powerful suction on that baby.

    Hold the presses. As I was typing it started pouring!
    We’ll take what we can get.
    Certainly NO sever storm here. NOT even close. 🙂

    1. Geez, down town Boston is getting CLOBBERED!!!!!
      A little cell coming over me now. No great shakes but will
      produce some rain.

        1. Amazing!! Nothing REMOTELY resembling severe here!
          And my rain gauge has been kaput for a long time, but my puddle estimate is a tenth or 2 received.

  42. No storms, just sat down at the beach, late start 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Seabreeze is gone, decent SW wind, it’s hot to the low tide line.

      2. Thanks !

        My wife and eldest daughter are in.

        I like to place a seat at the water line and have to move forward or backward depending on the tide. Just passed low tide about 30 mins ago 🙂

        1. At the ocean, I mostly liked body surfing with decent waves. Most times waves were putrid. 🙂

  44. I kind of think this line of storms is a pseudo dp front.

    South of it a ways, the dps are ridiculous. RI, SE Mass, all btwn 74 and 77F.

  46. Good hit here. 3 strikes under 1 mile away. One of them was about 1500 feet to my east.

  51. Checked the long range forecast for London and it looks like a few upper 40s nights could happen while I’m there. Dew points will generally be in the 50s, as they tend to be anyway during summer.

    1. 0.00 here but we have a glorious 74 dew point. Which begs the question. If there is that much moisture in the air, does that somehow add to rain totals. 😉

  53. Monday showing signs now of being hot ….

    That’s because a disturbance is approaching from the west.

    That disturbance passes Tuesday and how far north TD 4 is, can determine if the brief sag in the jet stream can catch it and take it out to sea.

    If it doesn’t, the next disturbance digs much further west in Canada and that can back the jet stream to SW to NE flow and let whatever becomes of TD 4 come much closer to us.

    My concern level is coming up a bit. Still mostly for rainfall as it’s impossible to feel confident how strong the system could be.

    1. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024080300&fh=60&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      North of the Great Lakes is that disturbance on Monday and if TD 4 were further north, it would capture it Tuesday and whisk it out to sea. ( this still could happen as we get closer)

      If it misses and leaves it behind, look up in Britis Columbia, can see a new disturbance and if that develops that far west, it’s likely to back the flow along the east coast later next week.

    1. We’d need to pull out Kuchera for these rain totals. …… 8-10 inches !!!!!

      But, the moisture is there.

      Look at these 75-78F dew points, that tells one how much moisture is there sitting over the Atlantic Ocean to be lifted right over a stationary front.

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