Saturday August 3 2024 Forecast (8:40AM)

118 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)

We have a change in the pattern upcoming, but before that a very warm and muggy weekend, continuing the ongoing mid summer theme. Today’s shower and thunderstorm threat was greatest before I wrote this, with a decent batch of showers and embedded storms moving through a good portion of the region in the pre-dawn hours, but during the day today, the activity will be limited to isolated. It is later tonight, a disturbance can send another batch or two of showers/storms through the region. During Sunday, an approaching cold front will up the chance somewhat, but it still doesn’t look like the region will be wide-swathed by showers and thunderstorms. Just keep in mind your chance of seeing one is better tomorrow than today. Temperatures will be higher today with more sun, and generally down a couple degrees on average tomorrow due to more cloudiness prevailing. Monday, a more westerly wind sets up another down slope situation, which will cause me to bump my temperature forecast up over what I had on yesterday’s update. The shower and thunderstorm chance is lower Monday, but not non-existent. Monday will be the last day of heat for a while as we settle into a cooler regime as we head through Tuesday and Wednesday with more northerly to easterly flow setting up with the help of Canadian high pressure. However, the frontal boundary that approaches Sunday and passes Monday is not going that far, and will be sitting nearby, allowing the weather to be somewhat unsettled at times heading toward midweek. Details of this will be brought into focus as we get closer to that time frame.

TODAY: A sun/cloud mix. Isolated showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, can be stronger near any storms.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 85-92. Dew point lowers toward 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)

A tropical system (forecast to be a tropical storm) in the US Southeast region will have to be watched for possible East Coast impact. The possibilities with the eventual track and impact of this system are very wide-ranging, and it’s forecast-foolish to try to pin it down with confidence this far out. Therefore, my sensible weather outlook for this period of time is for near to below normal temperatures as a result of the upcoming pattern, and an opportunity for some rainfall at some point, to be fine-tuned in the days ahead. Don’t alter / cancel any plans for this period of time just yet – instead, keep in mind that this may need to be considered if the system has impact.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

No major sustained heat indicated, fairly seasonable and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities anticipated as we head through mid month.

118 thoughts on “Saturday August 3 2024 Forecast (8:40AM)”

    1. I’ll be taking a walk in a little bit ’round the high school which is kind of an every Saturday morning thing for me, dating back to 1983 when I took my brother’s dog for those walks. I’ve been doing this and listening to the same 45 minute music soundtrack pretty much every Saturday AM from late spring to summer’s end for 41 years. 🙂

        1. The hazy look is a combination of think smoke (aloft, not near surface), and lower level moisture.

          We don’t get the classic summer haze as often as we used to (much worse 1970s and 1980s) due to different standards and less air pollution coming from the Midwest. Many of our formerly HHH days are now just HH days. 🙂

  3. I have to chuckle watching all the tropical freak outs showing up on my social media news feeds based on single operational runs of a model (that recently received an upgrade and we’re not even sure how it performs with each type of system – this takes months to find out).

    As stated in my discussion, the meteorological possibilities are wide-ranging with the tropical cyclone.

    I could make a scenario for steady movement / recurve and a system that passes out to sea well south of New England by the middle of the week, to a system that mills around the eastern Gulf region and stays buried down there, only to drift westward and dissipate somewhere between the lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Then pick however many detailed scenarios between this to describe and you could be writing potential scenarios all day. THIS, folks, is why I worded it the way I did in my blog post, and this is the correct meteorological way to go about it at this stage. Forecast the system in detail where the confidence is, 12, 24, 48 hours out, then start to shift to more speculative mode, with less and less detail.

    It’s pretty much the same story every time, but there will be many folks out there in internetland who’ll be reacting to every post that the hype masters and folks playing meteorologist will be tossing up there to get their ego-satisfying reactions. Shame that it happens at all that way.

    I know everybody here knows far better than that. 🙂

    So now that I have that out of my system… I’m going to try to ignore it from here on and let those people do what they will do. I’ll do what I do. 😉

  4. I think Ms Debby is expected to take a slow ride if it turns north. Impossible to say if the storm would ever get this far north and if it did what would be left of it.

    1. One of the scenarios is the system never gets north of the Mason-Dixon line and meets its demise in the Deep South. But this, as noted above, is one of a wide-range of potentials that exist with a just-formed system. We have a long process ahead of focusing the thing in…

      This is why it drives me batty when somebody slaps the 18z GFS up on their “I love to play weather forecaster” Facebook page just to get reactions. Undermines what us legit folks do, because so many people see it and so many people just buy what’s there (their own fault, but still frustrating as hell).

  7. It’s a big birthday day

    Very happy birthday to JPD and Rainshine.

    And happy eighth to my youngest grand, Rilyn Mac. And to Tom Brady

  8. Good morning and thank you TK

    Made 92 here yesterday with dp in lower to mid 70s

    77 overnight

    currently 84 with dp 74

    Ocean temp: 68.5 (Boston Buoy)

  11. Since the media is hyper-focused on the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific often gets ignored. So here I am to bring you info you won’t hear most other places.

    The EPAC is off to its slowest tropical start on record, having set records for the latest date before a named system, and the latest date before having a storm of hurricane intensity.

    This image shows the ACE plotted from 1980 to 2024. Somebody forgot to remind the basin its tropical season.

    https://scontent-bos5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/453634321_7898734323529606_8066617856411595154_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p180x540&_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=aa7b47&_nc_ohc=y5fNTxRnuzYQ7kNvgFW5VFV&_nc_ht=scontent-bos5-1.xx&oh=00_AYA2XU2dnGQKMDPV5AcsKT-vElFRceUkxcEn4n13wwqn0Q&oe=66B401A2

    You also can see a representation of a multi-decada oscillation that exists in the basin (they exist in all basins). The EPAC was in an active regime while the Atlantic was quiet, and currently they are reversed.

  12. Rainshine and JpD: HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!

    Do the two of you realize that your birthdays fall on International Hangover Day?! Yup, that’s today which probably means yesterday was International Beer Day.

  13. Reminder: Check ensembles for all medium range models with regards to speculation on the tc.

  14. Living the life of a summer shut-in (even the thought of going outside today makes me queasy) I’m doing lots of research and writing. For those interested, my very latest articles run the gamut from antimicrobial resistance on the rise due to wars in Ukraine and Gaza to Kamala Harris’s healthcare policies to Trump’s touting of the Right To Try Act: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/

    I believe the first 4 articles each month are free on the Forbes website.

  15. Had one rumble of thunder and 4 raindrops during our tailgate in Foxborough last night. Then some drizzle and a little light rain as we were sitting in the traffic trying to get home after the show. I between? A-freaking-mazing. I’d seen Mammoth before and Wolfie does a great job. Pantera was just as great as when I saw them 30 years ago and got the crowd in the proper mood for the true kings of metal who just as great as the first 10 teams I’d seen them. Can’t wait for Sunday’s show now (or for Steve Miller Band/Journey/Def Leppard at Fenway on Monday).

    1. Glad it was a great time!

      I saw somebody selling their tickets to the Steve Miller / Journey / Def Leppard show and I thought to myself, for a moment, hey maybe I should tell SAK………… and then I thought about it. No, he already has tickets to that show. Bet on it.

    2. Fenway show looks awesome!!! I guess I’ll need ear plugs Monday night. 🙂

      Was going to See Def Lepard with Bryan Adams years ago, but my Mom passed and I didn’t get to the show.

      Have seen Bryan Adams up close at the Paradise a number of years ago. He did a solo acoustic set and was out of this world awesome. We were so close, we literaly could have touched him.

      ENJOY the show!!!! Def Lepard will ROCK!!!!!!

  16. Sort of a just for kicks page. It’s called Track the Tropics and is put together by a guy in Louisiana. His name is Chad and he fully discloses his site aggregates links from all over the place. You can see a lot of tropic graphics in one place. Maybe too many.

    https://www.trackthetropics.com/

    1. Thanks Tom

      Was going to go fishing, but the day started at 77 with dp 74.
      NO THANK YOU!!!! No need to sweat bullets!!!!

      I’ll take a day off Tuesday or Wednesday instead when it’s a bit DRIER!!!!!

  20. That was some overnight in southern New England.

    At 2am, it was near 80F south of the Mass Pike with dps btwn 75F and close to 80F.

    1. Wow …. Temp went up !

      I mean, common if there’s Radiational cooling and then clouds come in overnight for the temp to bottom out then rise some overnight.

      But 75F with how humid it was and still to rise, wow !!!!

  25. It’s very hard to describe this weather to people who’ve never experienced. Some of my friends and colleagues in Northern Europe haven’t. I messaged a friend of mine in the Netherlands about the huge difference in temperature and humidity levels between airconditioned spaces and the outdoors, so much so that you experience a shock of sorts when you leave an AC environment. See paragraph below. That’s really hard to imagine if you haven’t experienced it. He was incredulous (the Dutch are naturally skeptical people and often assume that a person is exaggerating).

    The other day when I did venture out, I was at a Starbucks where they kept the temperature way too cold (uncomfortably so). When I left the establishment my glasses fogged up so much that I couldn’t see anything and needed to take them off. The blast of heat and humidity as a I exited the coffee shop was such that it immediately created condensation. I can tell that while living in the Netherlands and UK for 20 years that never occurred, not once.

  26. I’ve been taking care of a friend’s animals and outdoor (fire escape) plants for 6 days in Providence, RI. I think Providence has been even stickier and warmer than Boston, though I’m not sure.

    2. Joshua, if you’re back from RI and game to venture out nearby this evening, there’s a very interesting cello concerto called “Self-Portrait with Gebirtig” being performed on the Esplanade. The concert starts at 7:00, and the concerto is on the first half.

  27. Well, the 12Z ICON says HELLO To DEBBY (FWIW)

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2024080312&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2024080312&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    48 qpf

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024080312&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    total qpf

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024080312&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  30. The temp rise in some locations overnight was attributable to something we actually see quite often in an active summer pattern…

    Rain-cooled air was replaced with air that was not rain-cooled. This can result in temp rises during the night, sometimes significantly.

    1. Over time, scientists have noticed that some hurricanes and tropical systems generate areas of heavy rain far ahead of the main storm system. These events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs) because they generally occur about 36 hours ahead of the main storm passage and as much as 600 miles poleward of the storm center.

  32. So, from our current weather, we know that our over the ocean to our south is 75-80F dp air.

    The GFS scenario basically takes that air plus high altitude moisture, sends it northeast aloft up the coast, while there’s E and SE flow at the surface and runs that insane humidity up and over a front where on the other side, the air is in the 60s with dps in the 60s.

    Of course, I don’t know if the scenario will verify.

    The worrisome part is if the meteorology part verifies, then this humidity raised over a front could produce epic rains, like shown on the GFS

    The important part is does it synoptically set up like this.

    But, I think we can all feel the incredible moisture in the air and it’s not impossible to wring out those kind of totals over an area that rains many, many hours.

  33. Next example of “operational runs mean virtually nothing this far in advance” …

    There’s about an 8 to 10 inch difference between the 12z GFS op run’s rainfall forecast through August 10 and the ensemble mean rainfall forecast through the same time. Obviously, the operational run is off the charts high. This is typical. The GFS typically massively over-forecasts PRE events days in advance. Not sure if the upgrade changed anything about that. Probably not.

    I’m sticking with ensembles for now. 🙂

    1. Your forecasting discipline is so good and being able to know what is useful, what not to factor in so much.

  34. The GDPS has its furthest north run …….

    I’m just concerned because of the west Atlantic ridge performing further west than modeled in the medium range and I feel as though, on all the runs the last 24-48 hrs, they e had a further west Atlantic ridge.

    I could see a scenario where the system gets bogged down in the southeast with a stronger Atlantic ridge if the main jet gets pushed further north.

    Onto the Euro

      1. Agreed.

        With it slow moving after its first landfall, there may be 19 new scenarios thrown out there in the next 48-72 hrs.

  37. TK. I saw your comment about rain cooled air above and am intrigued. Would that occur even though we didn’t have any rain?

    1. Because first, rain-cooled air advected into your area from nearby areas that had rain, and then later, was pushed back out.

      A more vivid example of rain-cooled air reaching an area that didn’t actually rain: An outflow boundary from a thunderstorm pushes out and away from the storm, bringing a cooling wind to a region that does not receive any rain from the actual storm.

      This was a slightly less dramatic version of that.

      1. Fascinating. Thank you. We were certainly close enough to the cell for the outflow boundary (another part of nature I find fascinating) to have reached and surpassed this area.

  39. 91, 72 here

    Was just running some errands. With the bright blue sky and cumulus clouds with “some” growth, it really reminded me of my last trip to Folorida! 🙂

    1. I almost used the phrase “Florida sky” in my discussion today, but I opted for something else. 🙂

  42. Jean, thanks for sharing the information on the cello concerto on the Esplanade. I’m still in Providence this weekend, so I won’t be able to attend.

    I do like the Landmark Orchestra events in the summer. Have been to many of these.

  43. Logan now has a sea breeze down to 86 with dp 73

    Here it is 88 and dp hovering between 73 and 74

  44. Ventured outside for a 3 mile slow walk with a 1 quart bottle of cold water in my backpack. Tried staying in the shade most of the time. Providence is quite hilly on the east side, so it’s a bit like walking in San Francisco. The city’s homes are quite magnificent. The array of architecture spans 3 centuries. And Brown University’s campus is truly idyllic. It makes me want to be 18 again, though I’m not sure if I would have gotten in.

    2. It is not a PRE there.
      That’s a frontal boundary (the one I talked about in my discussion), and the moisture is from the Midwest.

  50. I am seeing some flashes of lightning and hearing rumbles of thunder. Worst of the weather southern parts of Fairfield and New Haven counties with a severe thunderstorm warning until 530

  56. Short range guidance did a good job pegging the activity close to the S Coast. 🙂

    1. Ditto for here. Roads are wet. 0 registered in bucket. Temp down to 79. DP 73

      How are you all feeling, Ace?

          1. Vet did not test her but based on her symptoms not being typical of canine specific ailments and being in close proximity to 4 people with COVID, it was the most likely thing. She got better after a few days. We didn’t realize she could get it but it’s actually common

  61. That picture was from Trumbull not Derby. It was a couple towns in CT that got hit hard today and yesterday. Looking at the pictures would not be surprised if another microburst happened in Trumbull today.

  62. It doesn’t seem like any of these storms have a chance to make the south coast – they keep falling apart

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