Sunday August 4 2024 Forecast (7:41AM)

109 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)

Warm to hot, humid weather has 2 days left before it gets sent packing, and while we won’t be welcoming any crisp and dry Canadian air just yet, we’ll be seeing a notable change in the temperature regime across the region after Monday at least for a few days. High humidity continues today along with a shower and thunderstorm opportunity as a slow moving cold front approaches and the wind flow comes from the south and southwest. While the front won’t pass through the region until later Monday, we’ll see a reduction in humidity during the day with a more westerly wind and down sloping off the hills and mountains to our west. However, the passage of the front can trigger an additional shower or thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon and favoring areas near and north of I-90. We then turn considerably cooler for Tuesday and midweek as the front that goes by sits just south of the region. Additional disturbances leave us vulnerable to unsettled weather, at least lots of clouds, during Tuesday and Wednesday. I’m cautiously optimistic but with low confidence anticipate fair weather Thursday as high pressure to the north is under-forecast by guidance and has greater influence on our region. During the middle of the week we’ll also have to keep an eye on Debby (currently a tropical storm, forecast to become a category 1 hurricane before a Florida Panhandle landfall then milling around the US Southeast with an uncertain future). There are many “model scenarios” ranging from the remnants of the system curving out to sea to our south, to the system staying far to the south, never really getting that far north, just dissipating in the Southeast. There are far too much potential scenarios to confidently call for one at this time, but the one I lean toward points to the system not being an impact here through Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, can be stronger near any storms.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible, especially north of I-90. Highs 85-92. Dew point lowers toward 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)

Low confidence predicted scenario keeps our weather fair for Friday and holds influence from Debby (showers / thunderstorms) off until the August 10-11 weekend, and at that maybe only a portion of the weekend. Higher humidity and additional shower / thunderstorm chances may exist later in the period, but low confidence here pending the weather preceding it.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)

No major sustained heat indicated, fairly seasonable and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities anticipated at mid month.

109 thoughts on “Sunday August 4 2024 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  5. Good morning and thankyouu TK

    made 91 here yesterday eith do to 74

    75 overnight

    currently 76 dp 71 lots of clouds.

    ocean temp 69. 3 (Boston buoy)

    My gut say Debby dissipates some where over the SE US. We shall see.

  6. You’ll still get little useful information out of operational runs.

    The KEY is to stay with ensembles for best medium range guidance for now.

    The run to run variations in the operational models render them nearly useless.

  8. Example of why you’ll hear SAK and myself discount operational runs for a specific system this far in advance.

    Looking at the GFS operational runs (00z and 06z today) for the center of low pressure of Debby (whatever form it’s in).

    00z run, forecast for 12z August 13: Low center over Cape Cod.
    06z run, forecast for 12z August 13: Low center over Brunswick, Georgia.

    Oh, only about a 950 mile difference………………..

    1. In my blog on Debby, I only went out 3 days with the track, and posted the “Super-Ensemble” combo of the GFS/CMC?ECMWF?UKMET ensembles out to 5 days, never mentioning the operation models. Just way too many variables in the medium range that the operational runs will not figure out properly just yet,

    1. I remember 2015 well. We were driving home from a visit with Mac’s radiation oncologist and had to stop under a bridge due to hail. A video my daughter took popped up on my FB feed of hail bouncing off our deck table.

  14. I guess I am a movie Junkie…. 🙂 I’ll watch almost anything. 🙂

    Watched an oldie but goodie last night, The Natural
    With Robert Refford. It was more Awesome than I remembered. Most enjoyable movie! Very well done!

    Then today, I am finishing up a re-viewing of The Accountant with Ben Aflack. Wow! what a riveting movie! in my opinion, a must see movie. But maybe it’s just my weird mind. 🙂

  18. From the 12z Icon, I guess today is not the day we’re going to see all the op runs settle into something that has even 1% of consistency.

  19. Hurricane models ALL seem to have Debby die off in the Southern States, even close to the gulf and NEVER gives it a chance to come up here. Hmmm Interesting

        1. I think we have a future medium range operational run presentation at a future storm conference. 🙂

          3. No MesoScale Discussion as of yet. Likely no watch, imho
            Does NOT mean there will be Zero severe weather.
            We shall see. Looks interesting to me.

  24. Those storms are never gonna make it here to SE MA. Gonna need to irrigate, which makes me irate

  25. Last night the storms that were approaching Providence from the west never materialized. At best there was very light rain. From the window where I’m staying I could see the ominous clouds in the distance mostly break up once they approached the city. In the late afternoon there was a lengthy rain shower, but no storm activity associated with it.

    I’m expecting something similar late this afternoon.

    It is warm and humid here. Not as bad perhaps as it was. But 83F and a dew point of 75F isn’t exactly fun, especially in light of what we’ve endured for quite some time.

      1. The numbers I saw on tv were well in excess of a foot but I couldn’t find the source. As we know Charleston floods with a thimble full.

  27. I’ll give the op runs leeway in a slow moving tropical system and how it evolves in the medium range. No issue.

    They are struggling to determine/place a disturbance in the northern stream about 60-72 hrs out that could give showers to the south coast or 2+ inches of rain to a good chunk of Massachusetts.

    The one guarantee is that disturbance should really break the humidity and even back the temps off.

    But, really, no break on seeking consistency 60-72 hrs. Even on an op run, that should be a reasonable expectation.

    1. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024080412&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024080412&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024080412&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024080412&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024080412&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      At hr 72, but I ran 48 hr rain projections to avoid today’s rain.

  30. We have some rain here, but NO thunder.
    How long and how much to be determined. My guess is not long and not much. We shall see.

    1. lightning as close as 3.7 miles. But that is the southern tip of the cell which of course is going north of me 🙁

        1. Tell us how you really feel about Pearl Jam. 😉

          I don’t mind them but I don’t think I go to a live show.

            1. Not bad! I’d go free. I don’t hate them. Just not way up there on my list. 🙂

  36. Sitting on lower tide exposed sand at the sea wall before Brant Rock and the outflow boundary just switched a SW wind to off the ocean and the temp plunged !!!

    From hot to rather chilly in no more than 2 mins

    1. I’ve seen that happen before, but not from outflow, but
      rather an instant shift to sea breeze. 🙂

  39. We can’t get anything here on the south coast – strong storms near Boston and on Long Island -anything coming from LI just dissipates and we are stuck with a sea breeze and puffy marine clouds

  40. Absolutely pouring here now. Good thing we have club seats. We’re sitting inside the air-conditioned club right now.

  41. No rain in Providence at all and I must say it doesn’t look threatening like it did yesterday evening (though that threat never materialized).

  45. I couldn’t figure out where the thunder and lightning was coming from. Once I zoomed in on radar scope, I found tiny little cells embedded in all the green mass. Very cool

    We are Down to 75 with a 73 DP

  46. SNE can use a good dose of rain, as long as it’s not an all-day soaker. Lawns look a bit parched.

  47. 1.21 inches so far the last 90 mins in Marshfield.

    Waves of torrents, at least 3 separate ones with some thunder and lightning across those 90 mins.

  52. The rapid intensification of Debby was not an option. As I have said many times, it takes more than warm water to do it. That’s ONE ingredient.

    Too much dry air wrapped into the circulation, slowing down strengthening, and now it’s too close to land to strengthen much before landfall. Rain will be the story, not wind and storm surge.

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