Monday August 5 2024 Forecast (8:09AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)

We’ve one more hot summer day before a pattern change cools us down. Humidity levels ease up today compared to the weekend though with a little down sloping westerly wind today. A cold front approaches from the northwest and increases our chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms, but the timing looks late, as in tonight, for the best chance of such activity, so the loss of solar heating is likely to limit activity in the absence of other strong dynamics. With the frontal boundary still slogging its way through the region for a portion of Tuesday, there can be showers, especially along and south of the boundary, during the morning hours, before a break. But the boundary never gets that far to the south and another ripple of low pressure moving along it will bring the shower threat break to the region Tuesday night. Timing of this area suggests a drying trend on Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be considerably cooler than they have been recently, and the dew point will be lower, but not down into the crisp category. You’ll notice a difference though. And now we get to talk a little about Debby’s potential impacts up here, and much like I stated yesterday, the range of possibilities with that system remains very wide. Ensemble spread for the forecast of the low position itself, let alone any swaths of moisture that can extend hundreds of miles away from it, range up to about 500 miles, or more, for the late week period. I currently envision a scenario where the low center stays far to the south, meandering around the South Carolina Coast before being drawn back inland, and bands of moisture breaking off and heading north, at least for some distance. How far? That’s a good question. I am currently thinking that high pressure will hold everything to the south on Thursday, with a fair weather day here. The big question is really Friday / Saturday. I can see a scenario where high pressure is being under-forecast by guidance and it holds to keep our region dry one, or even both days, possibly allowing one arm of mid level moisture to pass by during that time, or even forcing it to the west, with surface high pressure sinking off to the southeast and allowing us to turn warmer and tropical, but not so rainy. A scenario of weaker high pressure could allow much more rain to get up this far north, but this scenario is one I am currently leaning away from as far as this 5-day forecast time frame is concerned. Needless to say, the forecast beyond 72 hours is very low confidence and subject to major tweaks the next few days.

TODAY: Sunshine dominates, clouds increase late. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point gradually lowers from upper to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Potential showers and thunderstorms late evening into overnight, with greatest potential for activity north and west of Boston. Areas of fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be stronger and gusty around any storms.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Shower chances are greatest in the morning mainly near and south of I-90. Highs 71-78. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and patchy fog morning. Thinning / breaking clouds afternoon, especially north of I-90. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential for showers. Lows 60-67. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)

Very low confidence forecast for the August 10-11 weekend but seeing a humid spell with the greater chance of shower activity later in the weekend based on the scenario I feel is most likely to take place regarding Debby. Early next week starts humid then trends drier, shower chances decrease. Significant heat is not in the forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)

Temperatures run near to a little below normal with a couple of episodes of unsettled weather to interrupt a mostly quiet pattern.

112 thoughts on “Monday August 5 2024 Forecast (8:09AM)”

  2. You may hear some sources talking in absolutes about later this week. If you hear it, discount it. In the science of forecasting, with the situation we’re looking at, there are no absolutes that far into the future as of right now.

    For example, there are scenarios where southern New England can be measuring many inches of rain, and scenarios where southern New England is virtually shut out from rain completely.

    If anybody tells you they know today, it’s a lie. 😉

    1. In my book, Debby has been discounted to zero for the moment. Maybe 48 hours from now, we might know more … maybe.

      It seems like a slow mover too. I have decided that if Debby were an animal, she would be a turtle.

    2. If we have learned one thing here, it is that more than 3 days is a wash. No pun intended. And adding that we have learned a whole lot more than that.

  3. Thanks TK !

    Was that a split second shot of you and your son at the end of the music video ?

    Congrats if that’s part of the music project you’ve been working on, good luck with the rest of the release ! I liked having the lyrics in the video as I sometimes struggle to get them correct :). Anyway, great job !!

    1. The end of the video features a 1/2 second clip of “A Finesse” aka Nate & myself, yes.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    Made 86 yesterday with 70 for an overnight low

    currently 76 with dew point 70. It was down to 67 earlier but right back up again!

    Ocean temp: 67.3

    Oh and fwiw, virtuall all of the global operational runs bring the remains of Debby up here in one form or another with much rainfall varying for a few inches to 10+ inches depending upon model of choice. I know, ensembles ensembles, ensembles.
    But to me, when ALL of the operational models are zeroing in on a solution, I will NOT ignore that. Color me a fool if you will.
    Just stating how I feel. Does this mean it is locked in? NOPE, not by a long shot, but it HAS my attention.

    TK very interesting tune you posted late yesterday.
    I presume that is you and Nate. Who is doing the bulk of the vocals? You or Nate or both. Looking forward to hearing the rest of it. And btw, who put that cool video together. Nice job!

    1. Well, that’s the time to pay more attention, when they are all zeroing in on one. But they’re not at this point, and probably won’t for a few more days.

      For example, just over a week ago, we had a quick flip in model guidance where 3 major global models all picked up on that low coming back toward New England for July 29. That was a time to pay attention. And it was about 48 hours in advance.

      There are still scenarios where the moisture from Debby never gets to parts of SNE.

    2. Regarding the music video…

      The robotic sounding choruses in all CAPS are sung by both of us (with my voice less robotic and his more robotic).

      The verses are mixed. The lyrics on screen are in small letters, and those on the lower left are sung by him while those on the upper right are sung by me. They also appear left (him) and right (me) in the stereo spectrum. You may notice that there is overlap of some syllables where the same syllable for 2 different words is sung simultaneously, and in one case we go back and forth rapidly from one to the other for about a dozen words.

        1. Thank you. 🙂 That was an very difficult task, writing, recording, arranging, editing, song and video. Nate did the vast majority of the actual work with the technical processes. We both wrote the song and performed it, but being an electronic music song, he did the actual programming of the music but we both “wrote” it.

          This song is one of 9 tracks on the album. They’ll all sound different.

        2. Oh to answer your question about the video…

          500 clips taken by myself or Nate, edited by Nate. The exception is the run of historical videos going in reverse order of time (like a backwards Billy Joel “We Didn’t Start The Fire”). It runs back to the year my father was born (1923). He would have been 101 yesterday, the day we released the song. The sound clip over what is verse 4 is from “It’s A Wonderful Life”.

    1. I think we can add the adjective “aimless” to Debby the Turtle as she has no idea where’s she’s going or what she’s up to.

    1. Oh crap, I don’t like seeing even the 2% contours for tornadoes!
      Just don’t like it at all. Hopefully, the precent chance is low enough that NOTHING happens.

  10. Logan temperature up to 81, however the dew point has dropped
    from 73 down to 68. I’ll take whatever little bit I can get.

    Wind NNW at 8 mph

    That’s pretty light. I wonder if LOGAN goes to a sea breeze yet again???

  15. https://radar.weather.gov/region/uppermissvly/standard

    After the tstorm possibility with the cold front today, this is the next disturbance possibility for late Tuesday night.

    The models are still struggling with where a ribbon of rain sets up. Could be south coast, could be up to central MA

    Here’s what the 12z HRRR simulates for rain on the late Tuesday night event. I’ll wager a guess not every model will be this far north a mere 36-48 hrs out.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_024h-imp&rh=2024080512&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  16. As TK has in his forecast, the current OBs show W and NW sfc flow, so at least our low level winds today aren’t coming off that very warm water south of us. Nice to not have a 73-77F dp.

      1. Yes.

        This summer, it’s taken multiple dp boundaries to get to the truly dry stuff.

        I feel like on a few, if not multiple occasions, the dry air has needed multiple pushes/boundaries to get in here.

        Most cool fronts have sagged thru on WSW or SW flow aloft, we haven’t really gotten a deep change to NW flow aloft that drives a cold front and it’s truly dry air thru.

    1. The 12z NAM is way further north on its 00z run for significant rain Tuesday night.

      1+ inch contour at or just past Portland, ME west to Concord, NH

    1. That stuff moves straight E across far NNE.
      What happens later will be developing over the next few hours, but I don’t think much happens in the WHW forecast area until sunset or later.

  20. I see some nicer dew points to our N & W like 64-66.
    Still humid, but MUCH better than the 70-75 dps we’ve been seeing!!!! Let’s get it in here!!!!

  24. We’re going to be needing the ensembles all the way to hour 0. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    This bodes so well for tracking snowstorms or not snowstorms in the medium range, doesn’t it?

    You know, run to run consistency 🙂 🙂 🙂

  25. The GFS scenario playing out on its 12z.

    I have no idea if that is what will happen.

    But if we use what has happened this summer, it’s very believable with the dominance of the western Atlantic ridge/bermuda high.

    Debby winds down wind wise in the southeast, but its remnant moisture combined with the ridge sending in moisture off the Atlantic streams up the coast and lasts until it gets swept out by an approaching trof.

        1. Well, at least so far, a consistent theme.

          I have no idea if it’s the correct theme, but it looks so far, like one of the better consistent runs I feel I’ve seen.

          Watch, the euro will have something utterly different.

  28. Economists have a term called overshooting, which describes excessive fluctuation (volatility) of the nominal exchange rate (of a currency) in response to a change in the monetary supply. It can also apply to stock markets. Today’s overreaction is Exhibit A. Because people’s behavior (their psychology) is involved, it’s difficult to pinpoint or predict where the dependent variable will wind up. Behavior often exhibits irrational exuberance or gloom, depending on the mood.

    With weather predictions there are spaghetti charts representing the wide variety of paths storms can take.

    Economics has nothing remotely close to meteorological `precision.’ Don’t ever believe an economist or investor about precisely where the stock market or economy is headed. He/she doesn’t know and, frankly, your guess is almost as good as his/hers.

    Moral of the story: Believe a meteorologist’s forecasts more than you place faith in an economist’s predictions.

    Though I am an economist, the `science’ I operate in was once called “dismal” due to its extraordinarily poor predictive power.

    On the other hand, economists can explain things well, which I think sets up apart from other social scientists.

    1. Today’s Dow was probably never down anything more than 2.5%. I saw headlines reading Markets Meltdown.

    2. Still seeing headlines about a “rainy week”. No, not really.

      Dry daylight today.

      Dry about 75% of daylight Tuesday.

      Dry about 50% of daylight Wednesday.

      Thursday/Friday, probably dry over 50% of that 48 hour period.

      Not a rainy week, actually.

  30. The 12z suite, as the euro is in line with the other 12z models, suddenly has this deeper, closed low in central Canada mid week, which downstream, encourages the west Atlantic ridge to build west. The flow is either SSW or SW aloft from southern FL to northern England.

    Maybe the piece of energy for the central Canada closed low came in off the pacific or down from the arctic today into an area better sampled by weather balloons and that’s why the models are reading it better and are much more consistent ……

  31. Today a little better agreement on the general idea from 3 major global models. Does this mean this is the way it’s going? Not for sure, but a little more weight on the “non-buried”, “more progressive” solution. Will follow to see if this idea continues.

    It would be quite different from the scenario I leaned toward in my discussion.

      1. It’s definitely notable to have seen the 3 have a general agreeing idea (with obvious detail differences), but again it’s only one run they’ve done this operationally, so it’s key to see a couple more to really see this as a true trend.

    1. Most places stay under 90 today.
      I figured if anybody broke 90 today it’d be Taunton or an interior Merrimack / Nashoba Valley location or two or three.

      1. Thanks, TK

        89 here in Taunton now. 90 earlier. It was 92/68 at the East Taunton airport at 2.

  36. Down to 89 from 90. 70 DP.

    Internet has been out all day in area. I spent 2+ hrs on hold and was told it’s my system so a tech would be out tomorrow pm. 30 minutes later I got a txt saying our area was out. Surprised the tech I spoke to didn’t know this

  37. Any car people here? My car phone is 1.25 slow approx. would a bad battery cause that?? Or am I just having a bad day

    2. Looks relatively weak, but obviously some damage.

      These are the types of tornadoes that were often missed before 88D and its improvements.

      Between that and everybody having a video camera at their fingertips, we don’t miss them anymore.

      1. Eric or Pete tweeted something about that a couple of days ago. Three of three I emailed got back to me.

    1. I don’t like that they term it a surprise tornado.

      Makes it sound like the NWS had no idea any severe weather was possible.

        1. I am pretty sure there was a severe t-storm warning out for it. I’ll check with my archive guy on that.

  42. Since media so often focuses negative, I will do some positive focusing regarding the weather.

    The swath of rain coming up late tonight / tomorrow morning will be somewhat beneficial for areas of northern MA and southern NH that have been classified in abnormally dry to moderate drought recently. 🙂

    The media spends so much time making it seem like virtually all weather that’s not part of a top 10 day is somehow “bad” or “negative”, and that’s just plain incorrect. So here I am to bring a little more balance to it, not that they care. 😉

    They’re in it for ratings, I’m in it for truth. 🙂

  43. 1. Beautiful night at Fenway. Steve Miller Band just finished a terrific set. Journey is up in about half an hour, Def Leppard is the headliner later.

    2. Had 1.55″ from yesterday’s activity.

    3. Haven’t looked at much today weather-wise. Wrote my blog after getting home from Gillette at 2:15. Worst traffic I have ever experienced leaving Gillette by far. Metallica was amazing again, but I lost my phone when we had to evacuate the stands for the storms. Spent the morning/early afternoon today buying and setting up my new one. Used “Find My Phone” for Android and the one I lost is in a house in downtown Fall River. So I did a remote factory reset to wipe it completely. People suck.

    2. People do indeed suck. We got lucky one time when Nate first had a phone he left it in the bathroom at Hampton Beach and we actually had somebody return it. That doesn’t always happen…

  45. Got internet back so coild watch yiur video. It’s terrific. Love rhe graphics with thre words. And captured you and son at the end. Are the voices just yours and his?

    1. They are us, yes.

      We sing together the choruses (which are shown in capital letters).

      The verses are both of us but singing different words, sometimes crossing syllables. His vocals are the words on the lower left. My vocals are the words on the upper right.

        1. Enjoy 🙂

          This song is part of a bigger story about a person’s initial descent into anger and chaos, their reclamation through a musical journey inspired by my father’s lifetime, and their re-emergence as a new person. This story is the album “F&S” which we will release upon its completion.

          1. What a special story to share. Knowing the background makes the song that much more special ❤️

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