Tuesday August 6 2024 Forecast (8:25AM)

74 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)

We’ve flipped to a cooler regime for a while, saying goodbye to the heat with the arrival of a cold front and shower activity early this morning. Temperatures will be running below seasonal normals now for a few days, most noticeable today and Wednesday. While dew points are down over the often-70-or-higher readings we’ve had recently, they will still be in the 60+ degree range much of the time through midweek, so it’s still “humid” by definition, but not as uncomfortable with the lower dew point readings combined with cooler air. Along with this though we have some unsettled weather, with 2 main areas of showers, one coming through this morning, and another later tonight into Wednesday morning. We can get some breaks of sun, especially north of I-90, this afternoon, and a little bit more substantial clearing from northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon and night as we get a push of drier air from Canadian high pressure. This small bubble of high pressure is going to deliver a decent weather day Thursday with more sun and fairly comfortable air, though clouds will already be making a comeback from south to north during the afternoon and evening. These clouds are associated with what will be the remains of Debby, which came ashore as a category 1 hurricane in northwestern Florida and is currently causing flooding rainfall in the Southeast (Georgia / Carolinas) as a tropical storm. On yesterday’s discussion, written early in the day, I leaned toward a scenario that would keep Debby meandering around that area while it weakened from a tropical storm to a tropical depression, the full impact not felt up here until later in the coming weekend, but shortly thereafter I saw a quick convergence of most reliable guidance toward the other main scenario on the table, and have continued to see that since, so with that overwhelming forecast evidence the scenario described today is different, and has a profound impact on the forecast for later this week. Current thinking is that we’ll have 2 “arms” of moisture come through as Debby weakens to a depression, transitions to non-tropical, and accelerates north then northeast, probably even more quickly than the current NHC forecast indicates. This would bring us a showery episode on Friday, probably as early as pre-dawn and maybe for several hours into the day before we broke into a tropical air mass with just scattered showers. Then as the low center that was Debby accelerates northeastward, passing northwest of the WHW forecast area, we’d get into a band of heavier showers and embedded thunderstorms Friday night into part of Saturday, which would have an abrupt shut-off as the system pulled through and started to accelerate away. This acceleration may actually lead to fair weather for the majority of Saturday, but that is not quite certain yet (at day 5).

TODAY: Overcast with showers and patchy fog likely morning to midday. Thinning clouds with partial sun especially north of I-90 in the afternoon. Thickening clouds across the region again west to east by the end of the day. Highs 70-77. Dew point 70+ early then lowering gradually into the 60s. Wind variable mainly N to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers return from west to east, may be heaviest south of I-90 including embedded thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog dissipating and showers ending in the morning. Thinning / breaking clouds in the afternoon with some sun. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH, becoming variable late in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Widespread showers arrive south to north. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, most widespread morning to midday. Areas of fog morning. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely, potentially heavy, including a chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point 68+. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with showers / downpours and a chance of thunderstorms morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 75-82, occurring late. Dew point 70+ morning, falling to 60s afternoon. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to SW.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)

Larger scale pattern puts a low amplitude trough over the Northeast with a general westerly air flow, surface high pressure in the Great Lakes and low pressure in eastern Canada. A few days can see diurnal shower development (August 12-14 most likely) but for the most part this looks like a fairly dry pattern with temperatures averaging a little below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)

Temperatures run near to a little below normal with a couple of episodes of unsettled weather in an otherwise mostly quiet pattern.

74 thoughts on “Tuesday August 6 2024 Forecast (8:25AM)”

        1. You’re very welcome. I’m hearing a potential tornado destroyed a home on isle of palms. It’s a block from the home my daughter and family rent. I’m not hearing any injuries thankfully.

  4. Thanks TK! High DP of 73 on my morning run at 7am as the high humidity hangs on along the South Coast, Rain taking forever to get here.

    1. That’s because the main area was moving through as it was expected to do this morning. 🙂

      It quits once it moves off to the east in the next hour…

      1. Well, it lasted too long for me and WRECKED a morning of fishing I had planned. Just my luck. I think it is a message trying to tell me that I am simply too old to be going out fishing by myself. 🙂

      1. We’ve been on the short stuck too but today not so much. 0.20 here but 0.41 in another area of sutton

  6. Everything going as expected.

    Showery this morning.
    Drier afternoon but limited clearing – maybe none for some areas.

    Round 2 tonight / early Wednesday may be heaviest South Coast.

    All of this was well forecast by medium range guidance several days ago when it looked like we’d put a frontal boundary through the region but hang it up just to the south, putting us on the cool side but leaving the region vulnerable to unsettled weather at times but not “rain all week” as some weather apps mislead some to believe. 🙂

  9. Thanks, TK.

    Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, has been selected as Harris’s running mate. We’ve had 2 Minnesotan VPs in the not-so-distant past: Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale. Walz strikes me as being of that mold. Here he and his daughter, Hope, are at the state fair (it’s a great brief clip): https://x.com/GovTimWalz/status/1698761196730540472

    1. Thanks JPD. Been following that. He wasn’t one of my favorites (mark and Pete) but she knows far more than I. I do like what I read about him.

  11. 2 quick questions: how much rain do you expect over the next day in the Natick area? Second do you have an early estimate for the remnants from Debby? I should have known just when I was going to stop mowing the lawn weekly. Thanks

  15. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/04L_intensity_latest.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/04L_tracks_latest.png

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/094141.shtml?cone#contents

    There are subtle signs in all 3 that show some jet stream/energy interaction that could add a little punch to extra tropical Debbie.

    At hr 108 on the intensity map, can see hints of a slight tick up at hr 108, right when it would be passing overhead and clearly the NHC has an extra tropical S east of us.

    This can be a positive outcome for us if this little uptick happens after it’s past us, as we’ll get some gusty NW winds driving a real push of dry air through.

    If it happens overhead or the process begins just SW of us though, it could make the S and SW winds a little more feisty, maybe increase a severe wx threat and could increase intensity of rain bands further, wherever they set up.

    I’m looking forward to watching the models take on this.

        1. Scroll down just a bit and look towards the right center on the columns and you’ll see 24 hr, 6hr and maybe 3hr rain totals.

    2. Where did you find this, Tom? It frustrates me that Nws site gives precip total for some areas and not for others.

      Thank you!!

      1. Remember the OBs link SAK posted on here maybe a year to 18 months ago?

        That’s the one I still use now.

        2. Thank you. I do remember. I have been using it since SAK posted maybe over a year ago. I have my closest station memorized to the point I can go right to it

          1. Ah ha. I see what I was doing. I assumed they’d carry the 12 hr total to the top of the column. And we all know what Felix said about assuming.

  18. There are 2 things I disagree with NHC on with their latest update.

    1) Debby will not be a tropical storm as far into NC as they have it. It’ll be a TD, but they’ll probably still call it a TS. I’ll call that as I see it at the time, but I’m pretty confident they’ll need to change that.

    2) Their final position (2AM Sunday) needs to be pushed about 300 miles further northeast. They virtually always underestimate acceleration.

  19. JP Dave, your favorite ICON model (just kidding!) moves the remnants of Debby so fast they are out of here by about 12z Saturday.

    Not out of the question, actually.

    Once we see this being the scenario, it’s vastly faster than the one I was leaning toward yesterday. Basically one extreme to the other. There’s not a lot of middle ground when you’re talking about 2 most likely scenarios, one that buries the storm and one that ejects it much more quickly.

    1. SC definitely the bullseye, but some big amounts in surrounding areas as well.

      Another example that you don’t need a powerful storm t get big rains.

      I remember a tropical depression back in the 1980s (forget which one) that produced over 20 inches of rain in parts of that area.

      1. No question. I’ve seen numbers from close by areas. As you know SC holds a very special place in our hearts and we know the area so well that it strikes a cord.

    2. IMO, GFS is too slow with sfc low.
      The reason: A bad position forecast, bringing the low all the way back into GA before turning it back to the north, and therefore the forecast ends up off by 6+ hours for its timing on Saturday.

      1. The euro op run is much quicker once the remnants get further north in latitude.

        Euro drops to 996mb again in northern New England.

        1. This is a more realistic representation of what I think will happen.

          NHC makes the same errors time and time again, and one of their biggest ones is very poor forecast timing on acceleration. You can go back and look at case after case after case where they have to adjust their timing for recurving systems (both over sea and over land) for having been too slow.

  22. The NW wind on the back side of Debbie under sunny skies is sending very high heat to the gulf in the panhandle of Fl points westward.

    It’s 100F in Pensacola Fl and 99F in Biloxi, MS just to name a few examples.

    1. This is pretty typical for the amount of subsidence that takes place behind these things. It’s often accompanied by high heat, especially down there.

  23. Debby’s track seems to be moving farther west which pushes heavier rain west as well. Do you think this is just bouncing around or a lasting trend?

    1. It’s a minor adjustment and doesn’t change much.

      We’re not going to get an insane rain event from this thing.

      Heavy rain for a good part of the region, yes, but nothing we haven’t seen many, many times before.

  24. I need to correct NHC again (sigh).

    Debby is not tropical anymore. And they’re going to have to limit their intensification on their forecast. It’s not going to restrengthen to what they have it going back to. Actually, they should just declare it post-tropical and let the regional NWS offices take over from here. Was just talking to 2 colleagues and they agree with me 100%.

    I think it’s “weather politics”. If it was offshore, it’d be declared PT and kicked to the curb. But because it’s interacting with land they need to keep it declared tropical and with a name. I thought NHC was beyond this with the new director, but I guess not. Sadly, I’m not wrong here. Wish I was, but this is 100% spot on. It’s sad this happens. REAL science please! No kissing the butts of insurance companies. Sad.

    1. Did you write to them? If you have an address. I’m happy to write. Maybe others here will also?

      1. I did last year. No reply.
        But they did admit to doing this in a statement to somebody (wish I could find that).
        I just think it’s sad they’d even consider it in the first place.

        We should be getting actual data, not made up stuff.

        Weather shouldn’t be scripted like pro wrestling. 😉

        Maybe I’ll write to them again. 🙂

        Not now though. I am making a forecast for my son in NJ regarding the post-tropical remains of Debby. 🙂

        1. Does the classification of the system have any bearing on financial assistance for folks in the path?

  25. GFS is getting a little closer to the right idea for Saturday, but is still 8 to 12 hours too slow. It’ll get there! I have faith! (maybe) 😉

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