Wednesday August 7 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)

52 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)

Some quick weather changes are coming up for us over the next several days, and while there is some unsettled weather involved in that, there will also be periods of much nicer weather, so remember not to focus on the rain drops icon that shows up on your weather app that tries to fool you into thinking it’s going to rain every day forever. 😉 This is how it really unfolds in our region. First, the wave of low pressure that delivered a swath of decent rain to the region overnight departs this morning and midday, with a drying trend during the day. The most complete drying will take place north of I-90 where some sunshine will appear midday and afternoon. A bubble of high pressure across southeastern Canada will keep our weather fair into Thursday, but during the day we’ll see an advance of high to mid level clouds associated with the moisture from what was formerly Debby. This system is already post tropical, but has not been declared post tropical by NHC yet. Regardless, it still contains a decent amount of moisture and we’ll hear from some of it, but the track of the system is going to take the bulk of that to our west on Friday, with just tropical showers in our region, following a broken band of rain Thursday night which leads much more humid air back into the region. One final band of heavier showers and possible thunderstorms will then cross the region Friday night and early Saturday as the remnant low accelerates by to our northwest, heading for southeastern Canada. This drags drier air into our region by midday Saturday, salvaging the majority of the weekend. Gusty winds that develop on Friday will also continue into Saturday as they shift from southeast to southwest, then settle down later Saturday. Except a picturesque blue sky mixed with fair weather clouds on Sunday, with pleasant air, warm but manageable humidity and a nice breeze that isn’t too strong.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy start with any showers ending and patchy fog dissipating. Clouds hang on South Coast while sun appears to the north. Highs 68-75, coolest immediate coast. Dew point 60+. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point 55+. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine gives way to clouds south to north during the day. Highs 73-80, warmest inland. Dew point near 60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive south to north. Areas of fog develop. Lows 63-70. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers with scattered downpours too. Fog patches early. Highs 72-79. Dew point rising over 70. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers becoming more widespread including downpours and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73 with matching dew points. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY: Starts cloudy with widespread showers, then rapid clearing southwest to northeast by late morning with sun and passing clouds midday on. Highs 75-82, occurring late-day. Dew point 70+ early, then falling into 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 80-87. Dew point near 60. Wind 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)

Next week’s large scale pattern is weak trough Northeast with westerly flow aloft. Other than a weak disturbance passing by about August 13 with a possible shower, it looks like a dry pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)

Temperatures run near to a little below normal with a couple of episodes of unsettled weather in a continued quiet pattern with a westerly flow dominant.

52 thoughts on “Wednesday August 7 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    I am happy that so far I am wrong in my Red Sox prediction. You and SAK are right. Of course, a long way to go. But winning against a key competitor on the road is important.

    The poor White Sox may go down as the worst team ever. But they broke a 21 game losing streak.

    This person summed it up nicely: https://x.com/JimJammers24/status/1821138189286793468

  2. Thank you TK. So much for my idea of climbing in the Berkshires on Saturday AM … weather and trail conditions … ugh.

    1. I actually think you can keep that plan.

      Should be rain-free, a gusty breeze, a sun/cloud mix, and drying out.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    My only concern with the remains of Debby is the low probability of tornadic activity with any stronger cells. Jeremy Reiner mentioned that possibility last night. Other than that ho-hum.

    re: Jeremy Reiner
    Trying different channels for news. Getting SICK and TIRED of the constant PROPAGANDA being spewed on the various local stations!!

    1. This will be a set-up (quite common) with low level wind shear that can create the type of low level, short-lived tornadoes that pre-improved 88D used to miss.

      I think such activity will be very isolated.

      1. Oh, I figured that and any if they do occur would be relatively weak as in EF-0 or EF-1 and rarely an EF-2 but not likely anything more.

    1. Should be dry most of the day.

      NWS still carries rain chances through the day and a shower chance into the evening. This will not verify. They’ll adjust it, just like NHC had to adjust their timing on the forecast track of the post tropical remains of Debby that they still call tropical. 🙂

  7. Debby has now been post tropical for about 20 hours, despite still being called a tropical storm by NHC.

    There’s a broad convection free center with broken moderate to borderline deep convection well away from the center (aka showers and thunderstorms around a no longer tropical low, aka a regular low pressure area).

    Still plenty of moisture that rooted from the tropics associated with it, but that doesn’t mean it’s a tropical cyclone anymore. (It has to fit the definition, and it doesn’t.)

    Anyway, confident on the timing up this way now.

    Most plans this weekend in the WHW forecast area should be a go.

    1. Last night’s 11pm discussion even admitted that it looked “somewhat subtropical”, but the advisories roll on….

      1. I just don’t get it.
        When did insurance companies become more important than factual information?

  13. I guess my take away from Debbie is …… how in the medium range, days 5-8, the models severely underestimated the Bermuda High strength.

    5-8 days out, remember the model runs with the PREs, but with Debbie itself moving out southeast of us ?

    I’m looking at the models now and they have a collapse of the Bermuda high for 10-14 days.

    I am highly skeptical. Maybe a handful of days ….. and this is important getting deeper into August.

    1. Both the GFS and ECMWF Ensemble means show the Bermuda High retreating to the east in a week or so and a trof setting up along the East Coast or a little farther east. This matches up well with the near to below normal temperatures that the Ensembles are forecasting.

      1. Thanks SAK.

        And I agree with the ensembles and the op runs for a handful of days out into the middle of next week.

        I guess I’m just wondering out loud if a displaced to the east Bermuda high continues much after that. 🙂

  15. I like that the Patriots did not push for Aiyuk, he was asking for way to much. Patriots need to repay Judon & keep the Patriots defense where its been in the top 5. On offense been hearing good things about the recievers and the qbs, the problem like its been the past 3 years is the oline. They should be fighting for a OT not a wide receiver.

    I don’t know what is going on with the models but they are not doing well when it comes to the tropics.

    1. Judon has a contract for this year. He should honor it. If he wants another one, prove that he’s worth it. He’s 32 and missed most of last year with an injury. That’s why the Pats don’t want to give him a long-term extension.

      Do they need help on the O-line? Yes. But they absolutely need a #1 WR, which Aiyuk is. Half the WR they have right now would be on other team’s practice squads and not the regular roster. None of them are a true #1 WR, and likely none of them are a true #2 WR either.

  16. I was on the way to do my brother’s laundry and caught a WBZ anchor talking about the upcoming weather, “the weekend washout” (wrong), from the “tropical storm that was going to pass over Boston” (wrong), but there was a chance that it might slip out to sea and miss the region (ouch!) ……..

    That’s ………….. really bad. Thanks iHeartradio for destroying what used to be a great station.

    1. So much wrong there…

      Weekend Washout? It’s over by just after sunrise Saturday. Weekend looks FABULOUS.

      Tropical storm? No, it’s been non-tropical for 24 hours, but I’ll give them this one as a freebie because they are getting their info from NHC who has been calling it tropical for a full day since it was no longer, but passing over Boston and may slip out to sea? Sorry, but the track of the non-tropical remnant low will be a few hundred miles WEST of Boston. That’s definitely not over Boston and most certainly not “out to sea”.

      #WeNeedAMediaReboot 😉

      1. I chuckled when, a few days ago, I listened to the article on yellow journalism …that was in the late 19th century. Ive mentioned here many time journalism during Jefferson and Adams presidency. Mostly driven by a VP who thought he should be P. It ain’t going away.

        Ever.

        And it will get worse with social media. I have gotten pretty good at either moving away from bias news sources or just ignoring or blocking them. Reacting to them serves no purpose other than to raise a persons BP. I skip most no matter where they appear. I definitely am a work in progress or I wouldn’t be responding now.

        1. Definitely to get worse before any hope it improves.

          I don’t even let it really get me too fired up anymore. It’s becoming more and more comedic. And where applicable I give people corrected weather-related information. 🙂

      1. They often don’t go to the WBZ meteorologists on the radio lately. I found that was useful. They do use AccuWeather, which isn’t great, but is better than an anchor making it up on on the fly. 😉

        1. Yup.

          The ‘happy talk’ transition is usually comical.

          I think the Tv anchors, perhaps the radio anchors use the 2-3 min weather segments as breaks, they aren’t paying attention and the transition back gets a weather response from them that doesn’t tie in to literally what the metorologist just said.

          1. 100% .. many times I have heard them say something completely different than what was just reported by the actual forecaster. If I was management, I’d be all over that.

  17. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024080712&fh=150&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024080712&fh=174&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Higher latitude, Canada Omega Block around day 7 and we are perfectly positioned to be mild to warm with lower humidity and cool to mild nights because of it.

    I’m believing out to here.

    I’ll just need to see in 3-5 days, what lies beyond this. (Starting around day 8 and beyond)

  20. Thanks, TK.

    Is Saturday evening on Nantucket looking good, with ferry over and back before and after? Thank you.

  22. 18z 12 km NAM is likely in error with that little extra low pressure wave on the trough line as it goes by Saturday morning. This means the NAM’s timing is likely a few hours too slow. This should correct on the next couple runs.

  23. NHC’s 5PM update keeps Debby as a “tropical storm” until 2PM tomorrow, 48 hours after it was no longer tropical.

    I hope they can give me a good reason why they chose to do that (even though I know it). I am not going to hold my breath on them answering the email.

    Disappointing. That’s not meteorological incompetence, it’s freaking “politics”. BLEH!

    1. Still not as comical as the cold core low sitting under an upper-low south of Nova Scotia that they called tropical a couple of years ago.

      2. I remember that one, no idea what they were thinking.

        A very pleasant 57 at 4:30 AM. I am loving it.

        1. Yes, summer `broke’ early this year. And it’s more of a sustained break than we usually get. Obviously, there’s still plenty of summer left. Warm to hot conditions, as well as high levels of humidity, will return. But this is the August break that signals change. Upper 40s around Great Falls, Montana, early this morning, Montana. Weather will warm up to 70F today and mid 80s next week. But signs of change are in the air.

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