Thursday August 8 2024 Forecast (8:13AM)

76 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)

Since what was Debby is now a regular low pressure area, it will act very much like one as it passes through the Northeast in the way it impacts our weather today through Saturday. What’s become a warm front will approach today and tonight with an increase in clouds from south to north (more sun north today as dry air holds the clouds at bay for several hours), and a few showers push northward into the region, but most of them struggle to survive drier air in place, with most of them occurring tonight. Friday, we find ourselves in the warm sector with a muggy flow of warmer air on a southeast to south wind, along with scattered showers. The low center passes west and north of our region Friday night and early Saturday, dragging a cold front through here with a more solid band of showers and possible thunderstorms Friday night to pre-dawn Saturday. This is when the heaviest rain will occur, but it will be so brief in duration that most amounts will fall shy of 1 inch, and it will move so quickly out of here that we have a great weekend ahead with a westerly air flow dominating. In typical summertime fashion, there’s not a lot of cooling to take place right behind what is now a “cold front”, so Saturday will be quite a warm day, but with lowering humidity. Sunday will be a pleasant summer day, warm, not humid, with sun but some fair weather clouds popping up during the day. Monday’s weather looks fair with a continued dry westerly flow.

TODAY: Most sun north and less sun south much of day, before clouds spread north later. Sprinkles of light rain mainly west of Boston late day. Highs 73-80, warmest inland. Dew point near 60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Patchy fog forms. Lows 63-70. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers with scattered downpours too. Fog patches early. Highs 72-79. Dew point rising over 70. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal locations.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers becoming more widespread including downpours and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73 with matching dew points. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY: Cloud/sun mix morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 80-87. Dew point slowly lowering through 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point sub-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)

Next week’s large scale pattern is weak trough Northeast with westerly flow aloft. Other than a weak disturbance passing by about August 13 with a possible shower, it is dry pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)

Temperatures somewhat variable but close to normal for the period. A couple shower / thunderstorm episodes possible but the overall pattern looks fairly quiet.

76 thoughts on “Thursday August 8 2024 Forecast (8:13AM)”

  5. Quick peak at the latest SREF very close with what areas the SPC is showing for the low tornado risk tomorrow evening.

  6. Thanks TK !

    Our eldest daughter had a head cold and tested positive for Covid late last weekend. She’s feeling better.

    Yours truly tested positive last night.

    I think this is my 2nd time since this all started.

    I can breathe perfectly and my lungs are great, but it’s quite a head cold I’m experiencing.

    I have a call into my Dr requesting paxlovid as that has worked wonders for my wife.

    Anyhow, I’ve had either 5 or 6 Covid shots, the most recent last October and am very thankful as I’m wondering what I might be going thru without.

    If you believe in the vaccinations and they are offered, stay vigilant to keep updating.

    2. This virus just won’t quit! Sorry you and your family have contracted covid.

      I won’t go into a store without my N95 mask, even IF I am the only one wearing a mask. I don’t give a crap what people think!
      I won’t eat in a restaurant, at least not until the numbers come down. I monitor the MWRA Sewerage outflow to see what the virus is and make decisions that way. We did go to a restaurant a few times when covid was at its lowest, but NOT now.

      Here is a link:

      https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm

      1. I do the exact same. I continue to use curbside pickup. Not only am I at high risk but I have a couple of grandkids who are and I’m with them regularly.

        1. Since the pandemic started, As far as I know, I have not
          yet contracted covid or at least shall I say I have never tested positive, There was one time where I thought I might have had it, but just did not test positive. Who knows.

          1. I think my 89 year old dad is in the same boat.

            Lives on his own, during that first year, we would do street visits, never coming within a long distance of him.

            I don’t think he’s ever tested positive for it, but as you say, who knows.

    1. Thank you both !

      She’s turned the corner. 🙂

      I’m trying to guage if my symptoms have bottomed out. My sore throat is improved but my head cold is worse.

  9. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024080712&fh=240&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024080800&fh=240&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Yesterday’s 12z vs last night’s 00z Euro ……

    So this is what I was kind of wondering about yesterday.

    Given its dominance this summer and what has happened with Debbie the last 3 days, I worry the late medium and long range projections on the models are going to vastly underestimate the return of the Bermuda high after a coming 4-7 day break.

    Is the 00z euro just a one off or is it the first early signal of that adjustment because the 00z is further west than the 12z

    Yes, this is a system that doesn’t exist yet, more talking about that Bermuda high.

      1. Thank you, Tom. I don’t understand it all but enough to get the gist. And even better to learn from

    2. TK and I had this conversation a week or two ago (I think I posted it on here), but this is what worried me. The pattern we’ve been in is conducive to threaten the East Coast, and all it would take was some minor tweaks to have everything in place to bring one up here.

      Historically, it’s still a tad early for one up here. Since 1851, 18 hurricanes have made landfall in New England/Long Island, and 15 of the 18 did so between August 19 and September 27. The 3 outside that range are:

      Belle 8/9/1976
      Storm #10 10/4/1869
      Storm #5 10/10/1894

      So, we’re entering our “2-month hurricane season” up here right now.

    2. Ahh you mean for the next tropical, which still looks to pass S&E of us, but getting too close for comfort.

        1. Indeed 🙂

          Already different though than 24-48 hrs ago when the models had the Atlantic ridge so far east for 10-14 days.

  14. Based on persistence this summer, what we saw with Debbie, I wonder once we’re 6 days from now or something like that, we’ll be seeing runs for 3-4 days out from that point where everything ends up retrograded west 300-400 miles of what it’s showing now, which could even put something tropical, if it comes about, into the Gulf of Mexico.

    1. It’s crazy how similar the 12z GFS and Euro are.m

      Sometimes they aren’t that similar at 72 hrs.

  19. August 18th – 25th is a week of very high, high tides and very low, low tides as we go through a full moon phase that is at perigee a day or 2 later.

    1. The 21st and 22nd early am high tides (midnight to 2am) are 11.5ft, which would take much to put them in flood stage in Boston.

    1. Warm front rain from the NON tropical low that has been non tropical for 3 days, formerly known as Debby. 🙂

      Yes folks, we have a REGULAR low coming through.

  29. News that makes you feel good.

    Just when you are hoping for some positive news ……it appears

    Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour was supposed to resume in Vienna tonight. Authorities discovered a terrorist plot and all Vienna concerts had to be cancelled.

    Today, Hundreds of swiftness took to the streets singing Taylor’s entire set, including Marjorie which she wrote as a tribute to her grandmother.

    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/taylor-swift-fans-sing-vienna-195802789.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACrk5XiDDV2TFeGd5qBFnxktFvJcwyjQSv1bUwMGCHco_stf3gQzZT01lEHg4LDT2uTSPZ620xQ-AL0jI4JyhoJwhBoKSTRdjPfk0ln9H-xnIJQy4XSd37G7WpviYtWxVxlp-qFuPoU7LTl0A5c43V2R7OPLGq976Dn53h0BKkx7

  30. Boston’s only running a +2.5F departure through July 31. Not excessively hot, but certainly warmer and less rainy than last summer.

    The upcoming pattern will shave quite a bit off that positive departure.

  31. Worldwide not so good. But this is the trend so I’m not surprised.

    Per esrth,org

    July 2024 saw a global average temperature of 16.91C. This was just 0.04C lower than the average temperature in July 2023, currently the hottest month on record. This makes last month both the second-warmest July and second-warmest month in recorded history.

    From Eric

    https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1820922518070251635?s=61

    In other news, July report is in from @bhobservatory. Another “Top 10” month in the books, as it was the 7th warmest July on record. Also the 4th most humid on record (by avg humidity). Summer has been the hottest on record to-date. Read more at bluehill.org #wbz

    1. Didn’t see anybody on TV in the last 2 days. No idea what anybody said since Tuesday night. 🙂

  33. Tom, you said your oldest is improving which is great news. How are you feeling tonight? Did you start paxlovid?

  34. Boston’s temperature was 10 degrees below normal yesterday with 1 heating degree day. Don’t see that too often in August. 😉

    No solid heat in sight for days, possibly weeks.

    CFS has been trending very cool for September as well.

    We haven’t seen a lot of that since the AMO has been positive.

  35. Thoughts on the Patriots though first preseason game
    1. Defense is still looking like the Patriots defense
    2. Offense that oline is a major issue and is what is going to keep this team from going where it could.
    3. I wish they didn’t have Zappe out there for so long, Out of the group he deserved to be out there showing what he got the least as we all know who he is. I was hoping to see a quarter per QB with Milton getting 1 1/2 with Zappe getting a Half.
    4. With that said I would like to see Maye and Milton more to see what they have in both of them
    5. Wide receivers where getting seperation
    6. They need to work on that zone run offense & figure out those tackles and do it quickly. If Milton ends up being good, the patriots shouls have gote OT in the first.

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