Friday August 9 2024 Forecast (8:01AM)

106 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)

The weather system that was once Debby will push through the region during the next 24 hours (by early Saturday morning). This results in a humid and unsettled day today, although rain coverage will not be that high until later tonight when a final band of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms pushes through with a trailing front from the low center as it passes by to our northwest and north. Prior to that we’ll have isolated to scattered showers, though a few can be heavy, and we’ll also see a pretty decent fog blanket to start the day today before that thins out and dissipates with some increase in wind. Any breaks of sun today will be limited and most likely to occur at some point this afternoon over eastern MA and RI. Of note, there’s a little bit of wind shear available in the lower levels of the atmosphere tonight as the heavier band of showers pushes through, and while the chance is better west of the WHW forecast area, there is a tiny shot at an isolated brief and relatively weak tornado in any stronger cell. All of the unsettled weather pushes offshore right about dawn on Saturday, setting our region up for a great summer weekend. It’ll take several hours for the wet ground to dry out Saturday, otherwise it’s to be a very nice day, warm with gradually lowering humidity and a nice breeze as well. Sunday’s weather will be pleasantly warm with low humidity and a sun/cloud mix. Heading into early next week, there’s a slight change in the forecast. A disturbance I was eyeing for the potential for a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday is going to be 24 hours faster than I thought a couple days ago, bringing that shower and thunderstorm chance Monday, with fair weather returning Tuesday.

TODAY: Foggy areas through mid morning, otherwise mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers including a few potential downpours. Highs 72-79 but may be a little cooler immediate South Coast and Cape Cod areas. Dew point 65+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH, increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers early-mid evening, more widespread showers and possible thunderstorms late evening and overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY: Clouds and showers linger Cape Cod into mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with a trend for more sun. Highs 80-87. Dew point lowers through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point sub-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A possible shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Lows 58-65. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)

Fair / dry weather midweek next week with a westerly air flow dominating. A little more troughing from the Great Lakes to the Northeast keeps major heat away but may add a few showers to the pattern later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)

Weak trough / westerly flow continues, with moderate temperatures and a few shower chances. No major heat indicated.

106 thoughts on “Friday August 9 2024 Forecast (8:01AM)”

  1. Looks like the upcoming pattern doesn’t favor any sustainable heat unless the Bermuda high builds back to the west northwest in about ten days.

    1. Not really seeing many signs of that, at least in the fashion it’d give us a heat blast.

      The summer so far (at Boston) is running about 2.8F warmer than the long term average, but the coming few weeks will cut that back quite a bit.

  4. On a sad note, World Legend golfer, Juan “Chi Chi” Rodriguez
    died yesterday at the age of 88.

    At a customer appreciation golf event hosted by AT&T back in the 80s, I was our company’s representative and had the pleasure of meeting Chi Chi and playing several holes of golf with him at New Seabury on the Cape. He was truly a very nice person for sure. Very warm and friendly and quite the character.

      1. Me as well. He was special.
        So many professional golfers are stuck up bleepity beeps.
        NOT him. 🙂

    3. What a special memory, JPD. And a very sad loss for the golfing world and the world as a whole. Or should it be hole.

      When kids were younger, we bought a parakeet. Mac in his typical humor said he didn’t think he’d be large enough come Thanksgiving dinner but hesitantly agreed it was ok to get one. The kids named him chi-chi jokingly so dad Wouldn’t serve him as an appetizer.

  5. DC under a tornado warning at the moment.

    Rapidly-moving rotating cell in a thin line.

    This is something we expected to see with the system that was once Debby.

    A weakened version of this can get into southwestern New England tonight where the chance of a few low level shear tornadoes is highest.

    I know I say this alot, but it’s important to note that these events are nothing new, but just caught by better observational tools than they were in the pre-88D days.

    There’s often an incorrect message delivered by media that we “get more tornadoes” now than we used to. No. We do not. We SEE more of them than we used to. HUGE difference.

  8. current dew point at New Haven is 79!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Those dew points are headed North!!!

    1. Won’t be seeing them that high in this area. 🙂

      I also think New Haven’s dp has been reading a bit high lately.

      1. Perhaps, surrounding obersvations have 73-75 which seem
        a bit more reasonable. Either waym YUCK!!!!!

        2. Yes, those are reasonable. But I’ve seen New Haven often consistently 2 degrees above everything around it.

          When I see that, it’s either a bad sensor, or a poor position (like at Boston – making their 4th most humid July – a silly stat IMO anyway – pretty useless). They moved the sensor closer to water so you can’t compare it to many previous years.

          There’s a reason why science uses certain controls and any changes should be noted. But nobody is going to tell you that little tidbit of info. They just throw #’s out without context.

  9. London will be having its hottest weekend of the summer – low to mid 80s – and 90F is possible on Monday. Certainly not unprecedented. I’ve been in London during its occasional hot days.

    Lucky for me, I fly to London Monday night, arrive on Tuesday. Still warm that day – around 80F – but a cooling trend will follow as normalcy returns: Mostly 70-73F during the day and low to mid 50s at night for most of my >2 week trip. Not much rain is in the forecast, but that of course can change.

    1. Destined to recurve to the North and then Northeast, BUT
      a long way to go. Who knows where it ends up

    2. That is making the assumption that the 40-60% chance that thing has of development over the next 7 days actually means 100%. 😉

      We should have a system in existence before we try to figure out its track. Can’t do it on model runs only. Models are not designed to forecast the track of a tropical system that hasn’t formed yet.

  12. Back to very quiet in the tropics.

    Atlantic: 1 system with 0% chance of development through 48 hours and about 50% chance of development through 7 days.

    Eastern Pacific: Nothing – all 4 junk systems dissipated. Just one weak disturbance over water south of Mexico with 10% chance of development over the next several days. This follows 2 records for the latest date on record without a named storm and latest date without a system of hurricane strength.

    Central Pacific: Nothing.

    Western Pacific: One typhoon east of Japan, just attained typhoon status, and will not strengthen that much while staying over water east of Japan, eventually losing tropical characteristics while curving to the northwest over northern Japan as a post-tropical system. The WPAC is off to one of its slowest starts to the season on record.

    Indian Ocean: Nothing.

    1. its the start of what many climate scientists have been saying will start to happen. The Atlantic will see an increase in activity while The Pacific sees a decrease. Goes with the parameters that will be more common in our warming climate.

  13. Thanks TK !

    Outside on the Covid corner 🙂 of the back deck.

    The wind has gone south and the oppressive stuff is back !!

    1. I can feel the dp creeping up here now as the fog starts to thin out. I love that tropical feel to the air. Might take a short walk around the neighbhood to enjoy it. 🙂

        1. Yes, I have started paxlovid.

          Got in 2 doses yesterday and then 1 this morning.

          Head cold is still strong but maybe a little bit improved.

          Tired.

          It’s been a much stronger cold than the one I got the first time I had it 3 years ago. That was a 24-36 hrs of sniffles.

          I’ve always taken Covid seriously and I’m still humbled by this set of symptoms. A good old fashioned kid cold that I haven’t had many of, as an adult.

  14. HRRR trend is just a tiny bit faster with the arrival of the main band of showers tonight.

    A lot of day / evening outdoor events tomorrow were prematurely postponed or cancelled again on 2-day forecasts or weather apps. Too bad. None of them had to be.

    Illuminations in Rockport actually listens to a set of actual meteorologists, and they knew better than to cancel their big event on Saturday. Its going to be one of the best days of the summer. 🙂

  16. https://radar.weather.gov/region/northeast/standard

    Northern VT has had 2 excessive rain events recently.

    But another area has been over the border in Canada, perhaps from Montreal to Sherbrooke, maybe even all the way to Quebec City.

    I feel like I’ve seen radars on a couple occasions this summer with all reds and yellows in torrential thunderstorms.

    Given the track, I’d assume they are in for 2-4, 3-5 inches of rain.

    When I go to Nova Scotia, I’m always calling up mm to inches conversions.

    1. There will be a swath of 3+ inches of rain heading from Upstate NY into Canada.

      VT will get off fairly easily this time, which they could use after coincidentally taking a couple of really solid events before that.

  17. Poor Carolinas, it was modeled, some vort max or disturbance came around the base of Debbie and ignited a couple line of training thunderstorms that dumped a ton of rain just west of Wilmington, NC and just north of Charleston, NC.

    1. I spoke to my Merrill lynch guy yesterday who is in Charleston. He’s on John’s island. Or maybe James. I get the two confused. It’s a mess down there.

    1. Still socked in with fog at Hampton Beach.

      Right call with yesterday being the beach day instead of today. 🙂

      Today is one of my favorite days. Mostly cloudy, breezy, muggy. There is a very comforting feeling when I stand out there in this. 🙂 I’d still enjoy the beach on a day like this. But the plan was for about 7 people, so I had to go with the majority liking, and I am CLEARLY NOT like most people. And ya know what? I like it…

  25. As it’s my job to share good news about weather and not just focus on the negative, I bring to you the fact that Debby’s remnants produced beneficial rainfall to help alleviate severe drought in the Shenandoah Valley and Allegheny Front regions.

    Main stream media will not report this because it’s not dramatic enough. So, I will. 🙂

  28. From the SPC would not be surprised to see a tornado watch at some point this afternoon for far western parts of SNE

    greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist
    this afternoon and into this evening from eastern
    Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across
    the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western
    Massachusetts, and western Connecticut.

  29. That 5% tornado chance now up for my area. Been having breaks of sun and winds gusting at times along with drizzle.

    1. Warm sector. Warm front went by a little while ago. Cold front comes through late tonight.

      Once a storm is no longer tropical, and we know it’s now been 3 days since this has been a tropical system, it regains fronts with time. This has most certainly done that. I’m in the warm sector in Woburn now too. 🙂

  31. Tornado Watch up for my area until 10pm tonight. Sun comes out a little bit of rain. Been rinsing and repeating that all day today. Of course a tropical feel.

  32. Mostly string like, thin showers in eastern areas, though an impressive one just went thru the Merrimack valley, just west of Lowell.

  35. Definition of tropical downpours:

    In the past 2 hours, I have had 8 separate rain showers that lasted a combined total of about 5 minutes. In that time, I have picked up 0.14″.

  37. Wasn’t sure how much I’d enjoy the first ever breakdancing competition at the summer olympics, but I very much have enjoyed it. 🙂

  38. I’m at barn where my granddaughter is cleaning stalls for the week. Breeze is awesome and cools noticeably when we have the sun showers.

  40. Looking at the line west of SNE no severe or tornado warnings as of now. There are some flash flood warnings with that line.

    1. Soon to be Ernesto? I can’t disagree with that statement more.

      It has a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a 50% chance over the next 7 days. That’s not “soon to be” anything.

      Not a responsible thing to say to call a threat for a system that hasn’t formed, especially one that far away and that far in the future if it does form. You just create extremely premature worry. I hate to criticize, but I’m disappointed.

      But before I solidify that, I’m going to find the broadcast and see what was actually said there.

  45. This is the latest from NHC. This is NOT soon to be Ernesto and not something we can call a threat to the East Coast … Ugh.

    “A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well
    to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands over the tropical
    Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. Any development of the
    wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it
    moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical
    Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for
    development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by
    early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or
    over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving
    generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the
    Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.”

  46. Judd Sirott will be the new play-by-play guy for the Bruins on NESN, with Andy Brickley.

    I am very pleased with this decision. 🙂

  47. Perseid Meteor Shower peak coming up!

    Sunday night / Monday night probably the 2 best nights and the conditions look mostly good! May be a few more clouds Monday night pending the timing of that trough passing through.

    If you can minimize light pollution you may see 50+ meteors per hour after midnight. 🙂

    1. I watch every year. They bring back memories of warching with Mac on his birthday (august 19). Have yet to see a meteor but love fhe memories. Thank you, Sir, for the reminder

  48. Nothing in the swath to our west looks spinny to me right now. So that’s good news.

  50. Cantore on maybe 98L

    https://x.com/jimcantore/status/1821898292177035460?s=61

    A strong tropical disturbance is working its way into the central Atlantic coming into sight around 12N 35W or the eastern side of this visible loop. It’s disorganized now, but guidance tries to develop this before it moves through the Lesser Antilles early to mid week with continued development after that. At present, a trough/ridge position off the east coast may influence where it goes eventually for late next week/weekend. As you can see we have a long way to watch it and much can change.

    NHC at 60% at the time of this tweet and it shouldn’t be too long before we get an invest. 98L I believe it would be.

  52. I saw the tiniest rotation above lasting 5 seconds. By tomorrow, someone will call it an F5.

  55. Alex Cora has been really good all year, in my opinion.

    I do think he made a mistake tonight taking out Tanner Houck after 82 pitches unless Houck had developed a blister or told him he was tired.

    It backfired too as the next pitcher came in and promptly gave up 4 runs.

  57. Tom. I just saw your response re paxlovid. Ugh on it being as nasty a cold as it it. I hope the pax kicks in very soon

  58. In terms of Invest 97L, it looks like its going to develop, the timing of that development will be a major aspect of overall path. It is way to early to say anything about possible impacts on the east coast of the US. I get frustrated honestly with how people just start talking about a storm possible path hitting the USA. This includes the radios and TV.
    In the Caribbean many of us are hoping for it to be a weak tropical depression or tropical storm, just something to take us down below the bleaching threshold like the last storm did for the Florida Keys ( the Florida keys dropped 5 degrees and well below the bleaching threshold which likely saved the lack luster 1 to 2% coral cover they have there). We also would like the 3 days of cooler temperatures lol. Its been boiling here.

    1. Matt it is Always great to hear from you. Thank you for this information. Prayers for the best for everyone and for our earth.

    2. They had a recent warm spell, but only slightly above average. Lighter wind will make it feel hotter.

      So far the temperature for meteorological summer at St. Thomas is only 0.1F above normal.

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