Saturday August 10 2024 Forecast (8:21AM)

118 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)

We enter mid August and are about to go into a quieter weather pattern. The last of the remains of what was once Hurricane / Tropical Storm Debby exits our region this morning with the last of the showers / downpours exiting Cape Ann and the NH Seacoast by 8:30 a.m. and Cape Cod by late morning. Otherwise we have fair weather to enjoy for this weekend. The warmest day will be today, which starts humid then dries out. Sunday will feature seasonably mild air with lower humidity. You’ll notice a hazy look to the sky both today and Sunday, and this is from a couple of surges of high altitude wildfire smoke that will be moving through the region. It does appear that the smoke will thin out Sunday evening to improve the viewing conditions for the Perseid meteor shower, which peaks after midnight Sunday night / Monday morning. A trough of low pressure swings through the region and may kick off a few showers on Monday, before we return to fair and pleasant weather heading toward midweek as a westerly air flow dominates.

TODAY: Clouds / showers exit eastern areas early morning (north) to mid morning (south), then sunshine with passing clouds remainder of the day. High altitude smoke. Highs 81-88. Dew point lowers into and through the 60s, into the upper 50s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts, relaxing during the day.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke thins with a clear sky otherwise. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Additional high altitude smoke. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point sub-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A possible shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Lows 58-65. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point in 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)

Fair/dry weather dominates through mid period before humidity and pop up shower/t-storm chances increase late period. No significant heat as we are in a pattern that features a westerly flow and a weak trough.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)

Weak trough / westerly flow continues, with moderate temperatures and a few shower chances. No major heat indicated.

118 thoughts on “Saturday August 10 2024 Forecast (8:21AM)”

  5. Thanks TK
    Next week looking to me to be the best week of the summer with a good amount of sunshine and comfortable levels of humidity. Open the windows and finally save money on the electric bill.

  10. This is the transition day when it comes to the humidity. After today a nice stretch with the humidity in check.

    1. Near to below 60 for several consecutive days starting tomorrow which is somewhat unusual for August. 🙂

      No major heat in sight either.

  11. The tropical disturbance out there is at 30% chance for development through 48 hours and 80% chance through 7 days.

    That’s better than yesterday, but we still don’t have a tropical cyclone, and therefore we cannot speculate much on any future threat to the East Coast.

    It probably will develop into a system, but with a much more immediate threat to the Caribbean. That’s where the focus would go first.

    #MeteorologyAtWork
    #HypeNotNeeded

    1. Watching the remainder of the Olympics stuff through closing ceremony (I have watched virtually every competition at least in highlight form if not fully). 🙂

      My Pyro Tour rolls on into Rockport tonight. They listened to us mets and did not cancel the big Illuminations festival that runs from late morning today through tonight’s fireworks display, and it’s one of the best of the year. 🙂

      My Pyro Tour was originally scheduled to go to Beverly tomorrow, but a unique opportunity has presented itself, and I have bad decisions based on weather apps to thank for it. Bellingham, 2 days in advance, moved their fireworks display scheduled for tonight to Sunday night off of bad weather info, but because of that, I get to see a display I never get to see, from a pyro company I seldom get to watch shows from. So I’m heading there Sunday evening. 🙂

      This is the THIRD time I have added a bonus display this season based on postponements which were not necessary, and were initiated by using the wrong source for weather. Hey, I’ll take it! 😉

  13. Thanks, TK.

    I must have sinned badly. I leave for London and they’re getting the hottest week of the year. My luck.

    1. That’ll teach you to put down the Red Sox! 😉

      Figures right? They’ve had a relatively cool 2024 up until now…

  14. While there are many factors that influence activity in tropical basins worldwide, one of the larger reasons for the lack of activity across the Pacific Ocean in recent months would be the overall tendency for La Nina to be dominant the last several years. There is a direct correlation here.

    Currently, ENSO is neutral, but there is an increasing probability that La Nina will redevelop between now and October, and an even higher probability that we’re heading for a La Nina winter of 2024-2025.

    More to come about this…

    An updated prediction was issued on August 8 for the Atlantic by NOAA and reduced the numbers slightly (a result of neutral conditions lasting deeper into the season than originally anticipated). I don’t think they lowered it enough, but they did drop it down a little bit.

    I still would not be surprised with a period of active tropical weather for the final 3 months of the hurricane season as we shift into a La Nina.

  15. TK, indeed London has had a relatively cool summer, consistently on the cool side for months. Most of Northwester Europe has been below normal in terms of temperature and above normal in terms of precipitation.

    But as I was telling my daughter a few weeks ago, even during cool summers there will be a warm spell at some point. And, I told her, it may just happen when Dad’s there just to toy with him (weather gods know I don’t like heat and humidity).

    Because I’ll be there for 18 days and things will cool off considerably, this presents some decisions on what clothes to pack.

  16. Dew points are NOT budging in Eastern MA. Still 72 at Logan and 73 at Norwood. GIMMIE A BREAK!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Eric showed a dewpoint simulated map last night around 6pm, I think it was …..

      Anyway, it showed and he talked that especially southeast Mass, the dps would be near 70F all day.

      The simulation even showed right after sunset, southeast Mass’ dps rising a degree or 2F and then the whoosh, as he likes to refer to it, happening around or just before midnight.

      I don’t know if that will apply to you in JP, but that is classic southeast Mass.

      Just a couple weeks ago, Logan’s dp was 54F and had been for hours and Marshfield’s and point se were 70F.

      That initial push dies around the Braintree split and then several hours later, it does charge SE.

      One of the weather intricacies of SE Mass I did not know about until moving here and experiencing it multiple times.

        1. The process is underway, but the drying takes place west to east.

          See current dp central MA.

          1. Central MA does me no good untiul it gets here. 🙂
            Central MA was drier at 8AM it is now going on 11 and still YUCK here! YCUK YUCK YUCK!!!!!

            DP still 70 even at Fitchburg

            1. I’m in central MA and I sit at a 70 DP. I think we have a dome around sutton that keeps DP high and rain out

  19. DP 70+ eastern MA, 60s central MA.
    That drying takes place west to east as the air mass enters the region … from west to east. 😉

    2. Let’s take this weather 101 a step further.

      Rain overnight. Dawn. Wet ground. Wet grass. Wet soil. Wet trees.

      Sun comes up, first thwarted by additional clouds and showers, then emerges at which time it starts to heat the wet land, evaporating that water, which during a process which takes several hours, the water has to pass through the air adjacent to the ground. This keeps the lowest levels humid.

      Eventually we may see the result of this process in the development of clouds. This is actually visible now here in the northwest suburbs as the sky is populated with many cumulus as of 10:40.

      Class dismissed. 🙂

  20. 0.80″ since midnight here, putting me at 3.47″ for the month. There’s a COOP across town, and their normal for the entire month of August is only 3.60″.

  21. There is hope. Fitchburg dp has now dropped to 66.
    Still 72 at Bedford, Logan, Lawrence and Beverly while it is
    73 at Norwood and Pawtucket.

  22. Per environment Canada, Montreal received 157 mm of rain yesterday which according to the mm to inch converter here is ………… 6.18 inches of rain.

    1. Thanks, Tom. I thought I had figured incorrectly when I came up with 6ish. Does that tend to be a dry area?

      How are you today? How is your family? Ace said at one point his dog got Covid. I was not sure if he was kidding., but I checked and animals can get it.

      1. I didn’t know that about dogs, but Artesia seems good 🙂

        The paxlovid has helped, starting late yesterday after the 4th dose. It has eased my sinus pressure, head cold, runny nose, all that good stuff.

        I still can’t taste much.

        The paxlovid has some side effects and for me, it’s upset my stomach a bit. But, I’ll take that trade. 6 more paxlovids to go, 2 each day.

        I’ve been in a mask around the house and largely living separate from my wife and daughters downstairs all week. They are all good, thank goodness !!

        1. Thank you, Tom. Good news for you. Prayers you continue to improve. And good news for your family also. Can you take a probiotic or even activia. I’m on my second round of antibiotics and both help my stomach. Although, one or both may interfere with the Paxlovid.

          1. Thanks. I hadn’t considered taking something for my stomach as it’s manageable, but if it gets worse, than yes.

      2. Other than a little cooler across all seasons, I think Montreal and that area of southeast Canada over a year sees a liquid equivalent of precipitation that’s fairly comparable to ours.

        They have had one wet summer, I think, as there’s been a couple other occasions where I have been looking at our regional radar and couldn’t help but notice, it looked like they were getting clobbered with clumps of thunderstorms.

        1. Thanks again, Tom. I must be getting used to large rain numbers as six inches didn’t seem like enough to set records. And clearly it is.

    1. Ongoing 🙂

      Definitely under 70 here. Can feel the drying taking place. I can even sense it by scent.

  34. Of course without an actual system, take everything with a grain of salt, but as the ensembles develop the system, the overwhelming consensus would be for a track WELL OFFSHORE off the East Coast.

  35. If you look at the vis sat loop over the last couple hours, the cumulus clouds are now generally where the dew points are highest. This goes along with what I wrote earlier in my “weather 101”. There are other factors helping determine where the clouds are too, but during the last few hours, that’s the main one.

    Sun + moist air / ground = rising air, condensing moisture, and cloud development.

  37. I have seen spaghetti for 98L. It certainly looks well off the east coast. On the other hand as TK said, it hasn’t formed so it might as well be one hundred days away.

    1. I’m many many runs away from putting any stock in any operational run of any model.

      Yes I look, but they don’t mean anything to me yet in an applied sense. 🙂

    1. I have it on. I’m live on 3 channels with the 4th one showing a reply of the men’s marathon that I already watched early this morning. 🙂

  39. I love how the weather service over there issues a “moderate warning” for high temperature. They keep their drama in their arts, not their media. Yes it’s going to be very warm, so just keep that in mind if you’re out and about.

    They are actually going to heat up for 2 days, but it’s short-lived. High temps about 33C Sunday and about 39C Monday. That’ll trigger more than “moderate warnings” for heat. But after they they come right back to seasonable.

    But the weather looks very nice and dry for the closing ceremony on Sunday.

  41. The dew point is just entering the upper 50s in western MA. The process continues …….. Boston will go below 60 tonight.

  44. Any soccer fans notice that the officials have been adding more stoppage time than usual to the matches during the Olympic tournament?

      1. I hadn’t been paying really close attention in the months just before, but I noticed a difference definitely here. Interesting that it started before. Wonder if there’s a specific reason.

      1. 🙂

        The women were (and usually are) far more entertaining to watch than the men. Been like that for decades actually. 🙂

        I used to love taking my daughter to the pro soccer games for the league that existed for several years (Boston Breakers, Kristine Lilly). Those were fun games. They played their home games at Nickerson Field.

        And we went to one championship game between the Atlanta Beat and Bay Area CyberRays at the old Sullivan Stadium. 🙂 It was in 2001 and in the game they played to a 3-3 tie after regulation and 2 overtimes, and then the CyberRays won 4-2 in a shoot-out. We were rooting for them in the game. My daughter was thrilled. 🙂 Mia Hamm was her favorite player at the time, and she played for the Washington Freedom.

        1. Nice !

          I agree !!

          I’ve watched the women’s national team consistently since the late 90s. They have played at such a high level and have been much more of a championship team contender than the men.

          I think they have the next generational superstar in Trinity Rodman and a lot of other strong, young players and a very successful, innovative new head coach in Emma Hayes.

            1. The coach, Emma, is among the best. She has the team simultaneously playing as friends and teammates.

  46. For invest 98L, if it gets a bit more organized than currently predicted, it could take advantage of that rather favorable diffluent upper atmosphere over the NE Caribbean hopefully not and its a tropical depression or tropical storm over the NE Caribbean like the EPS/GEFS and spagetti models are showing.

        2. ABC news already hyping the next east coast threat …
          Trying to avoid most media but someone sent that one to me.

  49. Surprisingly my electric bill was $40 less for July than June. Still over $800 but I was thinking it’d be closer to $1000. In the August of old, it wasn’t unusual to see a nighttime temp of 40 or even 30. I went thru east Boston average temps for August. They were consistently mid 60s …. if Wunderground is accurate. But they started increasing in the mid 90s. Is it too much to wish for an August of old?

    1. Boston’s average low temp for August is 66.
      The all time record low is 46.
      Low temps below 50 at Boston have only occurred about 10 times since 1872.

      I’ve found Weather Underground info is not as good as it once was. Not sure what happened there.

      1. Can you share a source please. Although I know from experience there were august nights that our young ones wore blanket sleepers to bed on more than one occasion and we wore sweatshirts when at Hum in the 90s. I bought a new one every year. We deliberately scheduled our vacation in august because it is cooler

        These were wunder average temps for august.

        1982 66.96
        1983 67.40
        1984 69.14
        1985 66.68
        1986 64.79
        1987 66.45
        1988 68.95
        1989 63.67
        1990 64.82
        1991 67.26
        1992 69.85
        1993 65.25
        1994 66.41
        1995 67.87

        1. I wonder if wunder isn’t as good any more if these were recorded in a time when they were reliable.

          1. Either way I’m sure you are correct about 30s isn’t accurate. That was likely my wishful thinking. My point though was id really like some lower temps this august

        3. Those are average overnight low temps.
          They run slightly lower in August than July, which is the hottest month of the year on average.

  54. Cinemark theaters is showing movies from 1984 this week to celebrate their 40th anniversary. Each night will be a different movie, and the weekends will feature 2 movies. Tickets are only $5. The only Cinemark theater around here is in Salem, NH.
    Monday – Karate Kid
    Tuesday – Terminator
    Wednesday – Gremlins
    Thursday – Purple Rain
    Friday – Ghostbusters
    Saturday – The Last Starfighter and Nightmare on Elm Street
    Sunday – Footloose and Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom

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