Sunday August 11 2024 Forecast (7:44AM)

68 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

A quiet pattern is in place regarding our weather here well into the coming week, with high pressure in control most of the time. Daily wind direction will be largely determined by high pressure center positioning. The only potential interruptions to completely dry weather are isolated shower chances Monday from a trough passing by and Thursday from a very weak disturbance between 2 high pressure areas. As far as the visibility for Perseid Meteor Shower viewing, it looks great tonight and tomorrow night, though there may be a few clouds from time to time. We won’t have the moon around after midnight, which is when you can see up to 50+ meteors per hour in ideal viewing locations – that is, minimal light pollution. Good luck if you plan to be out there!

TODAY: Sunny morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Some high altitude smoke mainly South Coast this morning. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point sub-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Low risk of small hail in any heavier showers. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew lower to middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of an isolated shower. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

There is disagreement in medium range guidance on all kinds of things, from the movement and timing of a trough approaching from the west next weekend to the potential track of an offshore tropical system that looks like it will develop and move into the Caribbean during the next several days. Sensible weather for our region can be impacted by these systems, the latter much more likely than the former. So while this is a low confidence forecast, as of today I lean toward high pressure keeping us fair August 16-17, and a trough from the west increasing the humidity and shower chances August 18-20, while leaning toward ensemble indications of any tropical activity staying well offshore of the East Coast. Also, there’s no major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

Fairly quiet pattern overall – weak weather systems may pass by with a shower threat otherwise high pressure and a general weak westerly flow dominate with mostly fair weather and no prolonged major heat.

68 thoughts on “Sunday August 11 2024 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  2. More support for what develops into the next tropical cyclone stays BELOW hurricane strength until it passes the Lesser Antilles (affectionately known as the Lesser Ant Hills by my former old school colleagues hahahahaha). So, that’s good news.

    Also pretty solid ensemble indications that it will be a fish storm (other than maybe Bermuda?). Also generally good news.

    Now we can pay more attention to it as a “system” since there is an actual low center, albeit a broad one. There’s a reason I say this over and over. Because it’s the right way to do it. Also, no hype from me. 🙂 I like it that way…

  4. A little August back-to-back for Boston.

    Through 10 days, Boston is running a temperature departure of +2F, which makes sense given the warm, humid pattern we started the month in. The upcoming weather pattern should cut that about in half over the next week to ten days, and the look ahead doesn’t present me with a lot of reasons to believe that trend back toward normal won’t continue.

    For comparison, August 2023 in Boston was cooler than normal by 1F.

    Looking back over the previous decade, the warmer than average Augusts edge out the cooler than average Augusts about 60% to 40%.

    Looking ahead a little bit, the CFS continues its trend of no prolonged later summer heat and more frequent visits of cooler air from Canada. We’ll see how that works out.

  7. Thanks TK
    Are we through the worst of the heat and humidity of this summer? I sure hope so. As I said yesterday this week is shaping up to be the best week of the summer so far.

    2. We’re now just about to the point where the lowering sun angle and shortening days will have an increasing mitigating impact on any heat that takes place.

      TOFA defines the “dog days of summer” as July 3 through August 11. That’s not really inaccurate on a long term average basis.

      Entering mid August, while still technically mid summer for a bit longer, you start to notice the signs of late summer showing up more and more.

  11. JPD. How is Mrs OS. I suspect it takes a while once cooler-ish temps arrive to feel all better but hope last nights temps and this weeks will help

    Tom, how are you are your family?

    Hadi and Ace, I’m hoping all is 100% for you and your families.

    Philip, missing you and hope all is well

    1. It’s been rough. Hope this is over for good!!!!
      Even I have had enough of the crap we have been dealt!!

      1. I have also. It has taken a toll on my health that I didn’t expect. And that’s a very small fraction of what Mrs OS and others experience.

  13. I always say every day I don’t have to deal with heat and humidity means I am a day closer to fall. This week coming were not dealing with any of that and were getting closer to fall.

  14. Personally, I hope we have one nice late season heat spell. And one that perhaps I can sneak in a late season visit to Ogunquit. I’ve yet to make it there this season, but I’d settle for an off season visit, another thing I’ve never done there. 🙂

    Maybe September will give us one, but not like 1983, when Boston recorded an astounding SIX days of 90+, including 2 days in the upper 90s with a high for the month of 99 on Sep 11 and a monthly departure of +5F. Unmatched.

      1. I will. Even if off-season.

        I was thinking of finding a day in September or even early October that I can go up there, park, trolley down to Perkins, and walk back to the beach via Marginal Way.

        The trolleys generally run from July 1 through October there.

        Another thing I need to plan and do is a train ride up to Old Orchard Beach. That does not have to be during summer either. As long as I can explore and do a photo shoot. 🙂

    2. Love that area. Mac and I didn’t discover Maine until later but we sure took advantage of that discovery. I tend to prefer off season for most places….both for fewer people and weather.

      Im not typically a city type person but Portland is a ton of fun. Portsmouth also now that I think of it.

  15. Watching the final olympic competitions and will view the closing ceremony live this afternoon since I have a fireworks display to attend tonight. I always get a little sad when this event ends, as I label it as close as we can ever get to world peace. The IOC President basically said the same thing in an interview with NBC.

    It’s always awesome to see how these athletes, most of them young adults and some just children, can put their differences aside and compete with good sportsmanship, and support each other even when they are trying to defeat each other. A lot better than many of the adults we have as world leaders. Too bad they can’t take a lesson. Maybe someday…………….

  16. Posted this late last night, but sharing again for those interested:

    Cinemark theaters is showing movies from 1984 this week to celebrate their 40th anniversary. Each night will be a different movie, and the weekend days will feature 2 movies. Tickets are only $5. The only Cinemark theater around here is in Salem, NH (but there are a few in CT and Western MA as well).

    Monday – Karate Kid
    Tuesday – Terminator
    Wednesday – Gremlins
    Thursday – Purple Rain
    Friday – Ghostbusters
    Saturday – The Last Starfighter and Nightmare on Elm Street
    Sunday – Footloose and Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom

    1. Thanks! And it’s my reminder to send this to a few people I know who will be interested.

    2. Some good ones there. For me Purple Rain is the best of them.
      Others may disagree. And I have seen each and every one of them. 🙂

      1. I’ve seen about half the movies on that list, but at least a portion of every one of them. I know. Bad. I’ve been behind on movies my entire life. 😉

      2. Sorry, I missed one. I NEVER saw Nightmare on Elm Street and NEVER will as I HATE those type of movies. 🙂

        1. That type of movie is kind of a comedy for me, because it’s the campy horror film. You know, the kind where the stupid moves the characters make just before they’re done in are very predictable.

        2. I do not like that type of movie either. I’ve seen several of those. My favorite all time movies are

          An affair to remember
          Guess who’s coming to dinner
          Roman holiday
          More recently
          Dirty dancing
          Body guard
          Robinhood the newest
          Last of the Mohicans
          Oh God

          Those off the top of my head

  17. Watched a new movie on Apple TV last night, The Instigators

    Not a great movie by any stretch, however given that it stars
    2 local actors, Matt Damon and Casey Afleck AND it was filmed primarily in Boston and Quincy, it is well worth seeing. It is about a robbery gone terribly wrong, so much so, the movie becomes a comedy.

    I actually liked it even though it is NO acedemy award contender. 🙂

    Have a look if you are do inclined.

  19. I really really disappointed in how many people had to take to social media to trash the fact break dancing was included in the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris.

    I hope they feel good about themselves and they can rejoice in the fact it was temporary and won’t be part of the LA games in 2028.

    If they understood the roots and the history, and the fact it’s no different than something like ice dancing … coordinated body movement to music … they’d have realized how good a fit it was for Paris. Ice dancing is not the only apt comparison. Artistic swimming is another. Hey, even the trampoline. Maybe no music for that one, but still coordinated body movement. And if you’re going to go there, then you can just work your way through everything we consider a sport. All the same really.

    Ah well. Ignorance and trashing something they can’t understand is just the easier route I guess. Sad.

    (Sorry to have to go there with this, but it was bothering me and it was time to say something about it.)

      1. Same. It was a bit weird without it. I believe softball is back.

        I think new additions are squash and cricket.

        If I’m not mistaken, boxing is out.

        1. To continue the Olympics idea, both myself and my son at different times have come up with an idea that will never fly, because of our own self-limitations in the world, but imagine an olympics every year, one for each of the 4 seasons, on a 4-year cycle.

          Year 1: Spring
          Year 2: Summer
          Year 3: Autumn
          Year 4: Winter

          There are so many sports in the Summer games that they could be broken into 3 seasons to cover Spring through Autumn. And let’s add American football to the Autumn games (rugby can go to Spring since there are similarities).

          Winter sports would all stay right where they are, obviously.

          And yes I know that on the occasion that they occurred in the southern hemisphere, it’d be opposite, but Sydney did just fine when they hosted the summer games during their late winter / early spring. 🙂

          🙂

          1. American football would never fly in Autumn games. Anyone good enough to play would already ben playing either in the pros or college, neither of which will stop their schedules to allow players to leave, since their schedules are already so small to begin with. That, and the recovery time players need between games wouldn’t allow for too many games to be played.

            1. That is correct. It would never fly. But it’s still a nice thought to me. Not like any of what I said above will ever happen. 🙂
              But I’d also be ok leaving American football out of the Autumn Olympics. There are plenty of cool sports that could take its place.

              NHL will be in the next 2 winter olympics (at least).

                1. Right and how many countries have candle pin bowling???? 🙂 🙂 🙂
                  Would certainly have to be 10 pin.
                  But I’m NOT against it. 🙂

  20. “Rainbow Watch” for Monday. Timing of scattered showers and at least some partial clearing behind them increase the chance of this optical phenomenon.

  21. We now have “Potential Tropical Cyclone Five”. Tropical Storm Watches posted for much of the Leeward Islands. NCH forecast has it as a Tropical Storm in 36 hours, crossing the Leeward Islands in 48 hours, the USVI in 60 hours, the becoming a hurricane as it turns northward in 72 hours. The 120-hour forecast has it as a strong Category 2/borderline Category 3 heading toward Bermuda.

  22. I ran out of replies above (I have it set to 8 or whatever)…

    Dave: It’d have to be 10-pin. Imagine Olympic candlepin? HAHA!

    SAK: Yes, I’d be all for dodgeball! I could play that. And badminton. I’m good at badminton. 🙂 Forget table tennis though. I’d miss the ball every time.

      1. I might have one up on some of the field because I’ve bowled candles my whole life, but … there are some awesome bowlers out there that would make that team long before I would. 🙂

      2. When I started work at Doble in 1969, I’d never bowled. They had a league on rt 2 Cambridge. The engineers convinced me to try. Fast forward about five years, I’d somehow inherited managing the league. When a new employee Joined us, we became really close friends. Three years later we were married. I have not bowled in years but always loved candlepin. .

        1. It’s a great sport. My brother and my cousin worked at the Woburn Bowladrome. I bowled there regularly and still would go on occasion. Now when I go it’s a different place as they have been closed for a while (another story for another time).

          I was also a fan of the many candlepin TV shows through the years. There is still some tournaments that are streamed to the net that are available to watch. 🙂

            1. Yes, it definitely closed. There are “luxury” apartments all along there now. We miss it — we didn’t bowl often, but we would sometimes go down there to watch a game in the bar.

    1. A relatively easy “hit” for the northern Lesser Ant’s, maybe an issue for Bermuda, otherwise largely a fish storm ahead…

  25. Interesting trends going on with PTC 5.

    Most of the models at 18z and 00z have been trending west with the storm, but also weaker. However, the Ensembles have been trending east. Given that there is still not a well-defined low-level center, I would stick with the Ensembles for now.

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