Tuesday August 13 2024 Forecast (6:55AM)

38 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)

The pattern through midweek features a little more upper low to our east and high pressure to our west. There are no major changes to the forecast with dry weather most of the time. The shower threat is still there for Thursday, but also have to allow for possible pop-up showers to our north Wednesday wandering into the northern portion of the WHW forecast area in isolated form. When we get to the weekend we’ll start to see a more southwesterly air flow evolving along with an increase in humidity levels. This may lead to a few showers later Saturday but for now keeping the forecast generally dry with any shower activity limited and mainly west.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breeze are possible midday on.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Shallow fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A few isolated showers possible southern NH and northern MA in the evening. Fog patches develop interior lower elevations overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers possible. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible in the evening. Patchy ground fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers possible mainly central MA to southwestern NH. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)

The approach / arrival of a trough from the west brings higher humidity and greater shower chances to finish off the weekend on August 18. Shower/thunderstorm chances early next week diminishing midweek as the trough exits and high pressure build back toward the region from the west. Forecast Hurricane Earnesto is expected to be passing well east of the East Coast on a north to northeastward trek early in the period with large ocean swells impacting coastal areas.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)

Heading through late month the pattern looks fairly quiet, seasonably warm, with a couple passing disturbances providing short-lived unsettled weather chances. No indications of prolonged significant hot weather.

38 thoughts on “Tuesday August 13 2024 Forecast (6:55AM)”

    1. Indeed. I am typically happy to see August but more so as I struggled with HH

      56temp / 57DP overnight. Ahhhhh. 69/61 even now.

  4. Thanks, TK!

    Beautiful deep red and blue sunset last night!

    Deep blue skies with 67 degrees.

    I will be in my first staff meeting two weeks from now. We have three staff days (August 27-29), a five-day Labor Day break and the first day with kiddos is Wednesday, September 4.

    How about you, Tom?

    1. Hi Captain !

      The MEA and the district negotiated that if Labor Day falls on Sept 1, 2 or 3, we start after.

      Our teacher mtg day is 3 weeks from today and the school year starts Wednesday, Sept 3rd. Day. 180 next year is June 18th šŸ™

      I love what your district is doing !!!!!

      I was hoping to go in late this week and work on my room, but our rooms wonā€™t be ready until August 26th.

      Enjoy the last couple of weeks !!

      1. Oh sorry, I misread. Those are staff days, thatā€™s still good though. Chance to get ready, set up, catch up with everyone.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    I beg to differ a bit on one thing. Boston in almost any given summer is and feels considerably warmer/hotter than London/Amsterdam. And this is practically every day/evening. By comparison, Boston has numerous tropical nights. I know that this year was above normal. But even a more typical/average summer has that tropical feel quite frequently (temps in lows in the 70s/upper 60s; very high dewpoints). This just doesn’t happen across Northwestern Europe (for the reasons you gave).

    I’d say that Boston’s summer climate (to a greater degree in places like Atlanta/Savannah/DC/Baltimore) is MORE of a shock (disruptive to the body) to the system, because it’s so different, than the winter shock. Both do shock European visitors, as they’re really not accustomed to either. But summer is distinctly different.

    1. Heh.

      I didn’t actually say they were the same. šŸ˜‰

      I stated the meteorological / geographical reasons for the difference.:)

  9. Friend of mine: “Turned the Sox game off when Texas went up in the top of the 10th. I knew it was over. ”

    Me: “Yeah … too bad you missed the win in the bottom of the 10th.”

    For a crappy team they’re not too bad. šŸ™‚
    Very entertaining!

    1. Do they know in extra innings, each team starts the inning with a runner at 2nd ?? The Sox were only down a run ā€¦ā€¦

  10. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/can/GEOCOLOR/20242261410_GOES16-ABI-can-GEOCOLOR-9000×4500.jpg

    The smoke thatā€™s coming overhead today originates from western Nunavut and Northwest Territories wildfires that 4 days ago started ventilating smoke heavily. Itā€™s circled all the way around Hudson Bay and is coming south over us.

    The new wildfires that really took off in Saskatchewan have heavily ventilated for 2 days now and looked like they are already ventilating pretty good this morning, in spite of the more stable conditions nighttime offers. Hopefully those clouds approaching that area are accompanied with some higher humidity and a few showers.

  11. Potential SSW event in the southern hemisphere. A lot of media is erroneously saying that the last one was over 2 decades ago.

    Yes, there was one in 2002, but the most recent one was in 2019, and since its occurrence science has learned that the weather pattern created by this event was largely responsible for the Black Summer wildfires in the southern hemisphere that year.

    For now, we’re watching for the next potential SSW which would be much sooner than the 20-30 year average period of time between these events there.

    But this is a piece of evidence against the confidence of knowing such time periods, because we really haven’t been recording observations that long, in a relative sense.

      1. im kind of going from preparing for tropical cyclones to worrying about forest fires. I honestly rather a tropical cyclone than fire.

        1. Stay safe down there. Looks like you should come through it relatively OK, but not unscathed. It should be safely away from the islands before it really gets going .. then just have to see what lies ahead for Bermuda.

      2. I do not recall the black summer. I looked it up but suspect Iā€™m not looking correctly. I only found it related to Australia.

        1. Black Summer was a huge event in Australia (which I should have noted above), but I did note S HEM because South America had a spike in wildfires the following year, probably at least partially as a result of the same event, except the event that caused the hot/dry conditions in Australia in 2019 caused mild and wet conditions in South America, increasing vegetation. This was followed by multi-index-fueled dry spell in 2020 which lead to a bigger than average fire season there. So the events that are at least partially tied to that SSW / PV breakdown span 2 calendar years.

  12. A few things…

    Ernesto: The system is still a tropical storm and has been slow to intensify due to some adverse conditions (dry air entrainment) fighting better conditions, but it will become a hurricane as it moves AWAY from the islands. Good news. Conditions improve there. The hurricane does not become a powerhouse in the western Atlantic, but it will be a formidable one as it makes its closest pass to Bermuda later this week. I’m currently of the meteorological opinion, contrary to NHC, that the center will pass EAST of Bermuda.

    Aurora potential: The Planetary K Index has gone up notably in the last 3 hours, and it may continues to head higher with the potential for the northern lights visible later tonight in parts of this area. The good news is that some of the high altitude smoke should thin out later tonight, so if something does happen, at least there’s a shot at seeing it. As always, the less light pollution, the better.

    Our weather: The current regime continues to shave positive departure off the average temperature for this month so far, as I told you would happen. This overall trend will continue with the lack of heat in the forecast for a while. The GFS displayed a stronger western Atlantic ridge on some operational runs, but with no real support from ensembles which tells me that forecast was overdone. I don’t see any later-summer heatwaves on the horizon, let me put it that way. In fact, high heat in the country will be somewhat limited as we head from mid into late August, with the hottest weather limited to the southwestern Plains and Rockies. Here in New England we do see a bit more humidity later this week into early next week with eventually some additional unsettled weather, but not overly nasty in terms of the pattern. After that, another shot of drier air arrives from Canada toward the middle of next week.

    That’s ’bout it for now!

  14. I find it interesting how Bermuda handles hurricanes the way we handle 6-12+ inch snow events up here in the winter. Meanwhile the major southern cities here in the U.S. end up practically ā€œdevastatedā€ with even a TS or Cat 1 event.

    Bermuda, a tiny speck of land in the middle of the Western Atlantic. They prepare, clean up as necessary then back to normal business.

    At some point, I will begin posting here more often. šŸ™‚

    1. Glad you are almost ready to post more often

      Itā€™s interesting, isnā€™t it. While major southern cities do have strategic plans in place for sea rise, they have struggled with some common sense in the past. Some not so much common sense as circumstance.

      After Hugo, Charleston powers that be said they would not rebuild the houses on the barrier island that were destroyed. Over time, they not only rebuilt but they added at least one layer of homes beachside in front of then That was the common sense part

      Circumstancesā€¦.like Boston, Charleston is built on fill. A good deal is at or just either side of sea level. Oops. Oops for us also

    2. They are built for hurricanes, which is a wise thing to do if you’re often in the path. šŸ™‚

      And you’re very right.

      See you soon!

  15. All of that said, man really is not a great match for nature. Odd we have yet to figure that out

    Kenny Chesney made sure his home on the U.S. Virgin Island of St. John was built with hurricanes in mind. But Irma destroyed it. Good news was the many folks who took refuge in the home knowing how it was constructed were not harmed. Or at least that wa last I heard.

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