Friday August 16 2024 Forecast (7:34AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

The upper low that brought some shower and thunderstorm activity yesterday, including a few instances of severe weather (hail, wind damage), moves away today and an area of high pressure moves in with fair weather. But that fair weather does not mean a deep blue sunny sky all day long. Low level moisture has triggered stratus and fog that much of the region will see to start the day, and once that dissipates we have a veil of high altitude wildfire smoke to filter the sun, which will also be mixed with clouds. Our weekend will feature a continuation of wildfire smoke in the sky through Saturday, and probably Sunday too though we’ll see less of it then due to an increase in cloud cover underneath the main smoke layer. Hurricane Ernesto, which is forecast to make a close pass to Bermuda Saturday before accelerating northeastward over the open western Atlantic, will play a role in our weather, but it’s actually a positive one. This system is part of a pattern that holds up the eastward movement of weather systems, and the trough we’ve been watching for a weekend arrival via the Midwest / Great Lakes is going to be slow enough that we get through most of the weekend rain-free, with the shower threat holding off until later Sunday. One other impact from Ernesto will be increasing ocean swells along the coast during the course of the weekend, and into early next week. As for our early week weather here, the trough from the west finally gets in to bring us unsettled weather Monday and probably into if not through Tuesday, depending on how quickly things start to move eastward again. Tuesday’s forecast may change for the better if things move more quickly…

TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog to start, then smoke-filtered sun mixed with clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. High altitude smoke. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High altitude smoke. Highs 79-86, coolest South Coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70, warmest urban areas. Dew point in 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers late in the day, favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Occasional showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 64-71. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

A stretch of dry and pleasant weather is expected for much of next week with high pressure in control and a flow of air out of Canada / Great Lakes.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

A return of higher humidity and a few shower chances as a more typical August pattern returns for the late days of the month.

47 thoughts on “Friday August 16 2024 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  1. I still think the center of Ernesto passes east of Bermuda. Haven’t changed that thought process.

    The reasoning all along has been A.M.E.of an over-forecast wiggle to the left.

    Going to be close though. We’ll see…

  3. Thanks, TK…

    Wild suppertime yesterday here in the Silver City. 0.92″ in torrential downpours, hail, strong winds, One of the top weather events of the Summer of ’24!

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Looks like some in WHW area had some wild weather yesterday.

    Not so here, other than one big bang of thunder from a nearby lightning strike, NOT much to write home about. Perhaps 0.2 inch rain, NO Wind at all and mostly rumbles of thunder and some rain. WIMPY here and I MEAN that!!! Not too far away, it was a different story altogether.

    What do they say? LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION

    I SMELL AUTUMN not far away at all. Perhaps as early as next week!

    1. And I don’t want to hear that it is SUMMER til 9/20 or so.
      Bull crap. Summer is about to end, whether there are some warm/hot days ahead or not, it is basically OVA.

      By month’s end Boston’s average high goes to about 77 from a high of 82 or 83 on 8/1. Pretty big drop in the month of August.

      1. The fact is, by definition it’s summer until the autumn equinox.

        You can define it how you want, but that’s the correct definition.

          1. That sometimes appears as late as early October. 😀

            Long live summer in that case haha.

            1. With the season shift I think it can appear in October. November. December. January. But I’d say summer like weather then and fall like if i get my wish for next week. Pahleese

  10. I’ll be honest, since the first week of August, I’ve been very surprised by the pattern the last 10 days.

    If I recall correctly, August was supposed to be the most above average of the summer.

    I’m surprised by the omega block we had in Canada and the 2nd suppressed jet stream over the us squashing the previously dominant Bermuda high. Had something like Ernesto been there all of July, it wouldn’t have gone near Bermuda, it would have been hundreds of miles west of them.

    My concern is the 500 mb pattern returns to June and July’s come September, when I still think they’ll be a busy pipeline of storms in the Atlantic basin.

  11. The temp anomalies at mid month:

    Logan: +1.4F (7 of the last 10 days below avg)

    Providence: -0.5F

    Worcester: +1.8F

    Hartford: +2.5F

    Compared to June and July’s anomolies, decidely cooler.

    When we amassed huge anomolies the first few days of August, TF Green did not, as the wind was S and SW which held back their high temps those days. Thus, without getting off to as big a positive temp anomaly, the recent cooler temps actually have resulted in them running slightly cooler than average.

      1. Yeah, more than just Providence (TF Green) could have a negative temp anomaly by say August 24th or so, heading into the final week of the month.

        1. Boston may end up below normal for the month, and if they do it will be the second consecutive cooler than normal August.

    1. Good stuff, JpDave !

      I love this site !!

      Also, there’s the port Bermuda webcam, if anyone is interested.

  13. Thanks TK. Quick question or two. Are you still looking for cooler temps in our area in the weeks ahead and do you have a forecast for tropical activity in the next month or so?

    1. Yes, it will be on the cooler side next week.

      And we are just under one month from the peak of tropical season so we should always be watching. For now, other than Ernesto, the tropics are pretty quiet and should remain that way for the next several days.

  15. Model runs have Bermuda basically a direct hit, if off by a bit, it appears it would be a bit West, which is still bad.
    Good news: Only Cat 2 at best and perhaps only a Cat 1.
    Bermuda should be AOK.

    1. They’ll be fine. Saw a post today from a non-met-playing-met that Bermuda was likely to take a strong cat 3 or cat 4 hit, because “I know NHC doesn’t say this, but they’re going to be wrong” (paraphrased). Yup. Sure.

  16. The GFS & ECMWF are on different planets with regards to their depiction of the weather around here during the middle of next week…

      1. GFS has been better since its upgrade.

        Earlier this week, the ECMWF was adamant about a showery Saturday around here while the GFS held the activity off until later Sunday for most of the region. It stayed consistent while the ECMWF slowly trended toward it.

  18. NHC track is adjusted slightly east for Ernesto and that may not be the last adjustment prior to closest it will get to Bermuda – though it’s not going to be much longer. The center may go right over or just to the east of Bermuda. Ernesto will not be a major hurricane as it goes by (or over) Bermuda. While the island has taken direct hits from tropical storms and hurricanes many times, only 5 major hurricanes have made a direct hit (center over the island) in observed history…

    1) “Reid’s Hurricane”, September 11–12, 1839 – One of the worst storms in Bermuda’s history strikes the islands from the south with an exceptional 11 ft (3.4 m) storm surge. Boats along the southern shore are carried ashore and deposited in fields, while various species of fish are seen hundreds of yards inland. Hurricane-force winds uproot many thousands of trees and level numerous homes; few structures escape damage. Roadways are left impassable by debris from trees, walls, and fences. Many families are left homeless, some forced to abandon their homes in the middle of the night and endure the storm in the open. Sea spray renders nearly all residential wells brackish. Despite the destruction, no lives are reported lost. The storm is typically known as Reid’s Hurricane, after the newly appointed Bermuda Governor William Reid who studied and documented Atlantic hurricanes with great interest.

    2) September 12–13, 1899 – The distinct eye of a Category 3 hurricane tracks over Bermuda with severe damage reported in many areas. As residents are preoccupied with cleanup efforts from the previous storm, the hurricane catches the islands off-guard. Houses are unroofed or completely destroyed, and large boulders along the southern shore are tossed inland. Wharves and boats are wrecked. HM Dockyard in particular takes heavy losses, amounting to “at least five figures” (GBP). St. George’s Parish is cut off from the mainland after the Causeway is demolished by strong waves, at a cost of around £15,000. The hurricane also extensively damages crops and vegetation, dealing a major blow to farmers. Early estimates place total property damage at £100,000, and this storm remains the strongest on record to impact the islands until 1926 (see #4 on this list).

    3) September 21, 1922 – Bermuda is struck by a Category 3 hurricane and associated 8-foot (2.4 m) storm surge, resulting in the highest tide since 1899; an hour-long lull attends the passage of the eye. The hurricane submerges homes, roads, wharves, and other coastal installations, while 60 ft (18 m) waves break along the south shore. Winds reaching 120 mph (190 km/h) ravage vegetation, particularly banana trees. Heavy structural damage is also reported throughout the territory, and a number of small houses on White’s Island are blown into the water. Total damage is estimated at $250,000, and one fatality occurs when a sailor falls overboard at the Dockyard.

    4) October 22, 1926 – A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall, becoming tied with Hurricane Five of 1899 for the strongest recorded storm to strike the territory. The second half of the cyclone is the more violent; sustained winds of 114 mph (183 km/h) are measured at Prospect Camp before the British Army removes the anemometer to protect it from damage. Conditions at the Royal Naval Dockyard prevent its personnel from taking its anemometer down; it measures 138 mph (222 km/h) at 13:00 UTC, before the wind destroys it. Gusts over 100 mph (200 km/h) are recorded in the City of Hamilton. Damage is widespread but not extreme; although 40% of Bermuda’s houses sustain roof damage, only two are destroyed. The storm destroys banana plantations and fields of other crops. The Arabis-class warship Valerian sinks less than 5 mi (8 km) from HM Dockyard with 88 men lost and 21 survivors. Another ship, the cargo steamer SS Eastway, is lost near Bermuda along with 22 of her 35 crew members.

    5) September 5, 2003 – The island enters the eastern eyewall of Category 3 Hurricane Fabian, the most destructive hurricane in the territory since 1926. Elevated stations record wind gusts in excess of 150 mph (240 km/h), while the south shore is subjected to 20 to 30 ft (6 to 9 m) waves and an estimated 10 ft (3.0 m) storm surge. Seawater inundates beachfront structures and compromises the Causeway, where four people are swept away in their vehicles. Fabian produces considerable damage to property and vegetation, unroofing some buildings in exposed locations and causing more severe failures in weaker structures. The wind damage is perhaps exacerbated by several small tornadoes reportedly embedded in the hurricane’s eyewall. About 25,000 electric customers lose power, and total damage exceeds $300 million. Fabian is the only tropical cyclone in the weather satellite era to directly cause fatalities in Bermuda. In response to the hurricane’s destruction, the name Fabian is retired and replaced with Fred for 2009.

    The first 4 of these occurred in an 87-year period (1839 to 1926). It was then 3/4 of a century before it happened again, and another quarter century plus 1 year since that occurrence, making it only once in the last 101 years after a significant cluster prior to that.

    (Info for much of this came from Wikipedia, collected from numerous sources.)

    1. Thanks for the history of storms on Bermuda. Quick question: how much rain do you expect around here next week? Ch. 5 has rain/showers all week.

      1. I disagree with Channel 5. There won’t be much rain after Tuesday. That forecast is basically a ECMWF verbatim. And that model is performing poorly.

  21. The southern half of Bermuda is in the eye right now. The Bermuda National Museum, which is right by the Royal Naval Dockyards, has had sustained winds as high as 77 knots and a peak gust of 95 knots.

  22. Thanks, TK.

    Got to 75F yesterday. People here are complaining about the heat. It’s definitely not hot. Dewpoints are relatively low. Really no humidity to speak of. At night it cools down to 54F. It has an autumnal feel with a fairly big differential between daytime and nighttime temps.

    Yet, the headlines speak of “heat.” Tells you how relative such terms are.

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