Saturday August 17 2024 Forecast (8:07AM)

40 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

Hurricane Ernesto crossed Bermuda this morning and is now set to accelerate away from there and into the open North Atlantic this weekend, well southeast to of New England. As previously noted, Ernesto’s impact on our region come in a couple forms. One is to increase ocean swells and rough surf especially later in the weekend into the beginning of next week. The other is to delay the arrival of a trough from the west, keeping most of our weekend rain-free. We are still contending with a significant plume of high altitude wildfire smoke from Canada, which has been directed southward across our sky for the past several days due to the lack of upper pattern feature movement, but this plume will thin from west to east during the course of the weekend, just in time for more clouds to arrive from the west. However, as noted, shower activity will be limited to just light and scattered on Sunday, with the main activity from the trough coming through this region in a couple surges between early Monday and midday Tuesday as a frontal system and wave or two of low pressure impact southeastern New England. Drier air arrives later Tuesday and Wednesday, along with below normal temperatures and low humidity.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / limited smoke-filtered sun. Highs 75-82, warmest inland. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69, warmest in urban locations. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds dominate but intervals of sun and a possible passing shower, mainly west of I-95. Highs 76-83, warmest inland. Dew point 65+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Occasional showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periodic showers. Chance of thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and drizzle along with areas of fog in the morning. Clouds break for sun during the afternoon. Highs 69-76. Dew point 60+, falling to 50s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

High pressure maintains fair weather and low humidity from the middle of next week at least into the August 24-25 weekend before higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances arrive late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

A fairly seasonable pattern of moderate humidity and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, but no sustained major heat to end August, driven by a moderate westerly air flow across the Northeast.

40 thoughts on “Saturday August 17 2024 Forecast (8:07AM)”

  1. We have a fairly benign pattern now and this may continue right through the end of the month in very sharp contrast to August of 1955 when rainfall from former Hurricanes Connie and Diane combined to produce up to 2 feet of rain in parts of southern New England in less than one week, with major to catastrophic flooding. And this came just 1 year after Hurricane Carol’s major impact, and further, just 2 years after the high-end F-4 Worcester Tornado.

  2. Thanks, TK.

    It’s about as tranquil as it gets here. I’ve had very little rain in the 4 days I’ve been here and none in the forecast until perhaps Tuesday. It’s also not hot or humid. I lucked out.

    There is an area of fairly strong low pressure that will slowly make its way towards the British Isles, but with some blocking in place it may not fully impact the Southeast of the country, where London is located. It will, however, impact an area from Ireland to Wales to Scotland Monday and Tuesday. I do think London will have some wind and rain on Tuesday, but it’s not set in stone.

  9. SClarke……am I correct that you live in Lunenbearg?? Not a misspelling but pun intended. Lots of yogi’s up there from what I see and hear.

    1. 12:55 to 3:55 am ob had hurricane force gusts continually.

      Backside not as strong, but still feisty at a gust of 62 mph

      Was in calmer center for a few hrs. Ernesto has slowed down, so the south part of the circulation may go for a bit.

      On satellite, it looks partially like an intense mid latitude cyclone.

      1. It’s battled dry air its entire lifetime, and is probably already transitioning to post tropical.

        1. Thanks, I missed that 🙂

          Back in April, we were on the Norwegian Gem and parked at the Royal Naval Dockyards for 2 days/3 nights. I hope the island did alright.

          We had been to Bermuda before but I had forgotten that most/all the houses are designed to catch the rain water for use, so, I’m thinking all the tanks are full and then some.

  11. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024081700&fh=33&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    For August, I have found this 500 mb pattern to be strange the last 10+ days.

    The polar jet up by the arctic circle and the mid latitude jet suppressed southward over the heart of the US

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024081700&fh=300&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Signals ahead look more late August/early Septemberish to me

    Maybe 1 jet with the polar jet sinking a bit and the mid latitude jet coming north to form 1 jet over southern Canada at 50-55N Latitude, more in where it belongs in late summer.

    It is late summer, so, I wouldn’t expect it to last days on end, but if the jet returns to its more average location in southern Canada, I think we’ll see another 90F day or 2 or a 70F dp day or 2.

    But, out of August 500 mb flow last week and a half. Looks more like May to me.

    1. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024081712&fh=216&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

      It would also cool down northern Canada, which has had such a hot, dry, sunny stretch the last 10 days. This helped the wild fires take off and produce so much smoke that has affected our skies the last few days.

      About 4 days or so ago, in a town called coral harbour which is on an island/peninsula NORTH of Hudson Bay, they had heat warnings for temps 85-90F, their avg high is in the mid 50s !!!!!

        1. That tends to be a drier heat here (if it heats up) with the high well to the west and not offshore.

          1. It’s all relative. Drier as low to mid 60s dp instead of mid 70s. Hope it would be 50s, we shall see.

  14. I was hoping for better today – pretty stiff NE breeze and lots of clouds on the beach in Dartmouth – with hurricane weakening it seems that upper level low is now on the move more.

    1. Upper low was getting out of here either way.

      At least in Dartmouth the northeast wind is not directly off the water.

      Quite nice up here in the ‘burbs. Sun has been dominant since about 1PM and it’s warmed to the middle to upper 70s.

      1. 72-73 here is all. Dp 63, but it feels like the Tropical Rain forest to me as soon as I do anything other than sitting around!

  15. I did a couple hours of yard work with my brother. No sweat. Ok, a little, but not much.. haha! Wasn’t bad out there at all. 🙂

    1. I sure can appreciate that. It would not have bothered me at all a few years ago. Now between asthma and age, it knocks the starch out of me.

      Dp still 66.

      1. Ohhhh and I should add. It is a lot better than it was so sure agree there. A DP in 40s now tops my wish list.

  18. The heaviest went west but a quick drink for the plants.

    Still feeling humid even though temps are very reasonable. Looks like that also goes done Wednesday, a quick fall preview.

    Heading to Aruba next week with FIL/SIL and we were hoping no Hurricanes and TK delivered.

  19. Showers much earlier and much more widespread today, but not all day. This was a rare epic fail by short range guidance too – they haven’t experienced many recently, but 2 of them have occurred this week. 1) Thursday’s storm timing. 2) Today’s shower coverage and timing.

    Ah well, leaned on it a bit much. We still go rain-free a good portion of this day, and the last portion of my lawn mowing may be pushed to very late in the day…….we will see!

    New weather post…

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