Sunday August 18 2024 Forecast (7:40AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)

Despite an early visit from showers for most of the area (not really in the forecast), we still have a majority rain-free day ahead as showers become less numerous then depart the region as the morning goes along, and only a few quick showers remain possible mainly west of I-95 during the afternoon. This unsettled weather and the episodes of showers Monday and early Tuesday will be caused by a trough of low pressure moving through from west to east, as weather systems are finally back on the move again. Behind this comes cooler and drier air for the middle of next week, but with an upper trough of low pressure still hanging around, I can’t rule out a few pop-up showers both Wednesday and Thursday with the help of daytime heating.

TODAY: An overcast start with fairly widespread showers and areas of fog. Clouds break for sun at times thereafter but a passing shower can occur late morning on favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 74-81, warmest inland areas. Dew point 65+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Occasional showers and a chance of thunderstorms greatest chance morning and again late afternoon / early evening. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and drizzle along with areas of fog in the morning. Clouds break for sun during the afternoon. Highs 69-76. Dew point 60+, falling to 50s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)

High pressure is expected to provide fair weather with a warming trend heading into late next week. Humidity starts low then climbs slowly. Showers may become possible later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

A fairly seasonable pattern of moderate humidity and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, but no sustained major heat to end August and greet September, driven by a moderate westerly air flow across the Northeast.

46 thoughts on “Sunday August 18 2024 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  1. Thanks TK

    The heaviest went west but a quick drink for the plants.

    Still feeling humid even though temps are very reasonable. Looks like that also goes done Wednesday, a quick fall preview.

    Heading to Aruba next week with FIL/SIL and we were hoping no Hurricanes and TK delivered.

  5. Thanks TK. Just wondering what you would forecast as the number of 90 degree days over the balance of the summer. I am looking forward to cooler temps this week.

    1. I wish I could forecast specific 90+ days weeks in advance. But with the upcoming pattern, I don’t see many. Boston will end up below the average IMO.

  7. I must be a real geek and nerd or something as I just watched
    the Queen’s Gambit for the 4th time! Love that series on Netflix!!

    Too bad I am the world’s worst chess player! 🙂
    I used to play, but I can’t play a lick anymore.

  9. Thanks TK.

    We are in Bar Harbor this weekend and it’s cloudy, foggy and only 63 here today. Had a great day yesterday at Acadia with mostly sunny skies and temps in the low 70s. Nice views on our hike to the top of Gorham Mtn and stopped at Thunder Hole and Sand Beach. Water temp was a balmy 59.

    The ocean is going to be interesting today. High Surf Advisory is in effect for breaking waves of 5-7 feet.

    1. Enjoy !

      Looks like low tide is around 4pm.

      At low tide, there’s an exposed path that allows for walking over to an island.

      But watch the clock, after the tide starts to return, it doesn’t take long for that path to get covered by water again.

      1. Yes, we did that last time we were here and watched several people get stuck! We could see it from where our inn was. It was quite comical, and I’m sure a pretty regular occurrence here.

  10. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024081812&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    The models last 24 hrs or so have changed from looked like a decent trof to a closed off low.

    This continues the fall preview idea next week, but, it might feature unstable afternoon conditions …. Morning sun bubbles up a lot of mostly fair weather cumulus, but a few could drop afternoon scattered showers. Then around sunset, the clouds go poof and then it’s rinse and repeat for a few days until the upper low moves away.

  12. Flash Flood Warnings up in parts of western CT. Flood threat with the latest warning statement considerable.

  13. It was a good morning to run Falmouth and the lower temps helped me finish in 1:08:21 which I did not expect after a few weeks of poor training due to heat and a lot of traveling. Those showers felt good right before the start. Such a beautiful course with over 11,000 runners and really immense crowds of spectators. They were simply awesome really cheering every single runner on. Really impressive!

    1. Hi Jimmy, we were there too watching my future son-in-law. Congratulations on a good race. Conditions were pretty good today. What a great course.

      1. Thanks North – it was humid but the cloudy skies helped. I hope your son in law had a great race

  16. Tom posted the link to the radar in western CT earlier
    From Ryan Hanrahan

    A significant flash flood event is underway from Norwalk and New Canaan north to Newtown and Southbury. Stay away from flooded roads and use caution if heading out this afternoon. Radar estimates over 6″ of rain in spots today.

  17. There have been areas in southwestern CT that have gotten between 4-8 inches of rain so far today with locally higher amounts.. Reading the text in the flash flooding warning for parts of Fairfield and New Haven counties there been some mudslides and water rescues.

  18. Still pleasant weather here. Feels like late September/early October. Locals say it’s warm. It got to 73F today. Practically no humidity. No insects, either. No need for screens. Nights dip into the mid to upper 50s. Next weather system to impact the UK will come across the Atlantic this week, ushering in cooling temps, wind and eventually some rain.

    Wish I could stay here for a few more years.

      1. Borderline top end tropical storm, low end hurricane.
        With only 12 hours left before shear would end this, they’ll probably hesitate a bit since it’s over open water. If I had to bet though, they will re-upgrade to ‘cane at 21z (5PM).

          1. I mean it won’t matter much … because it’s not impacting anybody other than a few ships that have to move outta the way. And it won’t be a powerhouse when it reaches Europe. But if it’s a hurricane, call it a hurricane.

  20. Eastern Pacific tropics picking up a little. They are looking at near-record low activity so far this season.

    Atlantic: 5 named storms so far. No named storms likely during the next 10 days. That’s going to get us to nearly the end of August and still at 5. Shhhhhhhhh. Don’t tell the basin it was supposed to be like one of the “worst eva!” … Lots of time left though so it remains to be seen where we go.

    1. Legit info. And yes I have noticed pretty extensive dust again for this late in the season, and very unfavorable conditions for development in the short to medium term.

      But it’s definitely too soon to call the season a dud. We don’t reach the climate peak until September 10. What has gone on so far is less than impressive though, based on earlier predictions.

      The average # of named storms in the Atlantic through August is 5. We’re at #5 now, but there’s still just under 2 weeks left to the month. But as I stated, the next 10, to me, look pretty threat-free, so we may make it to the end of the month still at 5.

      As I have said many times, you can have all the warm water in the world, but it doesn’t mean crap for storms unless you have other favorable conditions. Wind shear, dry air, dust, and otherwise unfavorable upper level conditions have been present very frequently this season so far, so screw the water that’s warm enough. It doesn’t matter. 😉

      2. One thing Joe D’Aleo has been harping on since before the season began – nearly all of the most active hurricane seasons have occurred near the solar minimum. This year we are near the solar maximum. He’s been saying all season that he wondered how much of an impact that would have, and everyone else was just ignoring it. In fact, a mutual friend of ours (whose 1st and last name are nearly identical) outright dismissed it when I brought that point up before the season.

  23. What a day of weather to areas south and west of me with the flooding. Some pics where radar estimates of 5-10 inches of rainfall. 5.5 inches of rain where I am.

    https://x.com/Danbury_WX/status/1825252187527958550
    https://x.com/Danbury_WX/status/1825261476984062201http
    https://x.com/Danbury_WX/status/1825295441317040145

    This tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Over 10″ of rain in about 12 hours around Oxford and Southbury is close to a 1-in 1000 year flood. That means rain totals like these have an approximately 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year. An exceptional event.

    1. I’m glad he actually included what that means. Not that it only happens once every thousand years. That term is so misleading that I hate it with a passion. 🙂

      The cause of today’s extreme rainfall event. Blocking, which basically stalled the convergence line in the same place for hours. This type of pattern is less common in summer than it is in the colder seasons, which is a good thing since summer’s warmer atmosphere allows a lot more moisture to be held, and released. We saw that today.

  24. Thanks TK for the explanation. This was what was expected here in parts of western and southwestern CT today. More moderate to heavy rain starting to move into those flooded areas. Hopefully this will move and not stall.

    1. I’m curious why the short range guidance didn’t really have at least a bit more of a clue that something significant was coming. Even if it was off on the amounts, it really didn’t have a significant enough event progged even just hours before. But I know there are certain set-ups in the atmosphere that are just not well-modeled.

  25. Meant to say this was NOT expected here in parts of western and southwestern CT. I can’t type sometimes. This certainly caught people off guard in those areas hard hit by flooding today.

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