Monday August 19 2024 Forecast (6:55AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

A low pressure trough and associated cold front will move slowly across the region today through early Tuesday with unsettled weather in the form of occasional showers. There can be a few thunderstorms involved as well until the front pushes through the region from west to east this evening. Upper level low pressure will hang around through midweek. A dry slot brings any showers to an end after early Tuesday, but pop-up afternoon showers are possible both Wednesday and Thursday with the help of solar heating. Temperatures will run below normal through mid week, with some “feel of fall” nights upcoming once we get rid of the current humid air mass. By Friday, high pressure builds in with fair weather, a cool start, and a warmer afternoon. Ernesto re-strengthened to a hurricane north northeast of Bermuda yesterday and will continue to accelerate into the open North Atlantic through midweek, still producing some rough surf and large ocean swells along our coast for a couple more days before that subsides.

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog this morning including periodic showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy but breaks of sun this afternoon with a chance of a passing shower, then a better shower and thunderstorm chance returning in the early evening from west to east. Highs 74-81. Dew point 65+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with patchy fog and passing showers. Partial sun by midday on. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 60, lowering into 50s. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 68-75. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog inland lower elevations. Lows 48-55, coolest inland lower elevations. Dew point sub-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

High pressure is expected to provide fair weather with a warming trend over the August 24-25 weekend. Higher humidity and shower / t-storm chances return thereafter as a trough and frontal system move into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

High pressure returns with drier and mild weather to finish the month of August then a warm-up and more humid weather heading toward Labor Day (September 2).

57 thoughts on “Monday August 19 2024 Forecast (6:55AM)”

  4. Thanks, TK.

    Another beauty on tap today. A bit cooler, 71F for a max. Cooled off to 51F last night in North London.

    The heat and haze of late June/July feel like a distant memory.

    We all know how influential America is in the world, in many good ways, mind you. What I’ve noticed is that even our way of talking with frequent use of the word “like” as filler has entered English lexicon here, at least among the younger generation. Not sure if I like that (pun intended).

    1. 🙂

      We got a lot of rain up in Lowell.

      Perhaps we saw a tropical storm force wind gust out of the northeast, if it did ……. But rain, rain, rain.

      The Merrimack river went from no water going over the Pawtucket falls to flood stage.

  8. The cleanup from the flooding continues for areas southwest of me. What a day of weather it was for areas of western and southwestern CT. What a failure by the short terms models as none of them were showing what happened in those areas I mentioned.
    Radar estimates of the rain thanks to eweather13 on X
    https://x.com/Eweather13/status/1825457731920187584

  10. Today is a day where we have both a supermoon and a blue moon. (I’ve seen different definitions of blue moon.) Might be a little too cloudy tonight to see any of it.

  11. Hurricane Bob is probably the most significant event I’ve dealt with as a meteorologist. I was getting ready for my sophomore year at ULowell. At the end of my freshman year, I’d been named Lead Forecaster for the student-run Weather Center. So, I’d been heading up to Lowell periodically that summer, as we had a phoneline to update with the forecast, provide forecasts to the ULowell campus police and the city of Lowell, as well as providing updated forecasts 3 times a day for WLLH radio. On top of this, I was a couple of months into my part-time job at Weather Services Corporation (TK is the one who got me the job there ), and also working at Shaw’s Supermarket. (Yeah, that was a busy summer). In mid-August, a storm formed near the Bahamas on a Friday (August 16 to be exact). I started telling my friends from Shaw’s that it was going to become a hurricane and head up the coast and none of them believed me. On Saturday, I worked at Weather Services, then headed immediately to the Weather Lab in Lowell, where the Weather Center Director was already busy. He and I didn’t leave the Lab until more than 48 hours later. That was a long, busy, and fun weekend. We kept watching as the storm strengthened and headed up the coast, staying up all night watching the observations from Cape Hatteras, NC. As daybreak came on the 19th, we started doing our updates. By late morning, the updates with WLLH were hourly. We also had a reporter from the Lowell Sun there to write a story about the two of us (He got his picture in the article, I didn’t). While the reporter was there, a funnel cloud passed right by Olney Hall. We have no idea if it ever touched down, but both of us saw it. The storm passed by, the rain died down, and we decided to go venture out and survey the landscape. As we got onto the University Avenue Bridge, the backlash hit, with a gust to 50-60 mph. (Perhaps we shouldn’t have gone on the bridge.) That weekend was the 1st time that I truly realized that yes, I could do this and do it well. I had a few detours along the way (they actually expect you to pass all your classes to stay in school), and eventually got my degree, and the rest was history.

    1. Great story. Thank you for sharing!!

      Oh I remember that day. I told my boss (The President of the Company) that work should be cancelled. He refused, until he started driving to work and he couldn’t see 2 feet in front of him from the heavy rain. He called me and told me to send every one home. Yes I was in the office and didn’t go home until about Noon.

      At my location (JP) the storm wasn’t much). Wind gusted to perhaps 60 mph, but there was plenty of rain.

      The next weekend we drove down to the CAPE and walked
      South Shore Drive in Falmouth. Part of the road was gone.
      A gazillion trees down and buildings along the water destroyed.

      It was a disastrous site to behold.

  12. SAK,

    On the last blog you posted something about the current Solar Maximum having a negative effect on Tropical development in the Atlantic basin.

    Fascinating comments.

    My question is this:

    It appears that the major negative effect is the amount of Saharan Dust in the atmosphere over the MDR.

    So does the Solar Maximum effect the amount of Saharan Dust?

    Just trying to make sense of this.

    Many thanks

    1. Saharan dust varies from year-to-year. In fact, 2023 had some of the lowest dust concentrations on record. This year has seen significantly higher dust concentrations, and they have lasted a little longer into the season than usual. Also, waves have been coming off of Africa a little farther north than usual, so they have been embedded in the dust, prohibiting development.

  13. JpDave there are many other pictures from the flooding in parts of western and southwestern CT. Southbury, Oxford, and Monroe appear to be the hard hit towns.
    My question is WHY did the short range models fail so badly and those areas got between 6-12 inches of rain? The short range models were showing 1-1.5 inches of rain.

  14. From Ryan Hanrahan about the flooding in parts of southwestern CT

    Yesterday’s flash flood – which came close to the state’s 24-hour rain record – was very poorly forecast. Very little signal on our high resolution ensemble forecasts (which are designed to pick up localized events like this) and only a marginal risk for flash flooding from WPC.

    Our forecasts are much better than they were 10 years ago but localized events like this one can still happen with little warning. Frustrating for sure and another example of where we need to keep improving.

  17. It is indeed the anniversary of hurricane Bob. And Mac’s 75th birthday. I remember Gloria being more dramatic but Bob leaving more flooding behind….including in our attic where Mac spent the day collecting water.

    1. In my area, Gloria took down more trees than Bob did. There were simply fewer older / weaker trees for Bob to get post-Gloria.

  20. Thanks, TK.

    We were in Framingham at the time of Hurricane Gloria. I remember the sky being pink the evening before. The day Gloria hit we got a lot of wind but no rain. The next day a cold front went by and we had a bad thunderstorm with heavy rain, thunder and lightning. I don’t remember if there was any wind with it. With Hurricane Bob, I don’t remember much but it seemed worse than Gloria with heavy rain where we were.

    1. Hi Rainshine. Hope all is well.

      We had more wind than rain with Gloria. Ans more trees down in our area of Framingham. A neighbors willow went down when I was looking out of the porch to check trees behind. Willows have shallow root systems but it was quite a sight

  21. Gloria vs Bob – it’s all in the track. Tropical systems become lopsided once they get up here. All the wind is right of the center, all the rain is left of the center. Gloria went up the Connecticut Valley, so much of this area had lots of wind, and little rain. Bob crossed SE Massachusetts, so the strongest winds were confined to Cape Cod and the South Coast, with heavy rain for the rest of the region.

    Rainfall map for Hurricane Gloria: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/gloria1985filledrainwhite.gif

    Rainfall map for Hurricane Bob: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/bob1991filledrainwhite.gif

  28. Grass is getting pretty long in backyard. Just too muggy today to mow. I would think by this time tomorrow will feel much cooler?

  29. Hopefully keep the rain out of the areas that saw the flooding in southwestern and western parts of CT

  31. Just advised a large recreational area that does an outdoor movie tonight that postponing tonight would be a good idea (rain date is tomorrow). The person I talked to trusts me but has to go with what their boss decides, and the boss said “I looked at my weather app and it’s not coming until overnight”, so the event is a go. They’re going to get rained on, and maybe stormed on. Ugh.

    1. Ugh is right. My oldest and family invited me for an exceptional steak dinner to celebrate Mac. I just got home in time. My lightning pro was playing the sound of thunder through my car radio the whole way.

  34. `Fun’ fact: The Red Sox have given up 79 unearned runs this year. The next closest is the Cubs with 63.

  35. Nice bird flock on radar this morning – taking off from North River area on Pembroke / Norwell border.

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