Tuesday August 27 2024 Forecast (7:46AM)

49 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)

This 5-day forecast period finds us closing out August and reaching the Labor Day Weekend (day 5). Yesterday’s weather was somewhat volatile as a potent disturbance triggered thunderstorms. Not every location saw them, but those that did were rocked pretty good with heavy rain, hail, frequent lightning, and a few strong wind gusts. But it’s much quieter this morning, with only some fog and low cloud patches around. Those will dissipate as the sun rises and we’re in for a nice day today with high pressure in control. Low pressure passes north of New England on Wednesday, sending a cold front through the region. This front brings the chance of passing showers and thunderstorms then leads a cooler, drier air mass into the region Thursday and Friday. The next front approaches on Saturday with a shower and thunderstorm chance returning, but timing is uncertain on this one, so check upcoming updates as we focus on the forecast for the holiday weekend.

TODAY: Low cloud / fog patches early, otherwise sun and a few clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near to a little under 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point around to below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Dew point sub-60. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 50s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 55-62. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

We’ll have to watch for a shower chance early September 1 and late September 2 with passing fronts, otherwise the balance of the holiday weekend looks mainly rain-free and mild to warm. Fair, mild to warm weather continues mid period with a shower chance returning late period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Unsettled weather most likely early in the period otherwise a quiet pattern with near to slightly above normal temperatures.

49 thoughts on “Tuesday August 27 2024 Forecast (7:46AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Comfortably mild overnight on the campground.

    We are thankful we didn’t take a direct thunderstorm hit yesterday.

    I was impressed, as it was, with what we did get.

    1. At least you saw something. It was PATHETIC here! 🙂

      Although the sky looked like a scene from Twisters! Wow!
      It was awesome looking, but it MISSED!

      Btw, something weird yesterday. AS that dark sky was approaching, a BIG gust of wind blew in from the EAST and NorthEast and the temperature dropped 5 or 6 degrees. I said to myself, NO STORMS for me today and that is EXACTLY what happened!!!!

      2. That east and northeast wind probably did end any chance of something. Inside of 495 wasn’t much.

        Maybe next time 🙂

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    As you said, NOT everyone saw a storm yesterday and that includes me. A few drops of rain and the rumble of distant thunder one time is all we got. I am NOT surprised in the slightest. We seem to have an ANTI-THUNDERSTORM SHIELD over us.

    I must admit as day broke, I thought I “might” get in on the action. NOPE, just not to be. Perhaps another time.

  7. I had my thunderstorm back on the evening of June 27th. I have not seen the wind gust that much in a thunderstorm since the overnight severe weather outbreak in February 2016.

    1. I wondered if you might have had one. And I do remember the huge wind gust now that you mention. Thanks JJ

  8. I know we’re looking and should be at the Africa tropical waves and the MDR, but I feel like the op runs (GFS and Euro) hint at an old front near the east coast in the long range and maybe something trying to develop from that ?????

    1. MDR? (Main Development Region) What’s that? Doesn’t seem to exist this year.
      I mean the MDR exists, but Not much happening there. 🙂

    2. We are a couple of weeks away from peak Atlantic hurricane season, but so far it’s the hurricane season that never really happened. I think the hurricane season forecasts were a big MISS. TK, SAK, and you have posted reasons for this.

  10. Another Fall Preview Coming???
    CPC showing below normal temps in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

    1. Yup, looks pretty cool ahead.
      Too bad we couldn’t get a frost/freeze

      A New Hampshire man has DIED of EEE!!!!

      YIKES!!!!

      1. I’ve a feeling this autumn’s frosts and freezes are going to be earlier than the long term average.

        1. For the sake of possible unlucky ones, I hope you are
          100% correct! This year we really NEED them to come EARLY. We shall see.

  11. Pool water was cooled by the rain. Was 77° now 73°. I’m down near TF. Greene International in Warwick.

  12. Boston should come in near to slightly below normal for temps when August is done.

    No heat. Falling behind the average for 90+ despite all the long range outlooks saying they’d be numerous (I actually didn’t think it would be that hot, just hotter than last summer, which was easy to pull off – you can go back and find me saying this in the blog history numerous times, as well as in messages to colleagues and on social media).

    Medium range guidance still showing basically zippo for tropical activity for the next week, and hints at something trying to get organized in the MDR toward the 7 to 10 day time window.

    As previously stated, IF we get to the end of September 7 and have no named systems in the Atlantic, it would be the FIRST TIME IN 68 YEARS with no named systems in the Atlantic from the final week of August through the first week of September! We’ll see if it gets that far, but we have a legit shot to see this occur.

    1. NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic hurricane forecast issued early this month. (I am not sure if there was another update after this.)

      Named storms: 17-24
      Hurricanes: 8-13
      Major hurricanes: 4-7

      I’d say things would have to hustle along to make these numbers.

      1. I mean we do have a long way to go, and as quiet as the first half of the season is turning out, the 2nd half can go the opposite way. But there are some enemies of development out there, and they are not in a hurry to go away either.

        While it remains to be seen for sure, the significant water temperature drop since June (Atlantic Nina) is probably an important factor.

          1. That’s correct, a longshot, Longshot!
            Honestly, I don’t agree with him.
            I don’t agree with NOAA.
            I don’t agree with Colorado State.

            But if it goes nuts the 2nd half of the season I’m ready to eat crow. 😉

            Didn’t agree with the J.C. summer outlook either, but I find myself seldom agreeing with any of his long range predictions. We think very differently when it comes to long range prognostication.

  13. Trend for the timing of the weekend front to be early Sunday, keeping Saturday dry and most of Sunday as well.

    Front approaches late Monday but looks pretty benign.

    Cool feed from Canada next week. Temps going sub-average to start September.

  14. Re EEE. We are spraying here in sutton and surrounding towns. Sutton is at critical risk stage. I’d love a had freeze. Someone in one of these towns listed as critical risk (some towns are at high) got it. We have not heard of his condition

    I pray for a hard freeze every year.

  15. TK is the normal temp for August based on 30 years or all years we have recorded. While it certainly was not every year, So far this is the august I remember.

    1. Currently it’s based on the 30-year average they are using now, but that doesn’t change very much from what block to another. Only a matter of a couple degrees total range.

      1. The 30 year average includes most years where warming had begun. Makes sense if the powers that be want to skew the normal. On a logical level, it makes absolutely no sense to me at all for any reason other than that.

  16. Thanks, TK!

    Back to school tomorrow, Wednesday and next Tuesday with teacher days. First day with the kiddos is next Wednesday, September 4!

    How about you, Tom?

    2. Heading in tomorrow to work on my room and also from 8:30 – 11am, incoming 6th graders are welcomed to come in and tour their cluster.

      Depending on what I get done tomorrow, I might have to go in Thursday.

      Then, teacher mtgs next Tuesday and 1st of the year is Wednesday.

    1. 100% yes. Take it from a senior agricultural meteorologist. This is a significant factor.

      Plants hold a LOT of water, and release a lot during maturation. And we actually grow more corn now than we did in decades past, so the total amount of water released has actually increased.

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