DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29 β SEPTEMBER 2)
High pressure stretching from Quebec to Atlantic Canada will provide dry, cooler weather today and Friday. As the high shifts more to the southeast, we’ll start to experience some weather changes heading into the holiday weekend. For the final day of August on Saturday we’ll see some cloudiness return, but also some sun, as a warm front lifts through the region. This front can produce a few showers mainly across southern areas Saturday morning, but most areas will not see this activity. The front’s parenting low will track north of our region Saturday night into Sunday, dragging a cold front through. The timing of this front is such that the main shower threat will occur during the first 12 hours of Sunday from west to east, but I can’t rule out a few spot showers ahead of that sometime on Saturday evening. I do think most of Saturday’s daylight hours will be dry well ahead of the cold front, along with Sunday afternoon after the front pushes through. A spike in humidity and a warm-up will occur Saturday, and Sunday will remain on the warm side but with lowering humidity behind the front after a muggy start to the day. Labor Day, another cold front will move through but this one will have very limited moisture to work with and a spot shower chance is a stretch. We’ll probably just see some some passing clouds and a wind shift, and in a symbolic way the feel of autumn later in the day as the sun sets on the closing of the unofficial last weekend of the summer season.
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior valleys. Lows 51-58. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NE to variable under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Dew 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 55-62. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable to SE under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible mainly south of I-90 morning. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising to 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A possible shower in the evening. Showers and possible thunderstorms overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Lots of clouds with showers ending west to east in the morning. Sun/cloud mix thereafter. Highs 71-78. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 70-77. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
High pressure will dominate with generally fair weather during much of next week. Temperatures start out near to below normal then moderate slightly.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
Dry weather expected early in the period before unsettled weather becomes more likely mid period, then fair weather again late period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Good morning and thank you TK.
88 was my high yesterday with dp up to 71.
dp now 54.
Thanks TK !
Thanks, TK.
Glad I grabbed some London weather and sprinkled into the forecast to some degree.
I have a staggering amount of work to do, but at least I’m doing it under reasonable weather conditions.
Welcome back !
I do miss England a lot. Not just the weather. I used to absolutely love coming back to the U.S. It’s why I returned home from the Netherlands many moons ago. But I no longer do. Not feeling at home is a problem. Would not want to live in Holland, by the way. BUT would jump on any opportunity to live in England permanently.
Thanks TK
00z models came to life on a possible, future tropical system.
As did the NHC, although not all that bullish.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
ahh, they upgraded it. π
This guy?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024082906&fh=252&dpdt=&mc=&r=caribbean&p=prateptype_cat-met&m=gfs
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-met&rh=2024082906&fh=282&r=caribbean&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-met&rh=2024082900&fh=240&r=caribbean&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-met&rh=2024082900&fh=240&r=caribbean&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks, JpDave !
And here is the GDPS and the Euro (both 00z)
There ya go! The verdict is in. We’ll have a tropical system!
Why? Well because all 3 major models said so.
It is cast in stone!!!! π π π
We shall see.
Hahahahaaaaa!
I thought you’d like that. π π
Will there be? Sure, could be. Could be NOT as well. π
I’m not too excited about it at the moment.
This is like in winter all the models showing a sizeable snowstorm days in advance and next run nothing showing up.
EXACTLY. Except the NHC shows some concern. So perhaps a little more reliable than just the models???? Who knows.
We’ll be watching, that’s for sure.
Change of season in 24 hrs.
Thanks TK
Now you see it (00z GFS)
and β¦β¦
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-met&rh=2024082912&fh=207&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
Now you donβt. (12z GFS)
Correct, but GDPS (Canadian) Still has it full blow while the EUro still has a semblance of it, but very weak. π
6Z GFS
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024082906&fh=219&dpdt=&mc=&r=caribbean&p=prateptype_cat-met&m=gfs
12Z GFS
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024082912&fh=213&dpdt=&mc=&r=caribbean&p=prateptype_cat-met&m=gfs
Sure sounds like the WInter Snow Storms analogy posted by JJ.
π π π π
FWIW, the 12Z ICON has the tropical
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype-met&rh=2024082912&fh=240&r=caribbean&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks TK.
Need to keep that storm away next weekend! I am going to be in Orlando next Friday AM to Monday AM.
Not too concerned about it right now looking at the ensembles. Not a ton of support for it. Operational runs at this lead time are not very useful.
One of the sites I turn to occasionally when there are tropical “somethings” that might develop.
http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/
http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/storms/summary_north_atlantic.png
I think this student does studies in the arctic mostly. But when the time comes, he also serves good spaghetti.
Thanks
My Weekend Outlook is up:
https://stormhq.blog/2024/08/29/weekend-outlook-august-30-september-2-2024/
Thanks!
I’m leaving on a cruise on Thursday. Boston – Halifax – Sydney, NS – Charlottetown, PEI – Corner Brook, NFLD. If there’s a tropical, keep it in the Caribbean, Gulf, or Bahamas/Florida.
keep it away from the USVI lol, the infrustructure can’t handle a darn partly sunny day.
Can we have Bill back, Im getting sick and tired of the BS sound bites coming from the coaches and players. Focus on playing and getting better in my opionion.
I haven’t been paying a lot of attention but what I have heard is kind of annoying. π
I’m just going to try to enjoy the games for what they are, kind of like the Sox. Always a fan of the teams, even if the moving parts are a little wonky. π
New weather post…