Sunday September 1 2024 Forecast (8:07AM)

40 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

September starts off with a warm and moderately humid air mass in place. A trough can kick off a shower or thunderstorm in a few places from midday to late afternoon mainly from the I-90 belt southward. A cold front will cross the area tonight but it looks like any convective activity associated with it will largely diminish / dissipate before entering the WHW forecast area, other than maybe a stray shower or storm in southwestern NH or central MA sometime this evening. The front moves offshore by morning, and high pressure will build into the Great Lakes, delivering a cooler, dry air mass. Some clouds will pop up during the day Monday in response to a pool of colder air aloft, but not enough to result in any showers. High pressure will dominate with pleasant weather, chilly nights and mild days, Tuesday through Thursday. This pattern can result in late night and early morning fog patches over lower elevation locations where the temperature and dew point have the greatest chance of matching up, but any fog of this type tends to dissipate quickly as the sun climbs into the morning sky.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring I-90 southward, midday through mid afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm early mainly west of I-495 and north of I-90, then clearing. Lows 52-59. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Dew point falling into 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. A patch of ground fog possible in lowest elevations. Lows 47-54, mildest urban centers. Dew point in 40s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible. Lows ranging from near 40 interior valleys to 50-55 urban areas. Dew point in 40s. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible. Lows 43-50 except milder urban centers. Dew point lower to middle 40s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Higher humidity returns late next week. What remains to be seen is whether or not there will be enough interaction between low pressure to the south and a trough from the west to bring a more significant rain chance into the region into the weekend. A lot of uncertainty in this outlook, so a lot of analysis, tweaking, and fine-tuning to come. The weather follow that period will be somewhat dependent on what happens during that period. A drier scenario would likely mean there was enough blocking high pressure to hold the next system up so that we’d have a shot at unsettled weather later in the period, while a wetter scenario early in the period would more likely lead to a period of fair weather for late period. The forecast method here is not just choosing a model and going with it.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Quick look at the mid September pattern still looks fairly quiet and may turn quite warm for a period of time, but re-evaluation needed based on what takes place before that.

40 thoughts on “Sunday September 1 2024 Forecast (8:07AM)”

  1. Two keys to staying sane as a meteorologist for today…

    1) Don’t obsess over what may or may not happen next weekend. The way I wrote it is the way it should be described.

    2) Tropicals down the road? Well, the heart of tropical season is now, and there remain negative factors, but as always we watch the tropics. But here’s the thing, models we’re looking at are not designed to forecast positions of tropical cyclones that don’t exist yet. These simulations are merely running as they are programmed to. If one particular simulation (example, one run of a particular model) runs to evolve a tropical low pressure area, its simulation will then try to forecast the movement of it. If on the next simulation the initial conditions don’t result in a simulated tropical low pressure area, that “storm” will disappear. But nothing actually disappears, because nothing actually exists in that form yet, and you’re going to get wild swings from run to run. These models do a better job at “finding” mid latitude systems, but even that has a limitation. The two most important terms: “Ensembles” and “Trends”.

    1. More specifically regarding the second point…

      There’s a tropical wave with showers approaching the eastern Caribbean. There’s no organized system. It’s clouds and showers. The model is not going to “know” what to do with this because it doesn’t have the ability to think. So it will simulate, based on its programming, and then what I wrote above applies.

      This system has an under 50% shot at becoming an organize system through 7 days, which now means we have a greater than 50% chance of seeing no named storms in the Atlantic from the last week of August through the first week of September for the first time since 1956!!

      1. Understand completely, but we still have to post that
        it “DISAPPEARED” or is “GONE”. You understand, right?

        btw, as of the 0Z suite and the 6Z for the GFS, said tropical has DISAPPEARED again. 🙂

        Let’s see IF it is back on the 12Z runs.

        1. I completely understand. And I also separate the fact that folks such as yourself love to follow this. Do it. You already know that this guidance has very little use in applied forecasting of such a system so far in advance. But the opportunity often presents itself to remind any readers (and we have many, many who read by don’t post) what the keys are to good forecasting – hence my keys to sanity above haha.

          Honestly Dave, your commentary on my blog is fun. And folks like yourself and Tom (and others – I haven’t named them all) have looked at stuff like this so long you know “what” and “what not” pretty well.

          With having a very regular set of people commenting, this place can resemble an online version of the Cheers bar at times, and it doesn’t bother me at all. 🙂 I also mean that with great respect and admiration for everybody who comes into the “bar”. 🙂

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Staring off pretty warm and muggy this morning YUCK!!!!

    And WELCOME September, perhaps one of the best months
    of the year!

    1. Dew point upper 60s today to a solid stretch of 40s. You’ll definitely notice that difference!

  5. Thanks TK
    I am loving the weather Monday through Thursday with a fall feel. I have a feeling will see one last blast of heat and humidity before summer is out. Summer rarely goes out quietly.

  6. No measurable rain here so far today. On August 20th, my monthly total sat at 4.86″, well above normal the August normal of 3.60″. Since then? A Blutarsky.

  10. The Blutarsky reference reminds me of when I was a freshman at Clarkson College (now University). It was the year before the release of Animal House, and there was a similar idea. It was called the Square Root Club. To become a member, you posted a copy of your grades on a public cork board showing that your GPA would increase if you took its square root. No one was a member of that club for very long!

    1. ha ha ha ha. Good one!

      hmmm let’s see now. IF I had gpa of 3.0
      square root of 3 = 1.7320508075689
      even If I had 4.0
      square root of 4 = 2

      Perhaps with Blutarsky Math it would increase???? 🙂

  11. Watching the clouds that accompany the storms south of Me. They may make it into MA below 90 (where did I hear that 😉 ). But if they do, they look to go SSE of me. AGAIN

      1. I tried to upload an image of lightnjng just south of here in CT. There was a ton. But can’t get IBB to work. We had some within 10 miles and I heard a clap of thunder. That’s all she wrote 🙁

  15. It rained light to moderate in Myles Standish Forest after 3:30 pm til 7pm in a couple different waves. I’d guess we rec’d .1 to .2

    I see Logan officially hit a 70F dp today on Sept 1st.

    Looking forward to a few days of mild days and cool nights. It’s kind of clammy and damp tonight. Not brutal but not ideal.

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