Monday September 2 2024 Forecast (7:06AM)

36 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

A cold front moves offshore and a clearing trend takes over with a decent holiday Monday today – dry weather and lower humidity. High pressure builds in with fair weather continuing through the shortened work / school week, starting out cool Tuesday with chilly nights and warmer days midweek and then slightly higher humidity by the end of the week as the high center will have traversed the Northeast and pushed offshore to the east.

TODAY (LABOR DAY): Lots of clouds early, then increasing sunshine. Highs 71-78. Dew point falls through 50s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog possible in lowest elevations. Lows 47-54, mildest urban centers. Dew point in 40s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible. Lows ranging from near 40 interior valleys to 50-55 urban areas. Dew point in 40s. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible. Lows 43-50 except milder urban centers. Dew point lower to middle 40s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point in 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point rising to 60+. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

A trough from the west and low pressure from the south bring a wet weather threat at some point during the September 7-8 weekend, but magnitude of wet weather threat and timing are uncertain and will be focused on and fine-tuned during the week. Fair weather pattern returns after. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Pattern looks quiet and somewhat warmer mid month.

36 thoughts on “Monday September 2 2024 Forecast (7:06AM)”

  7. Great walking day today.

    BEGINNING OF RANT: I was looking at the tropics this AM and I think what caught me is the number of terms that are used: wave, disturbance, depression, sub-tropical, pre-tropical, Invest, storm, hurricane, post-tropical, remnants, and then we have 5 categories. There may be others.

    Do we need 15 terms to describe the lifecycle of anything? Yes, I know that some of these are possibly redundant, but I think there are half as many terms to describe the human lifecycle. END OF RANT

    1. All we need for tropicals is…

      Wave
      Disturbance
      Depression
      Storm
      Hurricane (category where applicable)
      Post-tropical
      Subtropical

      That’s it.

    1. Next or this? Clearly ZERO RAIN THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!!!!!!

      I didn’t SEE a DROP of rain the entire weekend. NOT a drop!!

    1. I think this year’s hurricane forecast by NOAA/NWS was … shall we say a MISS?! Yes, there is time to go but window is collapsing. I do not like hurricanes so it is okay by me.

      2. We are not quite yet at the peak of hurricane season. More than 50% of the activity in a typical season happens after September 1.

        A “normal” season consists of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. On average, by September 2, we would have 6 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. We’re right about at that pace now, so if activity starts to pick up, as it usually does, we’ll still end up above normal, but maybe not the hyperactive season most forecasts had.

        This is the equivalent of saying the TK’s forecast for a snowy winter is a bust on Christmas Day.

        2. We shall see. And it wouldn’t be by Christmas Day, it would be mid-point in the Winter either about Jan 15
          (and there is a Winter I remember that some may have declared a bust by Jan 15 that turned out to be a record snow year. 🙂 🙂 ) for meteorological Winter or Around Feb 5 for Astronomical Winter.

          So, you may very well be correct, But I still think the NOAA hurricane forecast will be a bust. I HOPE it is.

          We shall see.

          1. With some of the storms we’ve had in March (even April) … winter snowfall forecasts can never really be declared busts until we are literally beyond the ability to snow significantly any further. 🙂

            1. Tis true. But late season hurricanes are rare to non-existent in these parts. The latest I remember is Gloria on 9/27.

              1. For landfalling storms in New England, yes anything serious after the end of September is extremely unlikely.

                But the forecast for the season overall while looking a little shaky now can quickly become more accurate if we get a burst of activity in the back half of the season. Some of our biggest tropical seasons have seen the vast majority of the activity occur after the Sep 10 climate peak.

                So we have a long way to go.

                Nothing much soon though…

              2. 10/4/1869 – Cat 2 Hurricane crosses the Vineyard, then the Mid-Cape before a final landfall near Brusnwick, ME

                10/10/1894 – Cat 1 Hurricane crosses eastern Long Island before making landfall in eastern Connecticut.

                Not Hurricanes, but still tropical storms:

                10/19/1851 – 50 knot TS crosses Block Island before crossing southern RI

                11/3/1861 – 60 knot TS crosses eastern tip of Long Island then makes landfall along the CT/RI border.

                10/19/1923 – 50 knot TS crosses the Vineyard and then makes landfall near Falmouth.

                We had “The Perfect Storm”, which stayed offshore, but was a 60 knot TS at is peak on 10/31/1991, and of course there was Sandy, on 10/29/2012, which was declared extratropical just before landfall near Atlantic City.

  10. Today is the anniversary of the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935.

    The storm made landfall near Long Key, Florida.
    Central pressure: 892 mb (26.35 inches).
    Sustained winds 185 MPH – strongest landfalling storm to date.

    Nearly total obliteration of any buildings, roads, viaducts, and bridges in the 30 mile span from Tavenier and Vaca Key.

    Sadly, 408 deaths occurred, many of them WWI vets in work camps.

    This report from the Long Key weather observer at 6:45 p.m. read: “Plenty of flying timbers, a beam about 18 feet long was blown through the house, wrecking it, nearly striking 3 persons.”

    (From WG Calendar.)

  13. 5 more days to reach the “first time since 1956 no named storms in Atlantic last week of August & first week of September”.

    Two disturbances with 40% chance of development over 7 days. I think we are going to reach it.

  15. I’m of the meteorological opinion that neither of the 2 disturbances with a 40% chance of development (per NHC) through 7 days has anything greater than about a 10% chance of development during the entire window of their existence.

    There’s nothing doing out there in the tropics…

      1. Yup. We will see. I don’t have much faith in anything going out there for a while. Which wouldn’t be bad thing. But we’ll see…

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