Thursday September 5 2024 Forecast (7:15AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

High pressure sits overhead now, then drifts off to our east through Friday. We’ll see abundant sun today and some increase in clouds on Friday, but both days will be quite nice in general, even though humidity starts to climb a little on Friday. This weekend has a bit of complexity thrown into the forecast but turns out ok despite two foul weather systems making runs at our region. The first will be a deepening offshore storm center that will track northward, passing to our east, but close enough to be responsible for a lot of the clouds we see moving in on Friday, and perhaps a few showers skirting Cape Cod late Friday night or early Saturday morning (for now I am keeping these out of the detailed forecast). This system will stir up some rough surf along the coast to start the weekend, so keep that in mind if you have late summer beach / boating plans. Additionally, a couple plumes of high altitude wildfire smoke will give the sky that hazier look at times the next few days. The second system is a trough from the west which will send a front through from west to east, bringing a shower threat over about a 6 to 8 hour time window sometime Saturday night and early Sunday, greatest chance during the overnight hours. This will be followed by a wind shift to west and drier, improved weather during the day Sunday, which continues Monday as high pressure builds in.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point in 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH, most notable along the coast.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, most notable along the coast through midday.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Dew point falling through the 50s. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54. Dew point falling into 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Dew point in 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

High pressure brings generally dry weather with a cool start then a warming trend during much of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

Increased chances for more humid and potentially showery weather early to mid period before a drier, cooler weather returns.

43 thoughts on “Thursday September 5 2024 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  4. Thanks TK !

    Great stretch of weather !!

    Since about August 5th, I have found the hemispheric pattern to be strange and now, the tropics are silent. Bizarre. I find it a little concerning as I figure the atmosphere will make up for this, at some point.

  7. I noticed the NHC called the offshore low as non-tropical, but could acquire subtropical characteristics. The wording seems weird to me … and maybe I am the only one who sees it that way.

  8. 0z GFS

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024090500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_64.png

    6Z GFS

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024090506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_64.png

    Way to be consistent Mr. GFS!!!!

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  11. Re tropics. I Saw this on Twitter last night. Don’t understand it I noted he is followed by a lot of weather folks. There is a fair amount of discussion in the comments.

    “This is what those who are only now coming out about the SFU connection need to think about. This is about everything within the solar cycle itself if you are going to go down this road. Not just one variable. Which seems to be the layman favorite, along with sunspot numbers.”

    https://x.com/jimwindweather/status/1831010460558102868?s=46

    1. Our poor sun gets ignored so badly but so many, yet it’s the #1 driver of all we experience here with weather and climate. The sun, and then everything else.

  20. Quick review. NO changes.

    I had a little chuckle at the 5 “yellow” disturbances on the Atlantic 7-day. Like someone was playing with the yellow paint. They must be getting bored at NHC.

    The records are about to start falling. Two more days for 1956’s last time no named tropicals Aug’s last week and Sep’s 1st week. Eight more days for 1968’s last time no named storms in the 30 day period ending September 13. We have a distinct shot at that too. Remarkable.

    Boston came in at -0.7F for August after a warmer than normal June & July. So this meteorological summer ended up a little warmer than last year’s, which was not going to be hard to accomplish given the lack of 90 degree days at Boston. Even this year, they’ve had more, but nowhere near to being off the charts.

    Boston’s warmer early summer was driven by high minimum temps which were driven by a couple notable things: 1) A relocated sensor CLOSER to the water, resulting in higher humidity and less temperature drop. 2) Higher humidity overall due to a long-lasting Bermuda high at mid summer, in combination with the ongoing HTE, which will be with us for several more years. They did not have particularly blazing high temps this summer, save for a few days, which is typical anyway. It was hotter inland, which is to be expected since inland is “away from the coast”. 😉

  21. Also, if you follow me on Facebook, I finally posted some pics of a super cell t-storm from a chase in late June. If you are not there, I am going to try to create some links to share some of the pics here a bit later. 🙂

  23. 32 years, thats how long my parents been married for, after what my Mom went through last year, my Mom and Dad are finally getting their Ireland trip that they been wanting to go on for so long. TK what are your thoughts on the weather for Ireland second half of September?

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