Tuesday September 10 2024 Forecast (6:47AM)

41 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

A trough pushes offshore this morning taking any clouds with it. High pressure builds in today with a dry northwest breeze and a few passing clouds amidst plenty of sun. We are then in for a stretch of generally sunny days and clear nights, except patchy ground fog in low elevations were radiational cooling is maximized, with high pressure dominating through Friday. Each afternoon will be warmer than the previous one. Saturday, a weak cold front will move through uneventfully from north to south, other than a few clouds and a shift in the wind direction, resulting in a slight cool-down for the start of the weekend while the weather continues fair.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 54-61. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, maybe a little cooler along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 56-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 72-79. Wind NW to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

The large scale pattern will feature some blocking in the atmosphere, with high pressure remaining in control of our weather at least into early next week. If there’s one larger question to answer, it will be whether or not high pressure remains in place and strong enough to keep tropical moisture – remains of Francine – to our south, or will weaken enough to allow it into the region later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

The large scale pattern indications put upper level high pressure further east and introduce a more southerly air flow to our region, increasing the opportunity for higher humidity and wet weather at times. Regardless of the pattern, we will welcome autumn with the equinox at 8:43 a.m. on September 22.

41 thoughts on “Tuesday September 10 2024 Forecast (6:47AM)”

  2. On this date in 1961, TIROS-1, the world’s first successful weather satellite (launched by NASA on April 1 1960), sent the first satellite images of a tropical cyclone back to earth. Centered near 11N/30W, this area two days later was identified as the cyclone (probably a TS when imaged) that would become Hurricane Esther.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Perhaps it is just I, but I have never heard so many crickets being so loud in my entire life. Every night it is a ceritible concert.

    Re: rabbits
    We now have so many rabbits around, they have decided to use our side walk for their droppings. I love the bunnies, but I wish they would use a little discretion where they do their business.

    1. The sound at night is sooooo loud. Are they cicadas?

      We have had a bumper crop of bunnies but I’ve noticed far fewer in the past two ish weeks. I mentioned to my oldest last night. They have two pet bunnies. Interestingly, both have free rein but always use litter box.

        1. Thank you. I wasn’t sure until someone mentioned the cicadas are loud. But I didn’t think we had them either. I’ll listen carefully tonight

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Needless to say, it’s VERY dry out there. Trees and vegetation are suffering. While I think that Northern New England, which has had periodic rain since August 21st, will have beautiful fall foliage this year, I strongly disagree with Eric Fisher, among others, who’ve said that this dry stretch won’t matter for foliage around here. It will. It already is. I’m seeing younger trees especially suffering, some dropping all their leaves now, many of which didn’t turn any color other than brown or yellow. And drooping green leaves in mid September on the larger trees is also not a good sign. It means they’re water-deprived. The process by which foliage coloration occurs is conditioned on at least some periodic water reaching the green leaves.

    1. The way Eric explained it was really odd. I’m sorry to rant. But he basically claimed that because the oak and maple trees had ample water prior to August 20th the drought wouldn’t be a problem. Well, a 10or 14 day drought, yes. There’s certainly enough storage capacity for that. But not a 21 day or longer drought. Oak and maple trees are not cactuses, Eric.

  6. Leave it to Nate Silver to wade into the `debate’ on Fahrenheit v. Celsius. He seems to imply in the tweet below that Fahrenheit is somehow better than Celsius. Is he trolling? Look, the rest of the world uses Celsius and for good reason. I like Fahrenheit, by the way, but I don’t think anyone could argue that it is better than Celsius. https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1833455121293844914

  9. The track of Francine leaves New Orleans, coastal Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida susceptible to tornadoes in what will be that right front quadrant.

  10. TK, I respectfully disagree. Take a look at the trees right now. Some are really struggling. And as I mentioned this is particularly problematic for young trees. On my walk (still can’t run) along the Esplanade Park, but also Memorial Drive I saw dozens of young maples and oaks shedding brown and yellow leaves. Some were already bare. In early/mid September. That’s a sign of water-deprivation. It may not technically count as drought. But 3 weeks of no rain AND exceptionally dry air (at least for the time of year) for deciduous trees is an issue. I’m not being alarmist, as I’m sure most trees will recover. Plus, it’s a natural process. We go through periods like this. But I do think it will impact our (SNE) foliage, though not NNE, as I mentioned above.

    1. I’ve been doing agricultural meteorology since 1990. I know my trees. The ones suffering are aged. This is going to happen either way.

      Drought is not currently an issue. We’re not even in one.

  11. I received my flu and Covid-19 shots yesterday. I feel ok other than a stiff arm. The person who gave me the shots wanted me to “relax my arm like you’re watching tv.”

    How can I “relax” while two needles are being jabbed into my skin? 😉

    1. Next year at this time, u might be able to get both in one shot. Anyways, the research suggests to wait a period of time to get a booster after a COVID infection. I think it’s like 2-3 months. You want the body to produce a strong response to the vaccine to provide protection. Recovering from a recent infection ur body won’t produce a strong enough reaction.

  12. Joshua how are you feeling? The fact that you have already posted a few times so far today you must be feeling considerably better. I hope so. 🙂

    Joshua, does a Covid-19 shot do you any good after you get Covid? Or is it too late by then? I have always wondered about that.

  13. Ongoing recon flight in Francine showing some strengthening after leveling off yesterday and overnight.

    SE Quadrant flight level winds hitting 50 – 60 knots. Pressure somewhere around 988-990 mb

  15. Another glorious day.

    Re drought. Respectfully, I am inclined to agree with TK. I questioned that nothing was showing on the drought map in our area since we have missed so many rain chances all summer. But we also had second highest humidity since records began. No matter how hot it got, we had wet ground every morning.

    Being able to be back on the deck….two mornings in a row (yay)….i noticed the older trees that are not quite as healthy are changing color and dropping leaves. But this is typical. All else seems healthy.

    https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MA

  17. 12Z GFS version of Francine at landfall

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024091012&fh=36&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

    NAM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024091012&fh=36&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

    HRRR

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024091012&fh=30&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

    ICON

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2024091012&fh=30&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

  20. Regarding trees, I am NOT an expert. I defer to others like TK. I’m just observing. And I’m seeing young trees – dozens of them – shedding leaves prematurely (some are bare) – in the Esplanade Park and along Memorial Drive. It could very well be a fungus or some illness. Maybe the trees got Treepox. They do look very dry, as does the grass (mostly brown) and other vegetation.

    On Covid shots, Philip, it’s advised not to get one for at least 3 months after having recovered from Covid. I had my mildest bout of the 5 I’ve had. So I’m lucky. I’ll wait until January to get a Novavax jab. I’ll get a flu shot in October. My worst symptom is rather extreme fatigue. But that makes sense with a back-to-back attack from two separate viruses, plus the travel and a ton of work.

    1. A lot of recently planted trees don’t survive well. I don’t think a lot of landscaping places are doing proper research these days…

      1. Agree. And wondered the same thing Chris M mentioned about mulch.

        I offen see trees planted to form a type of screen die quickly.

        We are in a 12 year old neighborhood and our trees hold onto their leaves well past when older more established trees lose theirs.

      2. My wife does volunteer work at our town’s public library. There was a plan to remove an ornamental pear tree that was planted when the library was built 20 years ago. She cleared some of the area around the tree by hand so that when the guy with the chainsaw came he could cut close to the ground. She gently pushed on the tree and it fell over! The roots were so bound up that she was able to pull the tree out by hand. After 20 years, the roots are still in the shape of the bucket!

        https://ibb.co/mXYZhG1

    2. Are these trees surrounded by a mulch volcano? Stacking too much mulch around them will suffocate the tree, especially the smaller trees. Its strange how many landscapers will just keep throwing mulch over existing mulch every year creating this volcano appearance. How do they not know this is suffocating trees? Roger Cook from This Old House did a nice video segment on it. He was my neighbor growing up and he will sadly be missed.

      1. In many cases yes. I have seen a LOT of landscapers use way too much mulch. Seems it’s because it’s a “good look” for the grounds, but this isn’t good for the actual trees. Somewhere the ability to do things like this correctly, and many other things, is getting lost. It seems a lot of good knowledge and experience is being cast aside. It makes me feel like people like my father, who knew how to fix basically anything, carried knowledge that is going to be forgotten within a couple generations. Sad.

        2. What a wonderful memory of your dad. Big smile. ❤️

          Mac couldn’t fix a lot. He grew up moving place to place. Two things he did know. Earth worms were great for the soil and garden and you never built mulch up around the base of a tree.

          I love that something so small can bring big smiles.

Comments are closed.