DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
A blocking pattern keeps high pressure in place through late week, with fair weather and a warming trend. A dry cold front passages and a new high pressure area in Quebec will keep the weather fair but a touch cooler for the weekend.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 54-61. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, maybe a little cooler along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 56-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 72-79. Wind NW to NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)
The large scale pattern will continue to feature some blocking in the atmosphere, with high pressure remaining in control of our weather early to mid next week. Later in the week a more southerly air flow will allow more humidity to arrive and a chance of some shower activity – details TBD. Temperatures near to above normal.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)
A little more interaction of moisture from the south and jet stream / cooler air masses from the north means a better shot at some shower activity at times and somewhat variable temperatures. Far too soon for daily details. The autumnal equinox occurs at 8:43 a.m. on September 22.
Careful…
Thanks TK !
On the way into school, its been heat in the car.
On the way home, its been A/C.
This weather has been awesome !!!
Good morning and thank you TK
Temp fell to 52 here this morning.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-1206A-FRANCINE.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=wv_mid
For the shear its dealing with, pretty decent system with pressures in the mid 970s.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_7d0.png
That yellow, low area of the US southeast coast.
A watcher for the medium range.
It might be nice if somehow, this verifies, we could get some moisture off of it.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024091100&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024091100&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks, TK.
Thank you, TK
Down to 44 overnight.
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=AU611&hours=72
Thanks TK
Hope Hadi, Joshua and TKs mom are all feeling better today.
Second THAT!
Tropical Storm 7:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Seven
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024091100&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.weather.gov/images/lix/graphicast/small1.png
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KHDC_loop.gif
Believe it or not, the 3rd link is the only link I have been trying to post 🙂 🙂 🙂
New Orleans Radar
Thanks Tk . Quick comment on last nights talk about mulch . As you all know I do landscaping on the side in the summer very successfully. I was taught the rule of thumb is the mulch goes down 2 inches thick . Now as I’m not measuring lol , everyone knows if you are going heavy or light ( if you don’t you should not be landscaping!! On my jobs I’m going in the middle & that is not to light , not to heavy & nice medium coating like I was taught ( giving me about 2” deep . On some jobs customers might say go real heavy , go real light & I’ll tell them you go in between . As far as going over existing much , I hade a lot of repeat customers every year that want the normal weed, edge & mulch . I always rake out old mulch as how would you not if you are doing the proper basic bed preparation of weeding & raking . Mulch should not be heavy in beds or around trees !!! As far as mounding around trees , mulch should stay off base of tree & I have more customers tell me please make sure you keep mulch off tree base . It all comes down to if you are doing basic landscaping ( for money ) know what you are doing & educate yourself on the trade .
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis_swir
Maybe Francine looking a little better the last hour or 2 ?????
another look
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif
Trees are already taking on a “fall-like” tinge, especially on the tops. I don’t know if there’s an upcoming long term drought but I believe foliage colors will still be nice this year. Just my hope.
Does this mean an early fall perhaps?
Early turning trees are reactionary, so they don’t predict anything, such as early fall or any potential drought. They are reacting to past and current conditions.
I am pretty certain the colors will be fairly decent this autumn though, based on quite a few early season cool nights and the recent dry pattern. Both of those are beneficial for color bursts.
Pool at the complex back up to 72°. I’m near pvd. Airport in Warwick.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KLCH_loop.gif
Landfall soon.
To Michael C. … Ok “Derek” …. Hey hey! 🙂
(inside joke from many years ago)
If you all could spare some good thoughts for mom, she’s heading to the ER to hopefully get some exhaustion and confusion (due to lack of sleep) under control. I’ll update when I can!
Wishing her the best.
Oh TK. I’m so sorry to hear this. Prayers continue.
Positive thoughts for your mom, TK.
Praying, TK. And thank you.
Best of luck Tk
Positive thoughts and prayers TK.
Prayers for your mom TK!
I don’t need a map to tell me it’s dry. I’ve been watering my front lawn off and on for the last 3 days (2” total measured) in preparation for core aerating this morning. Ground was still bone dry and it would not pull any plugs. The warmer temps this week will not help.
This map is also over a week old…
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MA
This is probably a better representation of how dry it’s been, soil moisture %
blob:https://www.drought.gov/c35fc9e9-5c96-41ec-be8d-33147cc66c0b
That didn’t work. Try this.
https://www.drought.gov/topics/soil-moisture
Thanks Ace. And Interesting. Rain consistently went east and west oe north and south of me and this doesn’t show we are dry.
Francine landfalling as a cat 2.
Pressure back down to 972 mb.
Shear is making it look less than impressive on satellite, while it looks decently better on radar.
Good swath of rain with this one – flooding will be an issue obviously. Wind / storm surge are notable, but not off the charts.
Looks like TD7 has a bit of a future out there in the MDR but may end up as a storm for the fish only.
Thanks TK !
Mike is chasing
https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/1834016060007215406?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ
Photo taken 9/10/24
The Bridge Fire in the Angeles National Forest exploded to ~47k acres with 0% containment.
The fire was quite visible last night from behind the Los Angeles skyline photographed the Baldwin Hills area.
A sad reality of fire season in LA.
https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1834008047640773034?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ
My grandson is reading past present future hurricane nsmed. Did we ever go thru the alphabet and start over again
In 2005 and 2020 we got through the list and went to the Greek alphabet
Thank you. I’ll let my grandson know.
Just a quick update on my mom…
She’s OK but not OK. As in she’s in a great place to be taken care of, but there’s some critical timing that is needed…
She was recently put on a stronger diuretic combo to rid her body of nearly 25 pounds of accumulated fluid from congestive heart failure. My mother is a very small lady, and 25 pounds of extra water is a lot for her. Well, the meds worked, almost too well. Yes, she lost the water and then some, but the problem with being on a med like this is you don’t really sleep much, and she was up so frequently in the middle of the night that she was getting hardly any REM sleep for 2 weeks, and the med can also cause electrolytes, calcium, and potassium to go wonky and drop too low. Calcium is dangerously low, and they have to re-introduce it to the system very carefully and slowly or it can trigger kidney issues, so they have put her in ICU in order to closely monitor this process. The good news is her lung x-rays, brain scan, and most of her bloodwork are NORMAL! So that’s working in her favor that there are no other issues ongoing. So she needs time and we need a bit of good luck to get this going in a better direction. But we’re optimistic. 🙂
Thank you, TK. Prayers for your mom, her medical team and you and your family.
Prayers also for the ICU staff but I know they will all absolutely love her
Glad they figured things out and have a plan. Continued prayers for her and your family.
Thank you everybody!
New fcst post…
I literally changed almost nothing in today’s update other than the initial discussion, adding DAY 5, and a little change on the last section. That’s about it.