Saturday September 14 2024 Forecast (7:53AM)

31 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

High pressure is reinforced from Quebec this weekend as a weak front has pushed through the region. This will turn the wind more northeasterly today, but not very strong, so we’ll still see pretty mild to warm air, just a slight cooling trend the next couple days, most notable in coastal areas. This particular high is not tapping a very cool air mass as that has shifted west for the time being. It’s just a continuation of the blocking pattern that’s keeping our region dry and South and Southeast unsettled, including the remains of Francine. The earliest we have a chance of seeing any of that moisture come this far north would be the end of this 5-day forecast period – Wednesday – and even that is not a very significant chance, which is higher toward the South Coast than anywhere else. I’ll monitor that part of the outlook. Otherwise it’s dry weather, and even another warm-up early in the week as we roll through the late days of summer 2024.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Areas of low clouds and fog overnight. Lows 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early fog / low clouds in some areas. Otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential showers South Coast. Highs 68-75. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

The potential for humid weather and showers exists early in the period, but will depend on how much give there is in a high pressure area and as a result how far north moisture can make it. The trend after is dry and cooler from eastern Canadian high pressure. Autumnal equinox is 8:43 a.m. September 22.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

There may be a renewed push of moisture and warmer air from the south with some wet weather chances returning at some point during this period. A lot of details to work out in the battle between that and drier air from the north as the ongoing large scale pattern doesn’t change all that much.

31 thoughts on “Saturday September 14 2024 Forecast (7:53AM)”

    1. The N HEM is blocked. Where it’s dry, it stays dry. Where it rains, it keeps raining.

      This pattern is not entirely the result of, but is part of, the combination of the long lasting effects of the Hunga Tonga volcano and the Atlantic Nina, as well as the stronger-than-expected peak of Solar Cycle 25, combined with longer term climate warming. It’s a combination we have not been able to witness in our observing history, and therefore a lot is to be learned, as I have said many times, and will keep saying, because of the extreme importance of including ALL the information instead of just one label. Media loves to do the latter and I’ll keep fighting them on it. 😉

    2. This is a weak front, introducing a modified martime polar air mass, so you won’t see a big dew point crash as we did with the continental polar air mass we recently had. Source region has nearly everything to do with it. The air mass we get later next week will be a cooler one, but also of maritime origin.

      1. Sure, I get that. But even so, I fully expected a “slight” drop in the dew point say from low 60s to at least upper 50s or even mid 50s. Was not expecting 40s. 🙂

        So, we get what we get. Not much we can do about it.

    1. Stable but still out of it. She was in really bad shape when she got there. Calcium & potassium are improved. Electrolytes will take longer. Blood infection is still being battled with IV anti-b’s. The lack of sleep for 10+ days had a significant impact as well.

      Time and patience needed. The former will tell us where this is going, but at the moment I remain optimistic.

      1. Just back home. So sorry that your mom is struggling. Any kind of infection …even a UTI…can cause tremendous confusion. And your mom got a triple whammy. Prayers continue.

    1. It’s much better in eastern Mass, close to the ocean, as you’re pointing out.

      I was in Wellesley at a college field hockey game and it was over 80F with blazing sun on the stands. (I won’t mention what the score was, let’s just say Wellesley college had a different level of talent that Bridgewater) 🙂

        1. The out of conference games are a mix seemingly where sometimes Bridgewater is more talented than the opponent but it also happens in reverse.

          Last year it was Castleton who had a player from England and another 2 from Switzerland and the players would have been better served in division 2, maybe even division 1. Bridgewater is division 3.

          I’m a big believer in the benefits of an early season difficult non conference schedule. Even if you get smoked, I’ve always thought it raises your level of play.

          Marshfield HS football team, division 2, started at division 1 St John’s prep and then followed that up with always strong Methuen. Then they go to division play and the teams down here just don’t have the talent of St. John’s prep of Methuen.

          Anyhow, seems Wellesley has a large talent pool. The players listed on their roster were from all over the country whereas Bridgewater’s roster is all from eastern Mass.

          I knew nothing of field hockey 3 yrs ago but I really like watching it now.

  15. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.png

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

    After August 5th, I still feel surprised at the rest of the month and the pattern we had.

    With that said, I think arctic sea ice hit minimum at 4th lowest min in the 40+ yrs of recording keeping and Hudson Bay waters are mostly a could degrees C above average.

    Think it’s going to be hard to manufacture chill in Canada for a while.

    Not implying it will be hot here, I just don’t think we’re looking at any early 60s on a cool NW wind anytime soon.

    Lots of 70s and some 80s for a good while to come.

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