Monday September 16 2024 Forecast (7:15AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

High pressure continues its influence on our weather with fair and warm conditions early this week, but you’ll notice some increasing high cloudiness from the south later today and especially Tuesday. This is fanning off low pressure that is organizing off the US Southeast Coast and moving onshore into the Carolinas. By Wednesday, we lose our high pressure area but because of the blocking still in place in the atmosphere, the low to the south isn’t going to come up the coast that much. It just drifts up in this direction for a while – enough to thicken the clouds and spread some of its rain into at least the South Coast region by late Wednesday. How far north this comes is still in question, but the region overall stands the greatest chance of seeing wet weather from this system Wednesday night and Thursday. By Friday, we’ll already see high pressure from the north regaining control and starting to push this system back out to the south. During mid to late week we’ll have transitioned from our current warmth to a cooler regime…

TODAY: Sun – filtered by the arrival of high clouds from south to north later. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: High cloudiness spreads across the sky. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun – dimmed by the thickening of high clouds south to north. Highs 77-84, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Potential rain South Coast by late-day. Highs 74-81. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Potential rain, greatest chance South Coast. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic rain is most likely from the I-90 belt southward. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds linger. Rain chance may hang on South Coast. Lows 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloud / sun mix. Highs 63-70. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at the coast.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Canadian high pressure is expected to be strong enough to provide dry but cooler weather for the September 21-22 weekend. We welcome autumn with the equinox at 8:43 a.m. on September 22. Pattern looks dry and milder early next week, but another surge of wet weather may make a run at the region from the southward around the middle of next week – something to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Indications are for high pressure domination – mainly fair weather, a cool push then a moderating trend.

48 thoughts on “Monday September 16 2024 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    I have a sneaky feeling that Boston gets through this week with NO measurable rain. When it is dry, it tends to stay dry. We shall see.

    2. I was thinking the same for here.

      My DIL sent me a video of the blackstone river canal that runs behind their house. It is so low that fish are grouped together in small areas that have water. And that was one of the areas that had considerable flooding earlier in the season.

    1. Sometimes, these unnamed things are every bit as productive as fully developed systems but because its not named, it catches folks by surprise.

  12. TK, what are the prospects for viewing the full moonrise tomorrow evening? Is the cloud cover likely to obscure it, or do you think it will be more scattered? Thanks.

    1. I think it’ll be viewable, but not bright. It’ll be filtered by high clouds and possibly some thin high altitude smoke. This may actually make it look pretty neat. I think enough dry air is in place that the high clouds won’t be super-thick at moonrise.

  15. Brother reports lots of clouds otherwise much nicer weather in Hilton Head today, calmer ocean. “The dolphins are back.” He’s down there for the week. The weather app was all gloom and doom for where he is but it’ll be wrong about most of it. The rough weather has shifted to the north of there.

    Meanwhile out in the tropics, the Atlantic Nina induced northward displacement of the African monsoon keeps our tropical season muted in terms of the Cape Verde portion of the season. This is the same set-up that has shifted the rain into the Sahara, an area not typically wet. But once upon 6000 years ago that region was lush and green. It’s important to look at much longer term things regarding the climate of the planet IN ADDITION to the shorter term stuff (as in our period of observing directly, which is VERY short in a relative sense). I’m not sure how many people realize how important this is. I know the media doesn’t mention it much, if ever. Not that I’m surprised. 🙂

  16. Quick summary on mom…

    Overall: Improving. She’s still getting lots of rest, which is needed. She is MUCH more coherent than when she went in 5 days ago.

    Electrolytes, calcium, potassium all continue to come back to normal. GOOD!

    Hyperthyroidism diagnosis. Not good, but not terrible. Treatable. And not surprised at this finding, actually.

    Continuing to treat for blood infection via IV antibiotics. It’s under control.

    Transfer to rehab within a few days, and the stay there is estimated to be about 4 weeks.

    Thanks for all the good thoughts and prayers. 🙂

  18. My lawn looked better in mid July. This time of year it’s supposed to be coming out of dormancy and looking great. Oh well. Here’s to the rain dance!

    2. The GFS simulation is text book for that scenario.

      Closed upper low developing in the Ohio Valley.

      Atlantic ridge extending north to Newfoundland.

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