DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
A quick “K” spike last night, the measure of disturbances in the Earth’s magnetic field, a result of the most recent solar storm, resulting in a relatively short-lived but somewhat decent display of the aurora, or northern lights, mainly during the 11 p.m. hour. Limiting factors in the ability to see this were the bright nearly-full moon, a thin veil of high altitude wildfire smoke, and in southern areas, some high cloudiness. However there were some observations of it and some images captured (I observed the upper reddish portion of the “curtain” faintly before 11:30 p.m. while the greenish lower portion was too close to the horizon and washed out by light pollution in my location – but seen in some areas). While not expected tonight, if a surprise instance did occur, it’d be less likely to be seen with additional high clouds and a full moon shining. In other weather news, our warm spell is on its last legs, but will still be with us today, and still fairly mild to warm for some inland areas tomorrow, so it’s not quite over yet. But we’re going to see a change coming up and the feel of fall coming back before fall arrives. How does that all unfold during these final 5 days of summer? High pressure sits atop us today while to the south low pressure that has brought wind and rain to parts of the Southeast and southern Mid Atlantic spreads its high cloud shield northward. You’ll notice the sun filtered to dimmed at times today by those clouds, as well as some lingering high altitude wildfire smoke, but we’ll still see a fair amount of sun nonetheless. Away from a slightly cooling ocean breeze, many locations will crack 80 for high temps. As low pressure, while weaker, edges closer to our region from the south Wednesday and Thursday, in response to some give in the high pressure area, we’ll have heavier cloud cover, and the evolution of a steadier regional onshore flow, with a cooling trend. The ongoing question: How much rain gets into southern New England from the south? Some will, but just as this push of rain takes place, a reinforced high pressure area in eastern Canada will start pushing things in the other direction, and dry air will be eating away at the northern side of the moisture from the south. As it stands, the South Coast, up to about the I-90 belt, has the best chance of measurable rainfall between Wednesday night and Friday morning, before the system is pushed back to the south. This will return us to dry weather and some clearing, though clouds may hang around much of Friday before we have more of a sun/cloud mix Saturday. One thing’s for sure, it will be noticeably cooler by the end of this week. Additionally, Boston is in the midst of a long spell with no measurable rain. This is the 28th straight day of that, and the 5th longest stretch on record. The 4th longest is 29 days from 1930. Boston should tie that. Will they break it? Since measurable rain is no guarantee there, it’s very possible. I’ll talk about the rest of the list in the comments section and in future updates if the streak continues beyond this midweek rain threat.
TODAY: Sunshine often filtered to dimmed by high clouds and high altitude smoke. Highs 77-84, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Full Harvest Moon veiled by high clouds and lingering high altitude smoke, then may fade behind thicker clouds later at night. Patchy ground fog forming mainly interior lower elevations – valleys, swamps, bogs. Lows 54-61. Wind calm to SE under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Potential rain South Coast by late-day. Highs 74-81. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Potential rain, greatest chance South Coast. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic rain is most likely from the I-90 belt southward. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds linger. Rain chance may hang on South Coast. Lows 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Clouds dominate / intervals of sun. Highs 63-70. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at the coast.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)
Dry weather, starting cool then moderating from the end of the weekend into early next week. Will have to watch for another push of low pressure from the south and west toward the middle of the week with a rain threat.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)
Overall pattern still looks dry with high pressure in control most of the time. A cooler push earlier in the period, then some moderation again.
Thanks TK !
Nice job with the Aurora !!
Thanks! Tough catch last night with the moon etc.
I’ll see if I can pop that pic up here…
Top 5 stretches with no measurable rain in Boston…
5: Current stretch, at 28 days.
4: 1930, 29 days.
3: 1915, 36 days.
2: 1999, 37 days.
1: 1924, 44 days.
Good morning and thanks, TK.
From WGC…
September 17 1923: Dry Diablo winds from the north northeast spread a wildfire across much of the northeastern part of Berkeley, CA, reaching almost to Hearst and Shattuck on the northwest corner of the UC campus. The ringing of the university’s Campanile bells called students to provide help to the adjacent community. Hundreds turned out to help, including the football team leaving their practice. In a couple hours, 577 homes and burned to the ground, but amazingly without a single death. Many of the destroyed homes housed university professors and other staff, along with private housing for about 1000 students.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/pSRjnUPGqcJMLt967
Aurora from Woods Hill, Woburn MA…
11:22 p.m. 9/16/2024.
Really nice !!
Very nice. I could see some purple huesVERY faintly. I looked when I saw Emily’s comment followed by yours on FB. Sadly I can’t sit out due to EEE so couldn’t see enough to grab a photo.
Thanks, TK.
Constipation in the atmosphere (hint: blocking):
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1835777548170473925
http://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMRH.html
4.5 inches of rain in 3 hrs in Morehead City.
Southwest of Wilmington, NC got much higher amounts and I am seeing in news reports, it being referred to as a 1 in 1,000 yr event. (Just reporting that 🙂 )
Either eric or Pete explained the meaning of that not long ago. Wish I’d saved it, but whomever it was made a lot of sense.
Thanks TK. I hope your Mom is doing ok.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Thanks TK
Thank you, TK. Loving the cool air working back in.
I know I haven’t been on lately but things have been very difficult for both my husband and me medically. I am just hoping that fate will get better for us. Lots of decisions to make.
All the best Rainshine, for both you and your husband.
Sending hopeful thoughts.
Oh no Rainshine. I am so sorry to hear this. I will keep you both in my prayers. And hope you both improve soon.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
This La Nina is now at its best version of itself.
The western Caribbean Sea is really, really warm.
I can’t tell, but it looks like the long term signals of a system are originating from the western Caribbean.
Its about the upper level atmospheric conditions. If they are ever right, there’s a lot of heat to release from the western Caribbean through a good part of the Gulf of Mexico.
Recent examples are Ian and Michael.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-met&rh=2024091712&fh=174&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
Off and running on the 12z GFS
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024091712&fh=216&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024091712&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024091712&fh=228&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024091712&fh=282&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Top 2 are GDPS, bottom 2 are GFS
Interesting. We shall see. Perhaps we’ll get some rain??????
Rainshine, I’m sorry to hear about you and your husband’s health struggles. Take care.
Eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980: https://x.com/historyinmemes/status/1835959123730448796
I remember that well. Mac’s sister was living in Spokane then. We visited her in the late 1990s and drove east and could still see ash lining the road.
Thanks,,Joshua
Found this on NC and 1 in 1000
https://x.com/sottnet/status/1836070213332181230?s=61
https://x.com/peteweatherbeat/status/1835792773586296951?s=61
https://x.com/habituallybee/status/1836013305770434842?s=61
Historic rain has fallen across Carolina Beach, Southport, and BSL today. Volunteer gauges have recorded over a foot of rain since midnight. NOAA Atlas 14 shows 12″/12 hr occurs, on average, once every 200 years. 18″/12hr is once every 1000 years! hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pfds/pfds_map_… #ncwx
Panic maps out for late September early October. Lol!
Every single time ………..
And they’ll get plastered all over the fakecast pages like it’s a lock. 😉
Death toll from the torrential rains and flooding in Central and Eastern Europe is now 21, with many people missing. It’s catastrophic flooding in some places.
Just got out of the ocean in Narragansett 68° water temperature. Three foot swell from the southeast eight to ten seconds period. Probably the the last time in the water. Then Sarasota Siesta Key Beach hopefully next month.
The 1 in 1000 year definition, explained recently by SAK, is that the event has a 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year.
The 1 in 1000 year portion is very misleading, and I dislike its use.
It’s just a very low probability event for any given location.
I didn’t see SAKs or I saw it after either Pete or Eric said the same. Thank yoin. And that is what I posted above and to me it makes sense. It also illustrates how many times we are having event that should…..and in this instance I’ll use rhe word should……are happening far more often.
https://www.usharbors.com/harbor/Massachusetts/Boston-Harbor-ma/tides?tide=2024-09#monthly-tide-chart
Major high tides rest of the week.
Persistent onshore wind about to develop.
Nothing major, but issues over multiple high tides at eastern Mass shore roads may be in play.
High tide Friday in Boston harbor at 1:30 pm is 11.8 ft which means there’s not much room to take on surge and at least splash over is a guarantee with modest waves.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024091712&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
New fcst post…