Wednesday September 18 2024 Forecast (7:31AM)

29 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Blocking continues, but shifts a little to allow low pressure to the south to press northward the next few days. This throws a cloud shield into our region, still initially battling dry air but finally to win out over it tonight. The now shorter-term question to answer is the northern extent of the rain shield and the amount of rain that falls. While some shorter range guidance has trended a little wetter, but not consistently run-to-run, I am still reluctant to jump on that bandwagon and go for a more solid rain event, other than perhaps the South Coast region. The radar may look impressive for a while as the shield works its way into the I-90 belt and even a bit north, but this will still be up against a rebuilding dry high pressure area in eastern Canada, and a squeeze-play will be on. The dry air can significantly cut back on how much rain survives / makes it to the ground in the northern portion of the precipitation shield. We see this in winter events too when trying to forecast snowfall amounts in a similar synoptic set-up. So other than prolonging the impact of this low through Thursday, and into part of Friday, my forecast isn’t changing drastically regarding its impact. Another aspect of this situation will be a gusty northeasterly wind combined with astronomically high tides, which will lead to several high tide cycles of splash-over and some minor inundation in prone locations. Be aware of this if you live in or are traveling to coastal areas the next few days. As we get into the weekend, the dry air wins out again, and while we still may see a fair amount of clouds Saturday, the sun will become more dominant with time Saturday through Sunday, and it will be rain-free, but breezy at first, and quite a bit cooler than we’ve been in recent days. Autumn arrives with the equinox at 8:43 a.m. EDT on Sunday.

TODAY: Areas of fog until mid morning. Limited sun – clouds eventually thicken from south to north later. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain South Coast. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periodic rain is most likely from the I-90 belt southward. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic rain, again greatest chance from the I-90 belt southward. Lows 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain potential continues especially morning and mostly south of I-90. Highs 63-70. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Dry, cool start then moderation. Watch for another push of low pressure from the south and west with a potential rain threat around the middle of next week before drier weather returns.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Overall pattern still looks dry with high pressure in control most of the time. A cooler push earlier in the period, then some moderation again.

29 thoughts on “Wednesday September 18 2024 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Earlier I thought that Boston would see no measurable rain. Now not so sure anymore. Will be close.

    fwiw Pete was kind of buying the guidance for more rain, perhaps into Saturday.

    We shall see.

    6z Nam has 2 inches up to Boston.
    other models not so much.

    Ascfor thevtropical, gfs and cmc on board. euro says Nope.

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  3. Thanks, TK.

    Any rain would be beneficial at this point. But there may be a lot of “chomp, chomp” going on north of, say, Providence/Plymouth.

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  9. Two forecasting rules of thumb to remember in terms of both the short term and medium term forecasts:

    1. “When in drought, leave it out”
    2. “Droughts end in floods”

    1 – As TK has mentioned, I’d lean toward the lighter end of rainfall amounts for most of the region for the end of this week, especially north of the Pike.
    2 – Many models show the remnants of a tropical bringing copious amounts of rain here toward next weekend. That’s the kind of thing needed to break the dry pattern.

    Forgot to post it here, but this is my album of pictures from my cruise to Atlantic Canada last week:

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/wP2wj5mVngwvXSdQ9

    We got back to Boston at daybreak last Thursday. I got some phenomenal shots of sunrise over Deer Island, as well as some of the city and the lighthouses with great pre-dawn color. The other stops on the trip were Halifax, NS; Sydney, NS (Cape Breton Island); Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island; and Corner Brook, Newfoundland.

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    3. I saw the album and I know I messaged you about it before but I’ll reiterate here – great collection and especially love the sunrise shots on the return. Definitely my kind of set-up. I need to make some beach trips at sunrise soon, now that the sunrises are a little later.

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  13. I really don’t think that much is going to fall from this upcoming event for most of the region (maybe a healthy little shot for the far southeastern areas). Otherwise, this looks like a pretty decent fail to me.

    Come on atmosphere, surprise me! I have doubted your ability to do this all along. 😉

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  15. Not to verify before it’s happened, but you’ve nailed this event there TK. There was plenty of model guidance that coulda supported 1-3”+ across all of eastern MA. Same reason they bust on the north side of these setups all the time in the winter…

    (Also, hello everyone!) Haven’t posted in ages but I do still try to read the blog most days! It has unfortunately been a very active and challenging fire season here in California, and that has kept me quite busy. But hope everyone here is doing well and hope to chime in more heading into the winter!

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    2. Was just thinking about you … figured it was very busy out there!

      As always it’s great to hear from you and look forward to when you can chime in going forward. 🙂

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    4. Well this made my day. Hi WxWatcher. It’s great to hear from you and to know you are well. But the fires are so very sad. Take care and please be safe

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        1. Indeed. Although that may not be complete fiction, as that area stands the best chance at producing tropical activity in the coming couple weeks.

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